R.E. Turner

Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the Science Support the Plan to Reduce, Mitigate, and Control Hypoxia?

We update and reevaluate the scientific information on the distribution, history, and causes of continental shelf hypoxia that supports the 2001 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001), incorporating data, publications, and research results produced since the 1999 integrated assessment. The metric of mid-summer hypoxic area on the LouisianaTexas shelf is an adequate and suitable measure for continued efforts to reduce nutrients loads from the Mississippi River and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico as outlined in the Action Plan. More frequent measurements of simple metrics (e.g., area and volume) from late spring through late summer would ensure that the metric is representative of the system in any given year and useful in a public discourse of conditions and causes. The long-term data on hypoxia, sources of nutrients, associated biological parameters, and paleoindicators continue to verify and strengthen the relationship between the nitratenitrogen load of the Mississippi River, the extent of hypoxia, and changes in the coastal ecosystem (eutrophication and worsening hypoxia). Multiple lines of evidence, some of them representing independent data sources, are consistent with the big picture pattern of increased eutrophication as a result of long-term nutrient increases that result in excess carbon production and accumulation and, ultimately, bottom water hypoxia. The additional findings arising since 1999 strengthen the science supporting the Action Plan that focuses on reducing nutrient loads, primarily nitrogen, through multiple actions to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Global patterns of dissolved N, P and Si in large rivers

The concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), dissolved nitrate-N, Total-N (TN), dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP), total phosphorus (TP), dissolved silicate-Si (DSi) and their ratios in the worlds largest rivers are examined using a global data base that includes 37% of the earths watershed area and half its population. These data were compared to water quality in 42 subbasins of the relatively well-monitored Mississippi River basin (MRB) and of 82 small watersheds of the United States. The average total nitrogen concentration varies over three orders of magnitude among both world river watersheds and the MRB, and is primarily dependent on variations in dissolved nitrate concentration, rather than particulate or dissolved organic matter or ammonium. There is also a direct relationship between the DIN:DIP ratio and nitrate concentration. When nitrate-N exceeds 100 μg-at l−1, the DIN:DIP ratio is generally above the Redfield ratio (16:1), which implies phosphorus limitation of phytoplankton growth. Compared to nitrate, the among river variation in the DSi concentration is relatively small so that the DSi loading (mass/area/time) is largely controlled by runoff volume. The well-documented influence of human activities on dissolved inorganic nitrogen loading thus exceeds the influences arising from the great variability in soil types, climate and geography among these watersheds. The DSi:nitrate-N ratio is controlled primarily by nitrogen loading and is shown to be inversely correlated with an index of landscape development – the “City Lights” nighttime imagery. Increased nitrogen loading is thus driving the worlds largest rivers towards a higher DIN:DIP ratio and a lower DSi:DIN ratio. About 7.3 and 21 % of the worlds population lives in watersheds with a DSi:nitrate-N ratio near a 1:1 and 2:1 ratio, respectively. The empirical evidence is that this percentage will increase with further economic development. When the DSi:nitrate-N atomic ratio is near 1:1, aquatic food webs leading from diatoms (which require silicate) to fish may be compromised and the frequency or size of harmful or noxious algal blooms may increase. Used together, the DSi:nitrate-N ratio and nitrate-N concentration are useful and robust comparative indicators of eutrophication in large rivers. Finally, we estimate the riverine loading to the ocean for nitrate-N, TN, DIP, TP and DSi to be 16.2, 21, 2.6, 3.7 to 5.6, and 194 Tg yr−1, respectively.

Predicting summer hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico: redux.

We report on the evolution and accuracy of a model used to predict the mid-summer area of hypoxia (oxygen ≤2 mg l(-1)) in the northern Gulf of Mexico, use it to test for impacts from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), and estimate the N loading that would meet a management goal. The prediction since 2000 were 100%±6% (μ±1 SE) of the actual value. The predicted in 2010 was 99% of that actual value, suggesting that the net effect of the 2010 oil spill on the hypoxic zone size was negligible. A tropical storm, however, may have reduced the potential size of the hypoxic zone. Lowering the May nitrogen load to about 70,000 mton N nitrate+nitrite would bring the models predicted hypoxic zone size down to the management goal of 5000 km(2) and restore hypoxic waters to normoxic conditions.

The Economics of Dead Zones: Causes, Impacts, Policy Challenges, and a Model of the Gulf of Mexico Hypoxic Zone

This article reviews and analyzes the issues related to worldwide hypoxic zones and the range of economic questions sorely in need of answers. We begin by describing the extent and causes of hypoxic zones worldwide, followed by a review of the evidence concerning ecological effects of hypoxic zones and their impacts on ecosystem services. We describe what is known about abatement options and cost-effective policy design, and then focus on the large seasonally recurring hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. We offer a simple econometric model to estimate the relationship between pollutants (nutrients) and the size of the hypoxic zone. This “production function” relationship suggests that both instantaneous and historical nutrient contributions affect the size of the zone. Our results support concerns that ecologists have raised about lags in the recovery of the ecosystem and confirm the importance of multiple nutrients as target pollutants. We conclude with a discussion of the types of research and cooperation across disciplines that are needed to support the development of policies to address this important ecological and economic issue. (JEL: Q51, Q52, Q57, B4)

Changes in the concentration and relative abundance of alkanes and PAHs from the Deepwater Horizon oiling of coastal marshes.

We determined changes of 28 alkanes and 43 different PAHs in 418 wetland soil samples collected on ten sampling trips to three Louisiana estuaries before and after they were oiled from the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster. There was a significant decline in 22 of the 28 alkane analytes (0.42% day(-1)), no change in 6, over 2.5 years. The concentration of five aromatic petroleum hydrocarbons (PAHs) increased (range 0.25-0.70% day(-1)), whereas the total PAH pool did not change. Of these five, naphthalene and C-1-naphthalenes are suggested to be of higher toxicity than the other three because of their relatively higher volatility or solubility. The relative proportions of alkane analytes, but not PAHs, does not yet resemble that in the pre-oiled marshes after 3 years, The trajectories of nine indicators for degradation/weathering were either inconclusive or misleading (alkanes) or confirmed the relatively meager degradation of PAHs.

Will lowering estuarine salinity increase Gulf of Mexico oyster landings

Previous studies provide conflicting opinions on whether lower than average salinities in Gulf of Mexico (GOM) estuaries are likely to increase or decrease oyster harvests (Crassostrea virginica), which represented 69% and 54% of the United States oyster landings by weight, and dockside value, respectively, in 2003. The present study examined a 54-yr record (1950–2003) of oyster harvests and river discharge in five major estuaries in GOM states (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas). Oyster landings were inversely related to freshwater inflow. Peaks in landings, 21 of 23 in West Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Texas combined, were coincidental with lows in river discharge from the major rivers in the estuaries. Lows in landings in these states (17 of 19) coincided with peaks in discharge of the major rivers feeding their estuaries. Landings in Breton Sound, Louisiana, were also inversely related to river discharge. The only exception to this pattern was for landings in the Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, part of the Breton Sound estuary, where there were higher landings following increased Mississippi River discharge. The Bonnet Carré spillway, completed in 1931, diverts flood waters from the Mississippi River to Lake Pontchartrain, and it has been opened to reduce flood heights in 1937, 1950, 1973, 1975, 1979, 1983, and 1997. Twenty-five of 28 times after the spillway was opened, oyster landings in Mississippi were lower than in the other four states. The inverse relationship between freshwater inflow and oyster landings suggests that the proposed Bonnet Carré Freshwater Project, designed to reduce estuarine salinity, cannot be justified on the basis of anticipated higher oyster yields in Mississippi or Louisiana. Manipulating estuarine salinity in the GOM should be done within the context of the whole estuary and not just part of the estuary.

Inorganic nitrogen transformations at high loading rates in an oligohaline estuary

A well-defined nitrogen retention and turnover budget was estimated for a shallow oligohaline lake (Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, USA). In 1997 a month-long diversion of the Mississippi River filled the Lake with highly concentrated river water (80 µM nitrate) and lowered the salinity to 0 psu within 2 weeks. After the spillway was closed the Lake mixed with estuarine tidal waters and came to equilibrium over 4 months with the riverine, atmospheric and offshore water nitrogen sources. A flushing rate of 1.78% d−1 was estimated by analyzing a plot of ln salinity versus time for the first 120 days after the diversion ceased. This flushing rate was similar to the loss rate for total nitrogen (1.75% d−1), implying no significant net nitrogen losses or gains were occurring inside the Lake. The percent loss of dissolved inorganic nitrogen was higher than that for TN (4.11% d−1), whereas the loss of organic nitrogen was lower (0.94% d−1), which suggests a net transfer from inorganic to organic nitrogen. These changes occurred steadily as chlorophyll a concentration ranged from 5 to 200 µg l−1. The results demonstrate the potential significance of the organic nitrogen and interconversion of nitrogen forms when calculating estuarine nitrogen retention budgets and the necessity of measuring all nitrogen forms when performing mass balance estimates. The significance of denitrification in nitrogen removal is minimal at the high loading rates observed during this study. An implication to estuarine water quality management is that the relationships between nitrogen loading and retention are not linear and are controlled by factors other than water residence time.

Phytoplankton and the Macondo oil spill: A comparison of the 2010 phytoplankton assemblage to baseline conditions on the Louisiana shelf

The Macondo oil spill was likely the largest oil spill to ever occur in United States territorial waters. We report herein our findings comparing the available baseline phytoplankton data from coastal waters west of the Mississippi River, and samples collected monthly from the same sampling stations, during and after the oil spill (May-October, 2010). Our results indicate that overall, the phytoplankton abundance was 85% lower in 2010 versus the baseline, and that the species composition of the phytoplankton community moved towards diatoms and cyanobacteria and away from ciliates and phytoflagellates. The results of this study reaffirm the view that phytoplankton responses will vary by the seasonal timing of the oil spill and the specific composition of the spilled oil. The trophic impacts of the purported lower abundance of phytoplankton in 2010 coupled with the observed assemblage shift remain unknown.

Cyst‐motile stage relationship, morphology, ultrastructure, and molecular phylogeny of the gymnodinioid dinoflagellate Barrufeta resplendens comb. nov., formerly known as Gyrodinium resplendens, isolated from the Gulf of Mexico

In the present study, we redescribed Gyrodinium resplendens through incubation of process bearing cysts extracted from sediment collected in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The morphology and ultrastructure of the motile stage and cyst stage were examined using light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy and this revealed that the species should be transferred to the genus Barrufeta. This genus differs from other gymnodinioid genera in possessing a Smurf‐cap apical structure complex (ASC) and currently encompasses only one species, Barrufeta bravensis. B. resplendens shows a Smurf‐cap ASC that consists of three rows of elongated vesicles with small knobs in the middle one. B. resplendens is very similar to B. bravensis in cell morphology, but can be separated using the ultrastructure such as the shape and location of nucleus and pyrenoids, which highlights the importance of ultrastructure at inter‐specific level in the genus Barrufeta. The unique cysts of B. resplendens are brown and process bearing, and have a tremic archeopyle with a zigzag margin on the dorsal side of the epicyst, and not polar as in cysts of Polykrikos. The cysts do not survive the palynological treatment used here and probably have a wide distribution. Maximum‐likelihood and Bayesian inference were carried out based on partial large subunit ribosomal DNA (LSU rDNA) sequences. Molecular phylogeny supports that the genus Barrufeta is monophyletic, and that the genus Gymnodinium is polyphyletic. Our results suggest that details of the ASC together with ultrastructure are potential features to subdivide the genus Gymnodinium.

Corn Belt landscapes and hypoxia of the Gulf of Mexico.

Preface: Corn Belt Agricultural Landscape Values: Learning in the Field Introduction 1. Policy insights from alternative futures and integrated assessments Section 1: Environmental and societal drivers of agricultural landscape futures 2. Corn Belt Landscapes and Hypoxia of the Gulf of Mexico 3. Changing Societal Expectations for Environmental Benefits from Agricultural Policy Section 2: Assessing the Effects of Alternative Corn Belt Landscape Futures in Iowa 4. Alternative Scenarios for Future Iowa Agricultural Landscapes 5. Economic Implications 6. Farmers Perceptions 7. Water Quality 8. Plant Diversity 9. Pollinator Responses 10. Amphibian Population Dynamics 11. Impacts on Mammal Communities: A Spatially Explicit Model 12. Impacts on Mammal Communities: Landscape Indices 13. Wildlife Habitat Section 3: Policy Implications across Scales: From Iowa Watersheds to the Mississippi River Basin 14. An Integrated Assessment of Alternative Futures for Iowa Watersheds 15. Improving Water Quality from the Corn Belt to the Gulf 16. Agricultural Policy Choices