Rafael González-Val

Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities: Location, Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

Abstract This article analyses empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we consider a large database of urban, climatological and macroeconomic data from 1,173 US cities observed in 1990 and 2000. The econometric model is robust to the presence of spatial effects. Our analysis shows the existence of increasing returns and two distinct equilibria in per-capita income and population growth. We also find important differences in the structure of productive activity, unemployment rates and geographical location between cities in low-income and high-income regimes.

Sequential city growth in the US: Does age matter? ☆

We provide empirical evidence of the dynamics of city size distribution for the whole of the twentieth century in U.S. cities and metropolitan areas. We focus our analysis on the new cities that were created during this period. The main contribution of the paper is the parametric and nonparametric analysis of the population growth experienced by these new-born cities. Our results enable us to confirm that when cities appear they grow very rapidly and, as the decades pass, their growth slows or even falls into decline. Moreover, the nonparametric analysis shows that most of the growth differential is driven by the cities first decade of existence. This evidence is consistent with the theoretical framework regarding mean reversion (convergence) in the steady state and with the theories of sequential city growth.

Divorce and the business cycle: a cross-country analysis

In this paper, we examine the role of the business cycle in divorce. To do so, we use a panel of 29 European countries covering the period from 1991 to 2012. We find the unemployment rate negatively affects the divorce rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of the divorce rate, even after controlling for socio-economic variables and unobservable characteristics that can vary by country, and/or over time. Results indicate that a one-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate involves almost 0.025 fewer divorces per thousand inhabitants. The impact is small, representing around 1.2% of the average divorce rate in Europe during the period considered. Supplementary analysis, developed to explore a possible non-linear pattern, confirms a negative relationship between unemployment and divorce in European countries, with the inverse relationship being more pronounced in those countries with higher divorce rates.

Sequential city growth in the US: does age matter?

We provide empirical evidence of the dynamics of city size distribution for the whole of the twentieth century in U.S. cities and metropolitan areas. We focus our analysis on the new cities that were created during the period of analysis. The main contribution of this paper, therefore, is the parametric and nonparametric analysis of the population growth experienced by these new-born cities. Our results enable us to confirm that, when cities appear, they grow very rapidly and, as the decades pass, their growth slows or even falls into decline. This is consistent with the theoretical framework regarding mean reversion (convergence) in the steady state and with the theories of sequential city growth.

Deviations from Zipf’s Law for American Cities: An Empirical Examination

This paper presents a simple method for calculating deviations between actual city size and the size which would correspond to it with a Pareto exponent equal to one (Zipf’s law). The results show two differentiated behaviours: most cities (80.25 per cent) present a greater size than that which would fulfil Zipf’s law, while small cities (19.75 per cent) tend to be too small. The aim of the paper is to analyse the distribution element by element, using data about city characteristics from all American cities in 2000, and to explain the deviation between the size predicted by Zipf’s law and the actual size of each city. To do this, a multinomial logit model is used. The most important variables affecting the probability of a city presenting a negative or positive deviation are per capita income, human capital levels and the percentage of the population employed in some sectors.

The accuracy of graphs to describe size distributions

This article analyses the performance of the graphs traditionally used to study size distributions: histograms, Zipf plots (double logarithmic graphs of rank compared to size) and plotted cumulative density functions. A lognormal distribution is fitted to urban data from three countries (the United States, Spain and Italy) over all of the twentieth century. We explain the advantages and disadvantages associated with these graphic methods and derive some statistical properties.

Market potential and city growth: Spain 1860-1960

A few attempts have been made to analyse whether market potential might also have an impact on urban structures. In this paper we employ parametric and non-parametric techniques to analyse the effect of market potential on the growth of Spanish cities during the period 1860-1960. This period is especially interesting because it is characterized by the advance in the economic integration of the national market together with an intense process of industrialization. Our results show a clear positive influence of market potential on city growth.

Cross-sectional growth in US cities from 1990 to 2000

This paper analyses the growth of American cities, understood as the growth of the population or of the per capita income, from 1990 to 2000. This empirical analysis uses data from all the cities (incorporated places) with more than 25,000 inhabitants in the year 2000 (1152 cities). The results show that while common convergence behaviour is observed in both population and per capita income growth, there are differences in the evolution of the distributions: the population distribution remains almost unchanged, while the per capita income distribution makes a great movement to the right. We use two different methodologies to test cross-sectional convergence across cities: linear growth models (allowing for spatial spillovers between locations) and spatial quantile regressions. We find evidence of significant spatial effects and non-linear behaviour.

Unemployment, marriage and divorce

ABSTRACT In this article, we examine whether the business cycle plays a role in marriage and divorce. We use data on Spain, since the differences between recession and expansion periods across regions are quite pronounced in that country. We find that the unemployment rate is negatively associated with the marriage rate, pointing to a pro-cyclical evolution of marriage; however, the response of the divorce rate to the business cycle is mixed. Results show the existence of different patterns, depending on geography: divorce rates in coastal regions are pro-cyclical, while in inland regions divorces react to unemployment in a counter-cyclical way.

Patterns in US Urban Growth, 1790-2000

González-Val R. and Lanaspa L. Patterns in US urban growth, 1790–2000, Regional Studies. This paper reconsiders the path of the growth of American cities since 1790 (when the first census was published). The null hypothesis for long-term growth is random growth. Evidence supporting random growth in city sizes is obtained by using panel unit root tests. Growth patterns different from the overall unit root trend detected are also extracted, with evidence found of high intra-distribution mobility (transition matrices) and ‘local’ mean-reverting behaviours (club convergence). The high mobility and the results of the clustering analysis are interpreted as signs of a sequential city growth pattern toward a random growth steady-state.