Michel Godet

The art of scenarios and strategic planning : tools and pitfalls

Abstract The term strategy has been misused and even abused. Worse, the word scenario is often confused with strategy to the point that clarification is needed if we are to understand one another. As a prolongation of the work done by the Rand Corporation in the 1960s, strategic planning, management and prospective approaches have been developed to help organizations master change. Over the past 25 years, we have contributed by creating or further developing various methodologies and procedures such as the Mactor and MICMAC methods for use in scenario building. These tools are doubly powerful in that they stimulate the imagination, reduce collective biases, and promote appropriation. One of the main functions of the strategic futures exercise is to eliminate two errors that we usually describe as the “hammers risk” and the “nails dream.” In other words, we forget what a hammers function is when staring at a nail (the nails dream) or we know how to use a hammer and imagine that every problem is like a nail (the hammers risk). In our case, we strive to give simple tools that may be appropriated. However, these simple tools are inspired by intellectual rigor that enables one to ask the right questions. Of course, these tools do not come with a guarantee. The natural talent, common sense, and intuition of the futurist also count!

Introduction to la prospective: Seven key ideas and one scenario method☆

Abstract This article considers the methodological aspects of la prospective. Seven key ideas are described and one scenario method is outlined. A new approach which emphasizes structural analysis and the driver—dependence variables matrix is described and an example of its application given.

Integration of scenarios and strategic management: Using relevant, consistent and likely scenarios

Abstract This article integrates the prospective approach with that of the strategic approach, based on a rapprochement between scenario methods and trees of competence. Following a review of prospective and a critique of strategic planning, an approach is presented which enables companies to move from prospective reflection to strategic action.

How to be rigorous with scenario planning

In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using the so‐called “shaping actors, shaping factors” method, claimed by the authors as specific to their unit. In this article, Michel Godet reacts to that claim and makes two fundamental criticisms of their methodology.

Reducing the blunders in forecasting

Abstract Forecasting is going through a crisis, partly attributable to its failure to anticipate so many developments (including the present recession). Specific problems that need tackling by the research community include the tendency to exclude the less quantifiable factors; the difficulties of identifying, relating and foreseeing explanatory variables; assessing degrees of uncertainty; and making the best use of consultants. Prospective analysis, in which forecasts are generated in the light of scenarios, can assist those concerned with actions and the future.

Pig in the middle: Overcoming inflexibility unemployment

Abstract The growth in unemployment is not inevitable. It is the product of an implicit consensus amongst the most powerful social actors, which instead of implementing rules adapted to the new technological and economic era, fight to preserve the old rules from which they continue to draw profit. In the short run, preserving the inflexible attitudes towards work (the single salaried job with full salary) is such that unemployment is bound to increase and social strife will intensify. A more flexible approach to work supply and demand is illustrated by the game ‘pig in the middle’, which, with an equitable distribution of gains in productivity directly related to the implementation of new technology, does not exclude full employment for all.

Ten unfashionable and controversial findings on Japan

Abstract The idea that success can be achieved simply by following the example of the Japanese superpower model has become too fashionable not to be treated with some suspicion. On the strength of this doubt the author travelled to Japan to question about 30 people on that countrys future. This article presents the authors findings.

Scenarios of air transport development to 1990 by SMIC 74—A new cross-impact method☆

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to describe the results of the application of the SMIC 74 method to a study of the air transport development in the Paris area to 1990. SMIC 74 is a new cross-impact method that provides three kinds of results: (a) Consistent information on the events that may occur and influence the evolution of air transport, (b) Cardinal ranking of the possible air transport development scenarios, (c) Sensitivity analysis. This method helps the decision-maker to choose between alternative strategies. For more detailed information the reader should refer to [1–3, 5].

Old Europe, new challenges

Purpose – The paper aims to query the value of strategies implemented, notably in France, and to demonstrate the largely ignored link between demographics and economics. Design/methodology/approach – The paper achieves its objective by comparing statistics of European Union (EU) members and competitors to reveal that traditional views on economics and social policy may no longer apply. Findings – The paper finds that the Old Europe stagnated due to political lack of will, but a renewed Europe has begun. The Euro as scapegoat for poor performance is dismissed. Productivity figures show how foreign trade and debt can be efficiently managed. Overall, trade must be encouraged worldwide. Low-wage countries will inevitably compete and cannot ethically be ignored. The subsidy debate heats up as the EU agricultural policy ends and the USA extends Farm Aid. Regardless, EU members must focus on sustainable development. The low birthrate in the Old Europe means social policy should be reformed to encourage families to have children and allow selective immigration to meet labour needs. The implication is that France – Europe in general – must review the EU mission and structure. The French president seems to be headed in this direction. In future research, demographics must be monitored to make social and economic plans for the working lives of our youth and retirement of our seniors. Originality/value – This paper will interest economists, politicians and policy-makers, especially those unaware of the role of demographics in productivity and planning.

Foresight and territorial dynamics

The development of any region or territory stems from its own dynamic nature. Economic activity and employment are stimulated by the number of local initiatives plus the cross‐fertilisation of those same initiatives. Globalisation, external constraints and technological change are therefore not really obstacles to be overcome but rather opportunities to be seized. In our experience, participatory foresight exercise using simple and appropriate methods has proved to be a powerful lever for promoting territorial dynamics.