Rebecca E. Holt

Conservation physiology of marine fishes: advancing the predictive capacity of models

At the end of May, 17 scientists involved in an EU COST Action on Conservation Physiology of Marine Fishes met in Oristano, Sardinia, to discuss how physiology can be better used in modelling tools to aid in management of marine ecosystems. Current modelling approaches incorporate physiology to different extents, ranging from no explicit consideration to detailed physiological mechanisms, and across scales from a single fish to global fishery resources. Biologists from different sub-disciplines are collaborating to rise to the challenge of projecting future changes in distribution and productivity, assessing risks for local populations, or predicting and mitigating the spread of invasive species.

Climate change in fish: effects of respiratory constraints on optimal life history and behaviour

The difference between maximum metabolic rate and standard metabolic rate is referred to as aerobic scope, and because it constrains performance it is suggested to constitute a key limiting process prescribing how fish may cope with or adapt to climate warming. We use an evolutionary bioenergetics model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) to predict optimal life histories and behaviours at different temperatures. The model assumes common trade-offs and predicts that optimal temperatures for growth and fitness lie below that for aerobic scope; aerobic scope is thus a poor predictor of fitness at high temperatures. Initially, warming expands aerobic scope, allowing for faster growth and increased reproduction. Beyond the optimal temperature for fitness, increased metabolic requirements intensify foraging and reduce survival; oxygen budgeting conflicts thus constrain successful completion of the life cycle. The model illustrates how physiological adaptations are part of a suite of traits that have coevolved.

Climate warming causes life-history evolution in a model for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua)

We provide a state-dependent energy allocation model to assess the impacts of climate warming on the life-history evolution and behaviour of Atlantic cod, specifically the North-East Arctic stock (NEA). Model predictions show the response is positive for this stock, individuals grow quicker and are more fecund, exhibiting increased foraging behaviour. We reveal the underlying mechanisms and drivers of change in NEA cod, which has important implications for conservation physiology.

Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine science than in general marine science indicating a growing prioritisation of research with a climate change focus. The composition of scientific disciplines producing climate change related publications, which initially was dominated by physical sciences, shifted toward a distribution with almost even representation of physical and biological sciences with social sciences constituting a minor constant proportion. These trends suggest that the predominantly model-based directions of the IPCC have favoured the more quantitatively oriented natural sciences rather than the qualitative traditions of social sciences. In addition, despite being an often declared prerequisite to successful climate science, we found surprisingly limited progress in implementing interdisciplinary research indicating that further initiatives nurturing scientific interactions are required.

Species traits and connectivity constrain stochastic community re-assembly

All communities may re-assemble after disturbance. Predictions for re-assembly outcomes are, however, rare. Here we model how fish communities in an extremely variable Australian desert river re-assemble following episodic floods and drying. We apply information entropy to quantify variability in re-assembly and the dichotomy between stochastic and deterministic community states. Species traits were the prime driver of community state: poor oxygen tolerance, low dispersal ability, and high fecundity constrain variation in re-assembly, shifting assemblages towards more stochastic states. In contrast, greater connectivity, while less influential than the measured traits, results in more deterministic states. Ecology has long recognised both the stochastic nature of some re-assembly trajectories and the role of evolutionary and bio-geographic processes. Our models explicitly test the addition of species traits and landscape linkages to improve predictions of community re-assembly, and will be useful in a range of different ecosystems.