Pauline K. Marstrand

World food futures -- growth with redistribution?

Abstract The authors contend that the world has the capacity to support both the present population and any likely increase in population, relatively comfortably for at least the next 100 years. Although millions are malnourished today, world food production is sufficient to feed them, and problems in distribution are the cause of their misfortune. The reasons behind this paradox are examined in the context of the world futures debate, and some implications for policy are suggested. As Gross National Product rises, the poorest nations and income groups within nations need protection against ever-increasing demand for food by wealthier groups.

Antibiotic technology in agriculture

Abstract In the late 1940s and early 50s the growth-promoting properties of vitamins were increasingly used and the effect was found to be enhanced by the presence of antibiotics. By the mid 1950s antibiotics alone were in extensive use for growth promotion. This use coincided with increased adoption of intensive rearing methods and there were suggestions that the effects were at least partly due to prophylaxis. Manufacturers began to recommend routine addition of antibiotics to diet to reduce losses due to “stress”. Concern began to be expressed in the scientific and medical press that there were risks to human health, in that resistant strains of organisms might become increasingly common, that some organisms might remain in carcases after preparation for the table, that some of these organisms might be zoonoses, causing human as well as animal disease and that resistance might be transferred from harmless to pathogenic organisms. Increasing public awareness of technological risk in general resulted, in Britain, in the establishment of the Netherthorpe committee which recommended that only substances not in use for human medicine should in future be approved for use, and that they should all, in any case be used for growth promotion and not for general prophylaxis, although this was still at the discretion of veterinar, practitioners. By 1968 a serious outbreak of infantile enteritis had reawakened public concern, and another committee, under Prof. M. Swann was set up to consider the implications of the increasing use of antibiotics and to make recommendations. The paper examines the events leading up to these enquiries and the subsequent, largely hostile, reaction to the proposals. An attempt is made to determine how far the claims of economic advantage are justified. The issue is clouded by the failure of the Government to conduct a parallel enquiry into the selection of resistant strains of pathogens as a result of use of antibiotics in human medicine. The problems associated with different codes of practice in various countries demand that an accurate evaluation of the advantages and dangers should be undertaken without delay. The effects of the implementation of the Swann recommendations could provide useful information for such a study.

Shadows on the Seventies: Indicative World Plan, the Protein Gap, and the Green Revolution

Use of the term ‘forecasting’ suggests a well-defined and deliberate exercise. Food forecasting has not always followed that mode and it is difficult to separate attempts at rational planning from actual forecasts. In the 1930s the League of Nations had set up a committee (League of Nations, 1935) to study the causes of food shortages and to make recommendations. After the Second World War the UN carried on this activity, first through WHO, then after the creation of FAO in 1947, by joint action of these agencies. FAO collected information on population and food production, WHO laid down requirements for adequate nutrition, and together they attempted to calculate what would be required. This latter activity can be described as forecasting. We have described elsewhere (Marstrand and Rush, 1978) the difficulties encountered and the reasons for the estimates being too high. These criticisms in no way detract from the good intentions of the agencies in attempting to find out the extent of what was then believed to be a worldwide shortfall in the supply of food and the quantities required to meet it. Without their work the surprising fact of an overall sufficiency of food would never have emerged.

Assessing the intangibles in water pollution control

Three methods of assessing the non‐pecuniary benefits of good quality water are suggested. One depends on calculating the implicit valuation accorded them by the existing expenditure on pollution control and from the amount of “damage” caused. A second method consists in calculating all the costs imposed on users of water before and after a control programme is put into operation. Both these methods require more information about expenditure than is at present usually available. A third proposal uses biological assessment of water quality as a representative of the other “intangibles”. Since high biological quality indicates a water suitable for any other use this could be a useful approximation. When information on expenditure is also available, it is possible to calculate a cost for achieving a given quality in a particular situation, which could be used in cost‐effectiveness comparisons of different programmes or different situations.

Production of microbial protein: a study of the development and introduction of a new technology

Abstract Previous work had indicated a lack of studies assessing ecological and social effects of specific technologies. Production of microbial protein was selected for its definability and because UK products were about to be introduced (1976). The study was conducted by investigation of UK Patent Office records, by literature search and by interviews with researchers, producers, feed-for-mulators and farmers. It was found that research had been stimulated by FAO calls for production of unconventional protein for human food, but that the animal feed market proved the most attractive target, partly because of safety regulatins. Microbial protein can be grown on many organic materials, so there are considerable passibilities for utilising waste products, especially from agricultural activities and from food and drink industries. Nevetheless, the major developments have in fact used petrochemical feedstocks, methane, methanol and ‘n’ alkanes because of their availability in large volume at consistent quality. ICIs ‘Pruteen’ Methylopphilus methylotrophus, grown on methanol is the only product available in large ammounts in the UK, but recent increases in oil prices may alter the economics of this process and may also favour utilisation of waste streams, espicially if water authorities continue to tighten-up discharge reqiurements. The employment implications were not explored, sine they seem likely to be negligible, unless soya were superceded, which is even more unlikely. Utilisation of organic, which is even more unlikely. Utilisation of organic waste streams would have pronounced beneficial effects on ambient water quality.] Developing countries with long peroid of sunlight and sufficient water to produce luxuriant vegetation could utilise crop wastes as a basis for protein production, either as a main objective, or as a co-product with chemical fertilisers intermediates of liquid fuel.

Knowledge intensive agriculture: The need for science in labour intensive agriculture

Abstract The authors argue that a stronger scientific base is needed for agriculture in low-latitude areas of the world. Northern agricultural methods are not adequate in warmer climates and research is needed to find appropriate farming techniques and tools. At the same time, redistribution of land and water supplies (and a political structure to prevent their being consolidated again in the hands of a few) are necessary so that the increased production goes to those who need it.

Evaluating biological quality in pollution control

Abstract A cost-benefit analysis of pollution control measures involves an estimation of the value of amenity and the biological health of the receiving waters. This difficult problem is being investigated by the Science Research Unit at the University of Sussex using river pollution as a model.