Paweł Folfas

Belarus after Not Finished Transition

In this article we search relationship between economic (also political) system and development opportunities of Belarus. We use interdisciplinary approach and analytical tools form economics, law and politics. The economy of Belarus, despite not finished transition, has been developing and strengthening relationships with abroad. However, at least a part of this success is connected with special economic and political ties with Russia.

Czy Porozumienie Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) może stać się przełomowe w procesie integracji regionalnej na kontynencie afrykańskim

Concluded in 2015, the Tripartite Free Trade Area (TFTA) agreement between three regional trade arrangements in Africa (COMESA, SADC, EAC) is the first step towards creating the Continental Free Trade Area (CAFTA), planned for 2017. This article attempts to assess the importance of the TFTA agreement for the process of regional integration in Africa. The article uses an analytical and descriptive method on the basis of domestic and foreign literature sources and statistics of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Empirical studies were also conducted with the use of the Regional Trade Introversion Index (RTII). The analysis performed leads to the conclusion that the broad scope of both subjects and countries covered by the Tripartite agreement indicates that it may be a step towards a new development strategy for regional integration in Africa. However, the authors’ own study results suggest that the position of the agreement in world trade will remain unchanged.

Rozwój ekonomiczny i współpraca z zagranicą w obliczu różnych systemów polityczno-gospodarczych. Studium przypadku Polski, Białorusi i Serbii

CEL NAUKOWY: Celem opracowania jest weryfikacja hipotezy, zgodnie z ktorą spośrod gospodarek doganiających wzglednie lepsze wyniki osiągają gospodarki otwarte, oparte na systemie demokratycznym oraz rynku. PROBLEM I METODY BADAWCZE: Analize prowadzimy na przykladzie związkow miedzy systemami polityczno-gospodarczymi a mozliwościami rozwojowymi Polski, Bialorusi i Serbii. Stosujemy podejście interdyscyplinarne, wykorzystując narzedzia nalezące do instrumentarium nauk ekonomicznych, prawnych i politycznych. PROCES WYWODU: Analizujemy procesy tworzenia systemow politycznych i gospodarczych oraz związki miedzy tymi systemami a mozliwościami rozwojowymi panstw. Te ostatnie badamy i porownujemy na podstawie podstawowych wskaźnikow makro- i mikroekonomicznych (PKB, PKB pc , eksportu, sald bilansow handlowych oraz wielkości i charakterystyki naplywu BIZ). WYNIKI ANALIZY NAUKOWEJ: Analize utrudniają wątpliwości co do wiarygodności danych statystycznych, zwlaszcza dotyczących Bialorusi, a takze – po cześci przynajmniej – nierynkowy charakter gospodarki tego panstwa. Dodatkowym problemem jest wzglednie poźne powstanie Serbii jako samodzielnego panstwa. WNIOSKI, INNOWACJE, REKOMENDACJE: Weryfikacja hipotezy o dodatniej korelacji miedzy wprowadzeniem w zycie zasad spoleczenstwa demokratycznego, panstwa prawa i gospodarki rynkowej a sukcesem gospodarczym nie powiodla sie. Na podstawie analizy danych makroekonomicznych Polski, Bialorusi i Serbii nie potwierdziliśmy hipotezy dotyczącej związku otwartości gospodarki z sukcesem gospodarczym glownie z powodu niedoskonalości dostepnych danych.

Ugrupowania integracyjne – etap czy bariera globalizacji? Porównawcza analiza wewnętrznej orientacji handlu

The activity of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) can be measured by the various trade intensity indexes, for example the regional trade introversion index (RTII). The paper compares the intensity of intra-bloc trade with extra-bloc trade in 17 selected RTAs during the years 1995-2012. We analyse the trade of the regional blocs from all continents, which differ by the number of member states and the scope of economic integration as well as by their economic potential. The blocs include AFTA, ANZCERTA, APTA, CIS, ECO, ECOWAS, EFTA, EU, GCC, LAIA, MERCOSUR, NAFTA and SADC. The study prompts a number of conclusions. First, RTAs differ significantly in terms of their economic potential, the wealth of their citizens, trade openness and regional trade orientation. Second, RTAs with relatively poor citizens are characterised by high trade openness or a strong regional trade orientation, and probably treat trade as a basic factor of their economic growth. RTAs with relatively wealthy citizens, on the other hand, are oriented at trade with the rest of world or their regional trade orientation is no longer increasing (probably these RTAs cannot intensify intra-bloc trade).

World Trade and Regional Trade Orientation in the Context of Forthcoming Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

We analyse potential consequences of the forthcoming Trade and Investment Partnership between the European Union and the United States (TTIP) for trade orientation of both partners. We do it so with along with the short analysis of the characteristics of the third wave of regionalism and the TTIP position in this process as well as the dominant role of the EU and the U.S. in the world economy – especially – in the world trade. Next, we study trade orientation of the hypothetical region created in result of TTIP. We use regional trade introversion index (RTII) to analyze trade between the EU and the U.S. that has taken place until now to get familiar with the potential changes caused by liberalization of trade between both partners. We analyze RTII for mutual trade of the EU and the U.S. Then, we apply disaggregated data to analyze and compare selected partial RTII (e.g. for trade in final and intermediate goods as well as goods produced in the main sectors of economy like agriculture or manufacturing). The analysis of the TTIP region’s orientation of trade based on the historical data from the period 1999-2012 revealed several conclusions. Nowadays, the trade between the EU and the U.S. is constrained by the protection applied by both partners. Trade liberalization constituting one necessary part of TTIP will surely help to intensify this trade. The factor of special concern is trade of agricultural products which is most constrained and will hardly be fully liberalized even within a framework of TTIP. Simultaneously, both parties are even now trading relatively intensively with intermediaries, which are often less protected than the average of the economy for the sake of development of final goods’ production. The manufactured goods are traded relatively often as well, mainly in consequence of their poor protection after many successful liberalization steps in the framework of GATT/WTO. Consequently, we point out that in many respects the TTIP will be important not only for its participants, but for the whole world economy as well. TTIP appears to be an economic and political project with serious consequences for the world economy and politics.