Piotr A. Dybczyński

Where do long‐period comets come from? 26 comets from the non‐gravitational Oort spike

Since 1950, when Oort published his hypothesis, several important new facts have been established in this field. At present, there are still questions surrounding the apparent source region (or regions) of long-period comets, the definition of dynamically new comets and the characteristics of the hypothetical Oort Cloud. Our aim in this investigation is to look for the apparent source of selected long-period comets and to refine the definition of dynamically new comets. Based on pure gravitational original orbits, all comets studied in this paper are widely called dynamically new. However, we show that the incorporation of non-gravitational forces into the orbit determination process significantly changes the situation. We have determined the precise non-gravitational orbits of all investigated comets. Then, we have followed numerically their past and future motions during one orbital period. Applying the ingenious method of Sitarski of creating swarms of virtual comets compatible with observations, we have been able to derive the uncertainties of original and future orbital elements, as well as the uncertainties of previous and next perihelion distances. We conclude that the past and future evolutions of cometary orbits under Galactic tide perturbations is the only way to find which comets are really dynamically new. In our sample, fewer than 30 per cent of comets are, in fact, dynamically new. Most of these have small previous perihelion distances. However, 60 per cent of these will be lost on hyperbolic orbits in the future. This evidence suggests that the investigation into the apparent source of long-period comets is challenging. We have also shown that a significant percentage of long-period comets can visit the zone of visibility during at least two or three consecutive perihelion passages.

Photometry and models of selected main belt asteroids I. 52 Europa, 115 Thyra, and 382 Dodona

Photometric observations for 52 Europa (1995, 1997, 1999, 2000), 115 Thyra (1995, 1996, 1998, 2000), and 382 Dodona (1996, 1998, 1999, 2001) carried out at seven observatories are presented. Using all available lightcurves, the spin vectors, senses of rotation, and shape models of these three asteroids have been determined or refined.

On the accuracy of close stellar approaches determination

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the accuracy of our knowledge of close stellar passage distances in the pre-GAIA era.We used the most precise astrometric and kinematic data available at the moment and prepared a list of 40 stars nominally passing (in the past or future) closer than 2 pc from the Sun.We used a full gravitational potential of the Galaxy to calculate the motion of the Sun and a star from their current positions to the proximity epoch. For this calculations we used a numerical integration in rectangular, Galactocentric coordinates. We showed that in many cases the numerical integration of the star motion gives significantly different results than popular rectilinear approximation.We found several new stellar candidates for close visitors in past or in future. We used a covariance matrices of the astrometric data for each star to estimate the accuracy of the obtained proximity distance and epoch. To this aim we used a Monte Carlo method, replaced each star with 10 000 of its clones and studied the distribution of their individual close passages near the Sun. We showed that for contemporary close neighbours the precision is quite good but for more distant stars it strongly depends on the quality of astrometric and kinematic data. Several examples are discussed in detail, among them the case of HIP 14473. For this star we obtained the nominal proximity distance as small as 0.22 pc 3.78 Myr ago. However there exist strong need for more precise astrometry of this star since the proximity point uncertainty is unacceptably large.

Near-parabolic comets observed in 2006–2010 – II. Their past and future motion under the influence of the Galaxy field and known nearby stars

Here, we continue this research with a detailed study of their past and future motion during previous and next orbital periods under the perturbing action of our Galactic environment. At all stages of our dynamical study, we precisely propagate in time the observational uncertainties of cometary orbits. For the first time in our calculations, we fully take into account individual perturbations from all known stars or stellar systems that closely (less than 3.5 pc) approach the Sun during the cometary motion in the investigated time interval of several million years. This is done by means of a direct numerical integration of the N-body system comprising of a comet, the Sun and 90 potential stellar perturbers. We show a full review of various examples of individual stellar action on cometary motion. We conclude that perturbations from all known stars or stellar systems do not change the overall picture of the past orbit evolution of long-period comets (LPCs).The future motion of them might be seriously perturbed during the predicted close approach of Gliese 710 star but we do not observe significant energy changes. The importance of stellar perturbations is tested on the whole sample of 108 comets investigated by us so far and our previous results, obtained with only Galactic perturbations included, are fully confirmed.We present how our results can be used to discriminate between dynamically new and old near-parabolic comets and discuss the relevance of the so-called Jupiter-Saturn barrier phenomenon. Finally, we show how the Oort spike in the 1/a-distribution of near-parabolic comets is built from both dynamically new and old comets. We also point out that C/2007 W1 seems to be the first serious candidate for interstellar provenience.

Near-parabolic comets observed in 2006–2010. The individualized approach to 1/a-determination and the new distribution of original and future orbits

Dynamics of a complete sample of 22 small perihelion distance near-parabolic comets discovered in the years 2006 - 2010 is studied. First, osculating orbits are obtained after a careful positional data inspection and processing, including where appropriate, the method of data partitioning for determination of pre- and post-perihelion orbit for tracking then its dynamical evolution. The nongravitational acceleration in the motion is detected for 50 per cent of investigated comets, in a few cases for the first time. Different sets of nongravitational parameters are determined from pre- and post-perihelion data for some of them. The influence of the positional data structure on the possibility of the detection of nongravitational effects and the overall precision of orbit determination is widely discussed. Secondly, both original and future orbits were derived by means of numerical integration of swarms of virtual comets obtained using a Monte Carlo cloning method. This method allows to follow the uncertainties of orbital elements at each step of dynamical evolution. The complete statistics of original and future orbits that includes significantly different uncertainties of 1/a-values is presented, also in the light of our results obtained earlier. Basing on 108 comets examined by us so far, we conclude that only one of them, C/2007 W1 Boattini, seems to be a serious candidate for an interstellar comet. We also found that 53 per cent of 108 near-parabolic comets escaping in the future from the Solar system, and the number of comets leaving the Solar system as so called Oort spike comets is 14 per cent. A new method for cometary orbit quality assessment is also proposed that leads to a better diversification of orbit quality classes for contemporary comets.

Gliese 710 will pass the Sun even closer - Close approach parameters recalculated based on the first Gaia data release

Context. First results based on Gaia data show that the well-known star Gliese 710 will be the closest flyby star in the next several Myrs and its minimum distance from the Sun will be almost five times smaller than that suggested by pre- Gaia solution. Aims. The aim of this work is to investigate the proximity parameters and the influence of the close approach of Gliese 710 on the basis of Gaia DR1. Furthermore, we compare new results with previous works based on HIP2 and Tycho 2 catalogues to demonstrate how Gaia improves the accuracy of determination of such phenomena. Methods. Using a numerical integration in an axisymmetric Galactic model, we determine new parameters of the close encounter for Gliese 710. Adding ten thousand clones drawn with the use of a covariance matrix, we estimate the most probable position and velocity of this star at the minimum distance from the Sun. Results. Our calculations show that Gliese 710 will pass 13365 AU from the Sun in 1.35 Myr from now. At this proximity it will have the brightness of −2.7 mag and a total proper motion of 52.28 arcsec per year. After the passage of Gliese 710 we will observe a large flux of new long-period comets. Thanks to the Gaia mission, the uncertainties of the minimum distance and time of the close approach are several times smaller than suggested by previous works based on data from earlier observations.

New orbit recalculations of comet C/1890 F1 Brooks and its dynamical evolution

C/1890 F1 Brooks belongs to a group of nineteen comets used by Jan Oort to support his famous hypothesis on the existence of a spherical cloud containing hundreds of billions of comets with orbits of semimajor axes between 50 and 150thousand au. Comet Brooks stands out from this group because of a long series of astrometric observations as well as nearly two-year long observational arc. Rich observational material makes this comet an ideal target for testing the rationality of an effort to recalculate astrometric positions on the basis of original (comet–star)-measurements using modern star catalogues. This paper presents the results of such new analysis based on two different methods: (i) automatic re-reduction based on cometary positions and the (comet–star)-measurements, and (ii) partially automatic re-reduction based on the contemporary data for originally used reference stars. We show that both methods offer a significant reduction of orbital elements uncertainties. Based on the most preferred orbital solution, the dynamical evolution of comet Brooks during three consecutive perihelion passages is discussed. We conclude that C/1890 F1 is a dynamically old comet that passed the Sun at a distance below 5au during its previous perihelion passage. Furthermore, its next perihelion passage will be a little closer than during the 1890-1892 apparition. C/1890 F1 is interesting also because it suffered extremely small planetary perturbations when it travelled through the planetary zone. Therefore, in the next passage through perihelion it will be once again a comet from the Oort spike.

Investigating the dynamical history of the interstellar object ’Oumuamua

Here we try to find the origin of 1I/2017 U1 ’Oumuamua, the first interstellar object recorded inside the solar system. To this aim, we searched for close encounters between ’Oumuamua and all nearby stars with known kinematic data during their past motion. We had checked over 200 thousand stars and found just a handful of candidates. If we limit our investigation to within a 60 pc sphere surrounding the Sun, then the most probable candidate for the ’Oumuamua parent stellar habitat is the star UCAC4 535-065571. However GJ 876 is also a favourable candidate. However, the origin of ’Oumuamua from a much more distant source is still an open question. Additionally, we found that the quality of the original orbit of ’Oumuamua is accurate enough for such a study and that none of the checked stars had perturbed its motion significantly. All numerical results of this research are available in the appendix.

Dynamical evolution of C/2017 K2 PANSTARRS

(Abreviated) Comet C/2017 K2 PANSTARRS drew attention to its activity already at a time of its discovery in May 2017 when it was about 16 au from the Sun. This Oort spike comet will approach its perihelion in December 2022, and the question about its dynamical past is one of the important issues to explore. To this aim it is necessary to obtain its precise osculating orbit, its original orbit, and propagate its motion backwards in time to the previous perihelion. We study a dynamical evolution of C/2017 K2 to the previous perihelion (backward calculations for about 3-4 Myr) as well as to the future (forward calculations for about 0.033 Myr). Outside the planetary system both Galactic and stellar perturbations were taken into account. We derived that C/2017 K2 is a dynamically old Oort spike comet (1/a

Where do long-period comets come from? Moving through the Jupiter–Saturn barrier

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