Raffaele Splendore

The SISMA prototype system: integrating Geophysical Modeling and Earth Observation for time dependent seismic hazard assessment

An innovative approach to seismic hazard assessment is illustrated that, based on the available knowledge of the physical properties of the Earth structure and of seismic sources, on geodetic observations, as well as on the geophysical forward modeling, allows for a time-dependent definition of the seismic input. According to the proposed approach, a fully formalized system integrating Earth Observation data and new advanced methods in seismological and geophysical data analysis is currently under development in the framework of the Pilot Project SISMA, funded by the Italian Space Agency. The synergic use of geodetic Earth Observation data (EO) and Geophysical Forward Modeling deformation maps at the national scale complements the space- and time-dependent information provided by real-time monitoring of seismic flow (performed by means of the earthquake prediction algorithms CN and M8S) and permits the identification and routine updating of alerted areas. At the local spatial scale (tens of km) of the seismogenic nodes identified by pattern-recognition analysis, both GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) and SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) techniques, coupled with expressly developed models for interseismic phase, allow us to retrieve the deformation style and stress evolution within the seismogenic areas. The displacement fields obtained from EO data provide the input for the geophysical modeling, which eventually permits to indicate whether a specific fault is in a “critical state.” The scenarios of expected ground motion (shakemaps) associated with the alerted areas are then defined by means of full waveforms modeling, based on the possibility to compute synthetic seismograms by the modal summation technique (neo-deterministic hazard assessment). In this way, a set of deterministic scenarios of ground motion, which refer to the time interval when a strong event is likely to occur within the alerted area, can be defined both at national and at local scale. The considered integrated approach opens new routes in understanding the dynamics of fault zones as well as in modeling the expected ground motion. The SISMA system, in fact, provides tools for establishing warning criteria based on deterministic and rigorous forward geophysical models and hence allows for a well-controlled real-time prospective testing and validation of the proposed methodology over the Italian territory. The proposed approach complements the traditional probabilistic approach for seismic hazard estimates, since it supplies routinely updated information useful in assigning priorities for timely mitigation actions and hence it is particularly relevant to Civil Defense purposes.

Block model versus thermomechanical model : new insights on the present-day regional deformation in the surroundings of the Calabrian Arc

Abstract A finite-element thermomechanical model is used to analyse present-day crustal deformation in the surroundings of the Calabrian Arc. The major structural complexities of the Tyrrhenian area are taken into account, along with the rheological properties of the rocks resulting from a thermal analysis. A comparison between the results obtained from a model composed of three wide rheologically uniform blocks and those obtained from the thermomechanical model allows us to better constrain the geophysical assumptions and shed light on the roles of the different active mechanisms acting in the Tyrrhenian. Our comparative analysis enlightens the crucial role played by lateral rheological heterogeneities when deformation is analysed at short wavelengths of a few hundred kilometres of the Tyrrhenian, driving the observed diffuse SW–NE extension within the regional context of active Africa–Eurasia convergence. Furthermore, a χ2 analysis based on comparisons with GPS data confirms the hypothesis that a significant part of the Africa–Eurasia convergence is absorbed through the Calabrian subduction.