Philippe Durance

Old Europe, new challenges

Purpose – The paper aims to query the value of strategies implemented, notably in France, and to demonstrate the largely ignored link between demographics and economics. Design/methodology/approach – The paper achieves its objective by comparing statistics of European Union (EU) members and competitors to reveal that traditional views on economics and social policy may no longer apply. Findings – The paper finds that the Old Europe stagnated due to political lack of will, but a renewed Europe has begun. The Euro as scapegoat for poor performance is dismissed. Productivity figures show how foreign trade and debt can be efficiently managed. Overall, trade must be encouraged worldwide. Low-wage countries will inevitably compete and cannot ethically be ignored. The subsidy debate heats up as the EU agricultural policy ends and the USA extends Farm Aid. Regardless, EU members must focus on sustainable development. The low birthrate in the Old Europe means social policy should be reformed to encourage families to have children and allow selective immigration to meet labour needs. The implication is that France – Europe in general – must review the EU mission and structure. The French president seems to be headed in this direction. In future research, demographics must be monitored to make social and economic plans for the working lives of our youth and retirement of our seniors. Originality/value – This paper will interest economists, politicians and policy-makers, especially those unaware of the role of demographics in productivity and planning.

Europe: gray hair and low growth

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the links between demographics and economics and to show how European institutions (like the European Commission) and European policies are slowly but surely taking into account these fundamental relations.Design/methodology/approach – The paper demonstrates the bases of the productivity gap between Europe, especially France, and the USA, by comparing GDP per active worker adjusted with the employment rate. In order to compare the level of wealth, the paper suggests using potential GDP per capita, taking into account the labor effort measured by the number of hours worked.Findings – There can be no sustainable development without children. In comparison with the USA, Europe has a demographic deficit that is probably greater than any technology gap. All of Europe has discovered that there can be no growth without cradles and that gray hair will probably lead to soft growth. Given that the active population of the Europe of 25 will decrease by more than 20 million people...