Michael C. Murrell

Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico: Does the Science Support the Plan to Reduce, Mitigate, and Control Hypoxia?

We update and reevaluate the scientific information on the distribution, history, and causes of continental shelf hypoxia that supports the 2001 Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force 2001), incorporating data, publications, and research results produced since the 1999 integrated assessment. The metric of mid-summer hypoxic area on the LouisianaTexas shelf is an adequate and suitable measure for continued efforts to reduce nutrients loads from the Mississippi River and hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico as outlined in the Action Plan. More frequent measurements of simple metrics (e.g., area and volume) from late spring through late summer would ensure that the metric is representative of the system in any given year and useful in a public discourse of conditions and causes. The long-term data on hypoxia, sources of nutrients, associated biological parameters, and paleoindicators continue to verify and strengthen the relationship between the nitratenitrogen load of the Mississippi River, the extent of hypoxia, and changes in the coastal ecosystem (eutrophication and worsening hypoxia). Multiple lines of evidence, some of them representing independent data sources, are consistent with the big picture pattern of increased eutrophication as a result of long-term nutrient increases that result in excess carbon production and accumulation and, ultimately, bottom water hypoxia. The additional findings arising since 1999 strengthen the science supporting the Action Plan that focuses on reducing nutrient loads, primarily nitrogen, through multiple actions to reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Phytoplankton Production and Nutrient Distributions in a Subtropical Estuary: Importance of Freshwater Flow

The relationships between phytoplankton productivity, nutrient distributions, and freshwater flow were examined in a seasonal study conducted in Escambia Bay, Florida, USA, located in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Five sites oriented along the salinity gradient were sampled 24 times over the 28-mo period from 1999 to 2001. Water column profiles of temperature and salinity were measured along with surface chlorophyll and surface inorganic nutrient concentrations. Primary productivity was measured at 2 sites on 11 dates, and estimated for the remaining dates and sites using an empirical regression model relating phytoplankton net production to the product of chlorophyll, euphotic zone depth, and daily solar insolation. Freshwater flow into the system varied markedly over the study period with record low flow during 2000, a flood event in March 2001, and subsequent resumption of normal flow. Flushing times ranged from 1 d during the flood to 20 d during the drought. Freshwater input strongly affected surface salinity distributions, nutrient flux, chlorophyll, and primary productivity. The flood caused high turbidity and rapid flushing, severely reducing phytoplankton production and biomass accumulation. Following the flood, phytoplankton biomass and productivity sharply increased. Analysis of nutrient distributions suggested Escambia Bay phytoplankton alternated between phosphorus limitation during normal flow and nitrogen limitation during low flow periods. This study found that Escambia Bay is a moderately productive estuary, with an average annual integrated phytoplankton production rate of 290 g C m−2 yr−1.

Effects of Hurricane Ivan on Water Quality in Pensacola Bay, Florida

Pensacola Bay, Florida, was in the strong northeast quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow pulse that followed the storm. We computed the magnitude of tidal flushing associated with the surge using a tidal prism model. We also evaluated hurricane effects on water quality using water quality surveys conducted 20 and 50 d after the storm, which we compared with a survey 14 d before landfall. We evaluated the scale of hurricane effects relative to normal variability using a 5-yr monthly record. Ivans 3.5 m storm surge inundated 165 km2 of land, increasing the surface area of Pensacola Bay by 50% and its volume by 230%. The model suggests that 60% of the Bays volume was flushed, initially increasing the average salinity of Bay waters from 23 to 30 and lowering nutrient and chlorophylla concentrations. Additional computations suggest that wind forcing was sufficient to completely mix the water column during the storm. Freshwater discharge from the largest river increased twentyfold during the subsequent 4 d, stimulating a modest phytoplankton bloom (chlorophyll up to 18 μg l−1) and maintaining hypoxia for several months. Although the immediate physical perturbation was extreme, the water quality effects that persisted beyond the first several days were within the normal range of variability for this system. In terms of water quality and phytoplankton productivity effects, this ecosystem appears to be quite resilient in the face of a severe hurricane effect.

Linkage between microzooplankton grazing and phytoplankton growth in a Gulf of Mexico estuary

Microzooplankton dilution grazing experiments were conducted with water collected from Pensacola Bay, Florida (USA) on 12 dates at 2 sites. Statistically significant grazing rates were observed in 22 of 24 experiments. Grazing rates in Upper Bay and Lower Bay were similar averaging 0.54 and 0.51 d−1, respectively. Phytoplankton growth rates were also similar at the two sites, averaging 1.02 and 1.00 d−1 at Upper Bay and Lower Bay, respectively. Phytoplankton growth rates usually exceeded grazing rates by about a factor of two, though microzooplankton grazing represented a significant mortality for phytoplankton. The literature suggests a linkage between phytoplankton growth and microzooplankton grazing that spans a wide variety of aquatic environments. While individual growth and grazing rates were variable, growth frequently exceeded grazing by about two-fold. This implies that the role of microzooplankton is similar across a wide variety of aquatic systems.

Effects of model physics on hypoxia simulations for the northern Gulf of Mexico: A model intercomparison

A large hypoxic zone forms every summer on the Texas-Louisiana Shelf in the northern Gulf of Mexico due to nutrient and freshwater inputs from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River System. Efforts are underway to reduce the extent of hypoxic conditions through reductions in river nutrient inputs, but the response of hypoxia to such nutrient load reductions is difficult to predict because biological responses are confounded by variability in physical processes. The objective of this study is to identify the major physical model aspects that matter for hypoxia simulation and prediction. In order to do so, we compare three different circulation models (ROMS, FVCOM, and NCOM) implemented for the northern Gulf of Mexico, all coupled to the same simple oxygen model, with observations and against each other. By using a highly simplified oxygen model, we eliminate the potentially confounding effects of a full biogeochemical model and can isolate the effects of physical features. In a systematic assessment, we found that (1) model-to-model differences in bottom water temperatures result in differences in simulated hypoxia because temperature influences the uptake rate of oxygen by the sediments (an important oxygen sink in this system), (2) vertical stratification does not explain model-to-model differences in hypoxic conditions in a straightforward way, and (3) the thickness of the bottom boundary layer, which sets the thickness of the hypoxic layer in all three models, is key to determining the likelihood of a model to generate hypoxic conditions. These results imply that hypoxic area, the commonly used metric in the northern Gulf which ignores hypoxic layer thickness, is insufficient for assessing a models ability to accurately simulate hypoxia, and that hypoxic volume needs to be considered as well.

Spatiotemporal chlorophyll-a dynamics on the Louisiana continental shelf derived from a dual satellite imagery algorithm

A monthly time series of remotely sensed chlorophyll-a (Chlars) over the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) was developed and examined for its relationship to river discharge, nitrate concentration, total phosphorus concentration, photosynthetically available radiation (PAR), wind speed, and interannual variation in hypoxic area size. A new algorithm for Chlars, tuned separately for clear and turbid waters, was developed using field-observed chlorophyll-a (Chlaobs) collected during 12 cruises from 2002 to 2007. The new algorithm reproduced Chlaobs, with ∼40% and ∼60% uncertainties at satellite pixel level for clear offshore waters and turbid nearshore waters, respectively. The algorithm was then applied to SeaWiFS and MODIS images to calculate long-term (1998–2013) monthly mean Chlars estimates at 1 km resolution across the LCS. Correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were used to relate the Chlars estimates to key environmental drivers expected to influence phytoplankton variability. The Chlars time series covaried with river discharge and nutrient concentration, PAR, and wind speed, and there were spatial differences in how these environmental drivers influenced Chlars. The main axis of spatial variability occurred in a cross-shelf direction with highest Chlars observed on the inner shelf. Both inner (<10 m depth) and middle-shelf (10–50 m depth) Chlars were observed to covary with interannual variations in the size of the hypoxic (O2 < 63 mmol m−3) area, and they explained ∼70 and ∼50% variability in interannual hypoxia size, respectively.

A Historical Perspective on Eutrophication in the Pensacola Bay Estuary, FL, USA

In this chapter, we provide a brief description of the Pensacola Bay estuary, examining the available historical data for evidence of trends in eutrophication within the estuary. Common to many industrialized estuaries, Pensacola Bay has been subjected to unregulated point sources of nutrients and other contaminants, peaking during the 1950s and 1960s. Also, over the past 60 years, the region has experienced a fivefold increase in population in the watershed and a doubling of river nitrate concentrations. Today, the estuary exhibits classical symptoms of eutrophication, including extensive summer hypoxia, significant loss of sea grass habitat, and phytoplankton dynamics that respond strongly to seasonal and interannual variation in freshwater flow. Surprisingly, Pensacola Bay appears to have low nutrient concentrations, moderate productivity, and high water transparency, characteristics that appear to have persisted during a period of rapid human population growth. We find the lack of demonstrable changes in the distribution of phytoplankton biomass or distribution and severity of hypoxia during a period of increasing human population pressures enigmatic.