Paul W. Eslinger

Maximum reasonable radioxenon releases from medical isotope production facilities and their effect on monitoring nuclear explosions

Fission gases such as (133)Xe are used extensively for monitoring the world for signs of nuclear testing in systems such as the International Monitoring System (IMS). These gases are also produced by nuclear reactors and by fission production of (99)Mo for medical use. Recently, medical isotope production facilities have been identified as the major contributor to the background of radioactive xenon isotopes (radioxenon) in the atmosphere (Stocki et al., 2005; Saey, 2009). These releases pose a potential future problem for monitoring nuclear explosions if not addressed. As a starting point, a maximum acceptable daily xenon emission rate was calculated, that is both scientifically defendable as not adversely affecting the IMS, but also consistent with what is possible to achieve in an operational environment. This study concludes that an emission of 5 × 10(9) Bq/day from a medical isotope production facility would be both an acceptable upper limit from the perspective of minimal impact to monitoring stations, but also appears to be an achievable limit for large isotope producers.

Minimum Hellinger distance estimation of mixture proportions

Beran (1977) showed that, under certain restrictive conditions, the minimum distance estimator based on the Hellinger distance (MHDE) between a projection model density and a nonparametric sample density is an exception to the usual perception that a robust estimator cannot achieve full efficiency under the true model. We examine the MHDE in the case of estimation of the mixing proportion in the mixture of two normals. We discuss the practical feasibility of employing the MHDE in this setting and examine empirically its robustness properties. Our results indicate that the MHDE obtains full efficiency at the true model while performing comparably with the minimum distance estimator based on Cramer-von Mises distance under the symmetric departures from component normality considered.

Analysis of data from sensitive U.S. monitoring stations for the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactor accident

The March 11, 2011 9.0 magnitude undersea megathrust earthquake off the coast of Japan and subsequent tsunami waves triggered a major nuclear event at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power station. At the time of the event, units 1, 2, and 3 were operating and units 4, 5, and 6 were in a shutdown condition for maintenance. Loss of cooling capacity to the plants along with structural damage caused by the earthquake and tsunami resulted in a breach of the nuclear fuel integrity and release of radioactive fission products to the environment. Fission products started to arrive in the United States via atmospheric transport on March 15, 2011 and peaked by March 23, 2011. Atmospheric activity concentrations of (131)I reached levels of 3.0×10(-2) Bqm(-3) in Melbourne, FL. The noble gas (133)Xe reached atmospheric activity concentrations in Ashland, KS of 17 Bqm(-3). While these levels are not health concerns, they were well above the detection capability of the radionuclide monitoring systems within the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

An Initial Assessment of Hanford Impact Performed with the System Assessment Capability

The System Assessment Capability is an integrated system of computer models and databases to assess the impact of waste remaining at Hanford. This tool will help decision makers and the public evaluate the cumulative effects of contamination from Hanford. This report describes the results of an initial assessment performed with the System Assessment Capability tools.

Inventory Data Package for Hanford Assessments

This document presents the basis for a compilation of inventory for radioactive contaminants of interest by year for all potentially impactive waste sites on the Hanford Site for which inventory data exist in records or could be reasonably estimated. This document also includes discussions of the historical, current, and reasonably foreseeable (1944 to 2070) future radioactive waste and waste sites; the inventories of radionuclides that may have a potential for environmental impacts; a description of the method(s) for estimating inventories where records are inadequate; a description of the screening method(s) used to select those sites and contaminants that might make a substantial contribution to impacts; a listing of the remedial actions and their completion dates for waste sites; and tables showing the best estimate inventories available for Hanford assessments.

Pretreatment Engineering Platform Phase 1 Final Test Report

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked by Bechtel National Inc. (BNI) on the River Protection Project, Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (RPP-WTP) project to conduct testing to demonstrate the performance of the WTP Pretreatment Facility (PTF) leaching and ultrafiltration processes at an engineering-scale. In addition to the demonstration, the testing was to address specific technical issues identified in Issue Response Plan for Implementation of External Flowsheet Review Team (EFRT) Recommendations - M12, Undemonstrated Leaching Processes.( ) Testing was conducted in a 1/4.5-scale mock-up of the PTF ultrafiltration system, the Pretreatment Engineering Platform (PEP). Parallel laboratory testing was conducted in various PNNL laboratories to allow direct comparison of process performance at an engineering-scale and a laboratory-scale. This report presents and discusses the results of those tests.

International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station.

The International Monitoring System (IMS) is part of the verification regime for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO). At entry-into-force, half of the 80 radionuclide stations will be able to measure concentrations of several radioactive xenon isotopes produced in nuclear explosions, and then the full network may be populated with xenon monitoring afterward. An understanding of natural and man-made radionuclide backgrounds can be used in accordance with the provisions of the treaty (such as event screening criteria in Annex 2 to the Protocol of the Treaty) for the effective implementation of the verification regime. Fission-based production of (99)Mo for medical purposes also generates nuisance radioxenon isotopes that are usually vented to the atmosphere. One of the ways to account for the effect emissions from medical isotope production has on radionuclide samples from the IMS is to use stack monitoring data, if they are available, and atmospheric transport modeling. Recently, individuals from seven nations participated in a challenge exercise that used atmospheric transport modeling to predict the time-history of (133)Xe concentration measurements at the IMS radionuclide station in Germany using stack monitoring data from a medical isotope production facility in Belgium. Participants received only stack monitoring data and used the atmospheric transport model and meteorological data of their choice. Some of the models predicted the highest measured concentrations quite well. A model comparison rank and ensemble analysis suggests that combining multiple models may provide more accurate predicted concentrations than any single model. None of the submissions based only on the stack monitoring data predicted the small measured concentrations very well. Modeling of sources by other nuclear facilities with smaller releases than medical isotope production facilities may be important in understanding how to discriminate those releases from releases from a nuclear explosion.

Estimates of Radioxenon Released from Southern Hemisphere Medical isotope Production Facilities Using Measured Air Concentrations and Atmospheric Transport Modeling

The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive-Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty monitors the atmosphere for radioactive xenon leaking from underground nuclear explosions. Emissions from medical isotope production represent a challenging background signal when determining whether measured radioxenon in the atmosphere is associated with a nuclear explosion prohibited by the treaty. The Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO) operates a reactor and medical isotope production facility in Lucas Heights, Australia. This study uses two years of release data from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility and (133)Xe data from three IMS sampling locations to estimate the annual releases of (133)Xe from medical isotope production facilities in Argentina, South Africa, and Indonesia. Atmospheric dilution factors derived from a global atmospheric transport model were used in an optimization scheme to estimate annual release values by facility. The annual releases of about 6.8 × 10(14) Bq from the ANSTO medical isotope production facility are in good agreement with the sampled concentrations at these three IMS sampling locations. Annual release estimates for the facility in South Africa vary from 2.2 × 10(16) to 2.4 × 10(16) Bq, estimates for the facility in Indonesia vary from 9.2 × 10(13) to 3.7 × 10(14) Bq and estimates for the facility in Argentina range from 4.5 × 10(12) to 9.5 × 10(12) Bq.

Minimum Hellinger distance estimation for normal models

A robust estimator introduced by Beran (1977a, 1977b), which is based on the minimum Hellinger distance between a projection model density and a nonparametric sample density, is studied empirically. An extensive simulation provides an estimate of the small sample distribution and supplies empirical evidence of the estimator performance for a normal location-scale model. While the performance of the minimum Hellinger distance estimator is seen to be competitive with the maximum likelihood estimator at the true model, its robustness to deviations from normality is shown to be competitive in this setting with that obtained from the M-estimator and the Cramer-von Mises minimum distance estimator. Beran also introduced a goodness-of-fit statisticH 2, based on the minimized Hellinger distance between a member of a parametric family of densities and a nonparametric density estimate. We investigate the statistic H (the square root of H 2) as a test for normality when both location and scale are unspecified. Empir...

Survey and Evaluate Uncertainty Quantification Methodologies

The Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) is a partnership among national laboratories, industry and academic institutions that will develop and deploy state-of-the-art computational modeling and simulation tools to accelerate the commercialization of carbon capture technologies from discovery to development, demonstration, and ultimately the widespread deployment to hundreds of power plants. The CCSI Toolset will provide end users in industry with a comprehensive, integrated suite of scientifically validated models with uncertainty quantification, optimization, risk analysis and decision making capabilities. The CCSI Toolset will incorporate commercial and open-source software currently in use by industry and will also develop new software tools as necessary to fill technology gaps identified during execution of the project. The CCSI Toolset will (1) enable promising concepts to be more quickly identified through rapid computational screening of devices and processes; (2) reduce the time to design and troubleshoot new devices and processes; (3) quantify the technical risk in taking technology from laboratory-scale to commercial-scale; and (4) stabilize deployment costs more quickly by replacing some of the physical operational tests with virtual power plant simulations. The goal of CCSI is to deliver a toolset that can simulate the scale-up of a broad set of new carbon capture technologies from laboratory scale to full commercial scale. To provide a framework around which the toolset can be developed and demonstrated, we will focus on three Industrial Challenge Problems (ICPs) related to carbon capture technologies relevant to U.S. pulverized coal (PC) power plants. Post combustion capture by solid sorbents is the technology focus of the initial ICP (referred to as ICP A). The goal of the uncertainty quantification (UQ) task (Task 6) is to provide a set of capabilities to the user community for the quantification of uncertainties associated with the carbon capture processes. As such, we will develop, as needed and beyond existing capabilities, a suite of robust and efficient computational tools for UQ to be integrated into a CCSI UQ software framework.