Ralph Sundberg

Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset

This article presents the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset (UCDP GED). The UCDP GED is an event dataset that disaggregates three types of organized violence (state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence) both spatially and temporally. Each event – defined as an instance of organized violence with at least one fatality – comes with date, geographical location, and identifiers that allow the dataset to be linked to and merged with other UCDP datasets. The first version of the dataset covers events of fatal violence on the African continent between 1989 and 2010. This article, firstly, introduces the rationale for the new dataset, and explains the basic coding procedures as well as the quality controls. Secondly, we discuss some of the data’s potential weaknesses in representing the universe of organized violence, as well as some potential biases induced by the operationalizations. Thirdly, we provide an example of how the data can be used, by illustrating the association between cities and organized violence, taking population density into account. The UCDP GED is a useful resource for conflict analyses below the state and country-year levels, and can provide us with new insights into the geographical determinants and temporal sequencing of warfare and violence.

Introducing the UCDP Non-State Conflict Dataset

This article extends the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) by presenting new global data on non-state conflict, or armed conflict between two groups, neither of which is the state. The dataset includes conflicts between rebel groups and other organized militias, and thus serves as a complement to existing datasets on armed conflict which have either ignored this kind of violence or aggregated it into civil war. The dataset also includes cases of fighting between supporters of different political parties as well as cases of communal conflict, that is, conflict between two social groups, usually identified along ethnic or religious lines. This thus extends UCDP’s conflict data collection to facilitate the study of topics like rebel fractionalization, paramilitary involvement in conflict violence, and communal or ethnic conflict. In the article, we present a background to the data collection and provide descriptive statistics for the period 1989–2008 and then illustrate how the data can be used with the case of Somalia. These data move beyond state-centric conceptions of collective violence to facilitate research into the causes and consequences of group violence which occurs without state participation.

Reconciliation through sports? The case of South Africa.

Abstract Can sports—and if so how—serve as a vehicle for reconciliation and increased social cohesion in countries wrecked by civil conflict? This article analyses the case of South Africa and its experiences in the sports sector since the fall of apartheid, in an effort to explore the processes necessary to understand the potential sports may hold for peace building. By identifying initiatives in South Africa employed at the national, community and individual level of analysis, the article outlines the possible effects of sports on reconciliation in divided states. Through linking experiences from state policies, ngo activities and donor projects with social identity and reconciliation theory, the article outlines the possible positive and negative aspects of sports. Finally, important avenues for further research to uncover how to turn sports into effective political tools for post-conflict peace building are suggested.

Global comparison of warring groups in 2002-2007: fatalities from targeting civilians vs. fighting battles.

Background Warring groups that compete to dominate a civilian population confront contending behavioral options: target civilians or battle the enemy. We aimed to describe degrees to which combatant groups concentrated lethal behavior into intentionally targeting civilians as opposed to engaging in battle with opponents in contemporary armed conflict. Methodology/Principal Findings We identified all 226 formally organized state and non-state groups (i.e. actors) that engaged in lethal armed conflict during 2002–2007: 43 state and 183 non-state. We summed civilians killed by an actors intentional targeting with civilians and combatants killed in battles in which the actor was involved for total fatalities associated with each actor, indicating overall scale of armed conflict. We used a Civilian Targeting Index (CTI), defined as the proportion of total fatalities caused by intentional targeting of civilians, to measure the concentration of lethal behavior into civilian targeting. We report actor-specific findings and four significant trends: 1.) 61% of all 226 actors (95% CI 55% to 67%) refrained from targeting civilians. 2.) Logistic regression showed actors were more likely to have targeted civilians if conflict duration was three or more years rather than one year. 3.) In the 88 actors that targeted civilians, multiple regressions showed an inverse correlation between CTI values and the total number of fatalities. Conflict duration of three or more years was associated with lower CTI values than conflict duration of one year. 4.) When conflict scale and duration were accounted for, state and non-state actors did not differ. We describe civilian targeting by actors in prolonged conflict. We discuss comparable patterns found in nature and interdisciplinary research. Conclusions/Significance Most warring groups in 2002–2007 did not target civilians. Warring groups that targeted civilians in small-scale, brief conflict concentrated more lethal behavior into targeting civilians, and less into battles, than groups in larger-scale, longer conflict.

Opposing the veil in the name of liberalism: popular attitudes to liberalism and Muslim veiling in the Netherlands

ABSTRACT Is popular antagonism towards Muslim veils in Europe rooted in an exclusionary ‘enlightenment liberalism’? By examining different conceptions of liberalism and readings of veiling in a Dutch survey from 2014, we present the first study that investigates this question empirically. We thus bring together two hitherto largely unconnected literatures. The first is the work on immigration and ethnicity, which has shown the centrality of enlightenment liberalism in anti-Muslim media and policy discourses. The second is the literature on anti-Muslim attitudes in public opinion, which explains support for veil bans as the result of perceiving veils as threatening the respondents own, supposedly liberal, values – but has failed to distinguish between different conceptions of liberalism and thus reached inconclusive results. This, we show, can be remedied by distinguishing between ‘enlightenment liberals’, who hold negative attitudes, and ‘reformation liberals’, who hold positive attitudes towards Muslim veils.

Dehumanization amidst massacres: An examination of Dinka-Nuer intergroup attitudes in South Sudan.

Previous research on dehumanization has been conducted primarily in Western contexts, and outside of periods of ongoing and highly violent conflict. The present study, in contrast, examines grassroots-level dehumanization between South Sudan’s two largest ethnic groups—Dinka and Nuer—during an episode of extreme interethnic violence. Using a mixed-methods approach we study levels of dehumanization and how these attitudes are related to and structured around ongoing and/or very recent extreme violence. Whereas the results demonstrated mechanistic dehumanization by the Dinka participants vis-à-vis the Nuer, no similar dehumanization was found among the Nuer: although there were clear signs of intergroup bias. Our focus groups demonstrated that dehumanization attitudes in South Sudan are to a great degree structured around recent event of mass violence. In fact, practically all dehumanizing attitudes were related to these recent events and not to events previous, or to historicized stereotypes. The core contribution of this article is threefold. First, we deepen understanding of dehumanization by examining a non-Western case with ongoing, highly violent, conflict. Second, we further knowledge about the psychological effects of events of mass violence. Third, we provide new insights to the situation in South Sudan by our analysis of intergroup perceptions.

Breaking the Frame : Frame Disputes of War and Peace

Frames guide the way in which organizations and individuals interpret their surrounding contexts and shape avenues for thought, action, and behavior. This paper tests the individual-level effects of experiencing ‘frame disputes’: the state of holding individual-level frames that are at odds with dominant organizational frames. We hypothesize that on the individual level a frame dispute will be associated with negative effects on outcomes important for an organization’s functioning. The hypothesis is tested using a survey of a battalion of Italian soldiers. Our results demonstrate that, on average, soldiers who experienced frame disputes in that they perceived their mission differently from the dominant organizational frame displayed significantly lower levels of perceived cohesion, performance, and legitimacy. Frame disputes are likely to be widespread phenomena among organizations and social movements, and understanding their effects has theoretical, empirical, and policy relevance beyond the military case under study.

Change and Stability in Attitudes Toward Violence During ISAF Service

A Swedish contingent to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF; N = approx. 320) was studied before and after deployment to Afghanistan to assess if the mission and experiences on it affected attitudes toward violence. Attitudes toward war violence and penal violence were assessed across t = 1 and t = 2, as were the effects of combat exposure on change and stability in attitudes. It was hypothesized that the attitudes would remain stable across the deployment due to their importance to the soldierly identity, but that experiences of combat exposure would cause an increase in the propensity toward change. Results demonstrate that attitudes did not change between the pre- and postdeployment stages. Unexpectedly, increasing levels of combat exposure did not predict higher rates of change, but rather increased stability in attitudes toward violence. The results demonstrate that in terms of the willingness to use force, peacekeeping deployments do not have detrimental effects on soldiers.

Armed Conflict and Space: Exploring Urban–Rural Patterns of Violence

Where does large-scale violence take place? Large-scale collective violence is a multifaceted phenomenon and includes armed conflicts between government and organized opposition groups, violence between communal groups, and one-sided violence against civilians perpetrated by agents of the state or other armed actors. These forms of violence are usually studied as separate occurrences. In this chapter we are interested in the spatial dimension of these conflicts, exploring whether different forms of violence are predominantly rural or urban phenomena.