Qiaohong Liao

Hand, foot, and mouth disease in China, 2008–12: an epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Hand, foot, and mouth disease is a common childhood illness caused by enteroviruses. Increasingly, the disease has a substantial burden throughout east and southeast Asia. To better inform vaccine and other interventions, we characterised the epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease in China on the basis of enhanced surveillance. METHODS We extracted epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory data from cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease reported to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention between Jan 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2012. We then compiled climatic, geographical, and demographic information. All analyses were stratified by age, disease severity, laboratory confirmation status, and enterovirus serotype. FINDINGS The surveillance registry included 7,200,092 probable cases of hand, foot, and mouth disease (annual incidence, 1·2 per 1000 person-years from 2010-12), of which 267,942 (3·7%) were laboratory confirmed and 2457 (0·03%) were fatal. Incidence and mortality were highest in children aged 12-23 months (38·2 cases per 1000 person-years and 1·5 deaths per 100,000 person-years in 2012). Median duration from onset to diagnosis was 1·5 days (IQR 0·5-2·5) and median duration from onset to death was 3·5 days (2·5-4·5). The absolute number of patients with cardiopulmonary or neurological complications was 82,486 (case-severity rate 1·1%), and 2457 of 82486 patients with severe disease died (fatality rate 3·0%); 1617 of 1737 laboratory confirmed deaths (93%) were associated with enterovirus 71. Every year in June, hand, foot, and mouth disease peaked in north China, whereas southern China had semiannual outbreaks in May and September-October. Geographical differences in seasonal patterns were weakly associated with climate and demographic factors (variance explained 8-23% and 3-19%, respectively). INTERPRETATION This is the largest population-based study up to now of the epidemiology of hand, foot, and mouth disease. Future mitigation policies should take into account the heterogeneities of disease burden identified. Additional epidemiological and serological studies are warranted to elucidate the dynamics and immunity patterns of local hand, foot, and mouth disease and to optimise interventions. FUNDING China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases, WHO, The Li Ka Shing Oxford Global Health Programme and Wellcome Trust, Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, and Health and Medical Research Fund, Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.

Probable limited person-to-person transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in China.

BACKGROUND In December, 2007, a family cluster of two individuals infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus was identified in Jiangsu Province, China. Field and laboratory investigations were implemented immediately by public-health authorities. METHODS Epidemiological, clinical, and virological data were collected and analysed. Respiratory specimens from the patients were tested by reverse transcriptase (RT) PCR and by viral culture for the presence of H5N1 virus. Contacts of cases were monitored for symptoms of illness for 10 days. Any contacts who became ill had respiratory specimens collected for H5N1 testing by RT PCR. Sera were obtained from contacts for H5N1 serological testing by microneutralisation and horse red-blood-cell haemagglutinin inhibition assays. FINDINGS The 24-year-old index case died, and the second case, his 52-year-old father, survived after receiving early antiviral treatment and post-vaccination plasma from a participant in an H5N1 vaccine trial. The index cases only plausible exposure to H5N1 virus was a poultry market visit 6 days before the onset of illness. The second case had substantial unprotected close exposure to his ill son. 91 contacts with close exposure to one or both cases without adequate protective equipment provided consent for serological investigation. Of these individuals, 78 (86%) received oseltamivir chemoprophylaxis and two had mild illness. Both ill contacts tested negative for H5N1 by RT PCR. All 91 close contacts tested negative for H5N1 antibodies. H5N1 viruses isolated from the two cases were genetically identical except for one non-synonymous nucleotide substitution. INTERPRETATION Limited, non-sustained person-to-person transmission of H5N1 virus probably occurred in this family cluster.

Comparative epidemiology of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 and H5N1 viruses in China: a population-based study of laboratory-confirmed cases

BACKGROUND The novel influenza A H7N9 virus emerged recently in mainland China, whereas the influenza A H5N1 virus has infected people in China since 2003. Both infections are thought to be mainly zoonotic. We aimed to compare the epidemiological characteristics of the complete series of laboratory-confirmed cases of both viruses in mainland China so far. METHODS An integrated database was constructed with information about demographic, epidemiological, and clinical variables of laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 (130 patients) and H5N1 (43 patients) that were reported to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention until May 24, 2013. We described disease occurrence by age, sex, and geography, and estimated key epidemiological variables. We used survival analysis techniques to estimate the following distributions: infection to onset, onset to admission, onset to laboratory confirmation, admission to death, and admission to discharge. FINDINGS The median age of the 130 individuals with confirmed infection with H7N9 was 62 years and of the 43 with H5N1 was 26 years. In urban areas, 74% of cases of both viruses were in men, whereas in rural areas the proportions of the viruses in men were 62% for H7N9 and 33% for H5N1. 75% of patients infected with H7N9 and 71% of those with H5N1 reported recent exposure to poultry. The mean incubation period of H7N9 was 3·1 days and of H5N1 was 3·3 days. On average, 21 contacts were traced for each case of H7N9 in urban areas and 18 in rural areas, compared with 90 and 63 for H5N1. The fatality risk on admission to hospital was 36% (95% CI 26-45) for H7N9 and 70% (56-83%) for H5N1. INTERPRETATION The sex ratios in urban compared with rural cases are consistent with exposure to poultry driving the risk of infection--a higher risk in men was only recorded in urban areas but not in rural areas, and the increased risk for men was of a similar magnitude for H7N9 and H5N1. However, the difference in susceptibility to serious illness with the two different viruses remains unexplained, since most cases of H7N9 were in older adults whereas most cases of H5N1 were in younger people. A limitation of our study is that we compared laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 and H5N1 infection, and some infections might not have been ascertained. FUNDING Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease and University Grants Committee, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China; and the US National Institutes of Health.

Human infection with avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an assessment of clinical severity.

Summary Background Characterisation of the severity profile of human infections with influenza viruses of animal origin is a part of pandemic risk assessment, and an important part of the assessment of disease epidemiology. Our objective was to assess the clinical severity of human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus, which emerged in China in early 2013. Methods We obtained information about laboratory-confirmed cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported as of May 28, 2013, from an integrated database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We estimated the risk of fatality, mechanical ventilation, and admission to the intensive care unit for patients who required hospital admission for medical reasons. We also used information about laboratory-confirmed cases detected through sentinel influenza-like illness surveillance to estimate the symptomatic case fatality risk. Findings Of 123 patients with laboratory-confirmed avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection who were admitted to hospital, 37 (30%) had died and 69 (56%) had recovered by May 28, 2013. After we accounted for incomplete data for 17 patients who were still in hospital, we estimated the fatality risk for all ages to be 36% (95% CI 26–45) on admission to hospital. Risks of mechanical ventilation or fatality (69%, 95% CI 60–77) and of admission to an intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or fatality (83%, 76–90) were high. With assumptions about coverage of the sentinel surveillance network and health-care-seeking behaviour for patients with influenza-like illness associated with influenza A H7N9 virus infection, and pro-rata extrapolation, we estimated that the symptomatic case fatality risk could be between 160 (63–460) and 2800 (1000–9400) per 100 000 symptomatic cases. Interpretation Human infections with avian influenza A H7N9 virus seem to be less serious than has been previously reported. Many mild cases might already have occurred. Continued vigilance and sustained intensive control efforts are needed to minimise the risk of human infection. Funding Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China–US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease; and the US National Institutes of Health.

Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND Transmission of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus seems to be predominantly between poultry and people. In the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing--where most human cases of infection have occurred--live poultry markets (LPMs) were closed in April, 2013, soon after the initial outbreak, as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the effect of LPM closure in these cities on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus. METHODS We obtained information about every laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported in the four cities by June 7, 2013, from a database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data for age, sex, location, residence type (rural or urban area), and dates of illness onset. We obtained information about LPMs from official sources. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incidence of cases reported in each city on the basis of the assumption of a constant force of infection before LPM closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. FINDINGS 85 human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing by June 7, 2013, of which 60 were included in our main analysis. Closure of LPMs reduced the mean daily number of infections by 99% (95% credibility interval 93-100%) in Shanghai, by 99% (92-100%) in Hangzhou, by 97% (68-100%) in Huzhou, and by 97% (81-100%) in Nanjing. Because LPMs were the predominant source of exposure to avian influenza A H7N9 virus for confirmed cases in these cities, we estimated that the mean incubation period was 3·3 days (1·4-5·7). INTERPRETATION LPM closures were effective in the control of human risk of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection in the spring of 2013. In the short term, LPM closure should be rapidly implemented in areas where the virus is identified in live poultry or people. In the long term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of market rest days and central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed. FUNDING Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; and the US National Institutes of Health.

Risk Factors for Severe Illness with 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection in China

BACKGROUND Data on risk factors for severe outcomes from 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection are limited outside of developed countries. METHODS We reviewed medical charts to collect data from patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 infection who were identified across China during the period from September 2009 through February 2010, and we analyzed potential risk factors associated with severe illness (defined as illness requiring intensive care unit admission or resulting in death). RESULTS Among 9966 case patients, the prevalence of chronic medical conditions (33% vs 14%), pregnancy (15% vs 7%), or obesity (19% vs 14%) was significantly higher in those patients with severe illness than it was in those with less severe disease. In multivariable analyses, among nonpregnant case patients aged ≥ 2 years, having a chronic medical condition significantly increased the risk of severe outcome among all age groups, and obesity was a risk factor among those <60 years of age. The risk of severe illness among pregnant case patients was significantly higher for those in the second and third trimesters. The risk of severe illness was increased when oseltamivir treatment was initiated ≥ 5 days after illness onset (odds ratio, 1.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.20-1.67). For persons <60 years of age, the prevalence of obesity among case patients with severe illness was significantly greater than it was among those without severe illness or among the general population. CONCLUSIONS Risk factors for severe 2009 H1N1 illness in China were similar to those observed in developed countries, but there was a lower prevalence of chronic medical conditions and a lower prevalence of obesity. Obesity was a risk factor among case patients < 60 years of age. Early initiation of oseltamivir treatment was most beneficial, and there was an increased risk of severe disease when treatment was started ≥ 5 days after illness onset.

Effectiveness of oseltamivir on disease progression and viral RNA shedding in patients with mild pandemic 2009 influenza A H1N1: opportunistic retrospective study of medical charts in China

Objective To describe the clinical features and effectiveness of oseltamivir on disease progression and viral RNA shedding in patients with mild pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus infection. Design Opportunistic retrospective review of medical charts of patients with confirmed 2009 H1N1 identified through the national surveillance system in China from May to July 2009. Setting Under coordination of the Ministry of Health, local health departments were asked to collect medical records of confirmed patients and send them to the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention on a voluntary basis as part of the public health response. Population 1291 patients with confirmed 2009 H1N1 infection and available data for chart review. Main outcome measures Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, symptoms and signs, laboratory tests, findings on chest radiography, antiviral treatment, duration of fever, and duration of viral RNA shedding. Results The median age of 1291 patients was 20 years (interquartile range 12-26); 701 (54%) were male. The most common symptoms were fever (820, 64%), cough (864, 67%), sore throat (425, 33%), sputum (239, 19%), and rhinorrhoea (228, 18%). Of 920 patients who underwent chest radiography, 110 (12%) had abnormal findings consistent with pneumonia. Some 983 (76%) patients were treated with oseltamivir from a median of the third day of symptoms (2-4). No patients required admission to the intensive care unit or mechanical ventilation. 2009 H1N1 was shed from one day before onset of symptoms to up to eight days after onset in most (91%) patients, with a median of 5 (3-6) days of shedding after onset. Treatment with oseltamivir significantly protected against subsequent development of radiographically confirmed pneumonia (odds ratio 0.12, 95% confidence interval 0.08 to 0.18), and treatment started within two days of symptom onset reduced the duration of fever and viral RNA shedding. Conclusions Chinese patients with 2009 H1N1 infection predominantly presented with features of uncomplicated, self limiting acute respiratory illness. 2009 H1N1 might be shed longer than seasonal influenza virus. Treatment with oseltamivir was associated with a significantly reduced development of radiographically confirmed pneumonia and a shorter duration of fever and viral RNA shedding. Though these patients benefited from treatment, the findings should be interpreted with caution as the study was retrospective and not all patients underwent chest radiography.

Risk Factors for Human Illness with Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus Infection in China

BACKGROUND In China, 30 human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus infection were identified through July 2008. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to identify risk factors for influenza H5N1 disease in China. METHODS A questionnaire about potential influenza H5N1 exposures was administered to 28 patients with influenza H5N1 and to 134 randomly selected control subjects matched by age, sex, and location or to proxies. Conditional logistic regression analyses were performed. RESULTS Before their illness, patients living in urban areas had visited wet poultry markets, and patients living in rural areas had exposure to sick or dead backyard poultry. In multivariable analyses, independent risk factors for influenza H5N1 were direct contact with sick or dead poultry (odds ratio [OR], 506.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 15.7-16319.6]; P<.001), indirect exposure to sick or dead poultry (OR, 56.9 [95% CI, 4.3-745.6]; P=.002), and visiting a wet poultry market (OR, 15.4 [95% CI, 3.0-80.2]; P=.001). CONCLUSIONS To prevent human influenza H5N1 in China, the level of education about avoiding direct or close exposures to sick or dead poultry should be increased, and interventions to prevent the spread of influenza H5N1 at live poultry markets should be implemented.

Detection of mild to moderate influenza A/H7N9 infection by China’s national sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness: case series

Objective To characterise the complete case series of influenza A/H7N9 infections as of 27 May 2013, detected by China’s national sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness. Design Case series. Setting Outpatient clinics and emergency departments of 554 sentinel hospitals across 31 provinces in mainland China. Cases Infected individuals were identified through cross-referencing people who had laboratory confirmed A/H7N9 infection with people detected by the sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness, where patients meeting the World Health Organization’s definition of influenza-like illness undergo weekly surveillance, and 10-15 nasopharyngeal swabs are collected each week from a subset of patients with influenza-like illness in each hospital for virological testing. We extracted relevant epidemiological data from public health investigations by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention at the local, provincial, and national level; and clinical and laboratory data from chart review. Main outcome measure Epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory profiles of the case series. Results Of 130 people with laboratory confirmed A/H7N9 infection as of 27 May 2013, five (4%) were detected through the sentinel surveillance system for influenza-like illness. Mean age was 13 years (range 2-26), and none had any underlying medical conditions. Exposure history, geographical location, and timing of symptom onset of these five patients were otherwise similar to the general cohort of laboratory confirmed cases so far. Only two of the five patients needed hospitalisation, and all five had mild or moderate disease with an uneventful course of recovery. Conclusion Our findings support the existence of a “clinical iceberg” phenomenon in influenza A/H7N9 infections, and reinforce the need for vigilance to the diverse presentation that can be associated with A/H7N9 infection. At the public health level, indirect evidence suggests a substantial proportion of mild disease in A/H7N9 infections.

Comparison of patients hospitalized with influenza A subtypes H7N9, H5N1, and 2009 pandemic H1N1.

Hospitalization with H7N9 virus infection is associated with older age and chronic heart disease, and patients have a longer duration of hospitalization than patients with H5N1 or pH1N1. This suggests that host factors are an important contributor to H7N9 severity.