Reid Bailey

Applying Ecological Input‐Output Flow Analysis to Material Flows in Industrial Systems: Part I: Tracing Flows

Input-output mathematics, which allows a modeler to fully consider direct and indirect relationships among conserved flows in a system, has a long history in economics with prominent use dating to Leontief in the 1930s. Nearly all previous industrial applications of input-output analysis have been grounded in the monetary flows of an economy. Here however, because of the central nature of physical flows in the environmental impact of industry, we consider physical flows to be a fundamental component of an industrial economy. Hence, we propose an input-output based approach for modeling physical flows in industry independent of their monetary implications. In this first part of a two-part article, a framework for using input-output mathematics to model material and energy flows is constructed from a foundation laid by previous research in nutrient and energy cycling in natural ecosystems. The mathematics of input-output flow analysis is presented from an ecological perspective, culminating in two core capabilities: tracing of flows with environs (investigated in this article) and characterizing system behavior with flow metrics (presented in the second article). We assert that environ analysis is an effective means for tracing flows through industrial systems while fully considering direct and indirect flow paths. We explore material flows of aluminum and five other metals in depth using environ analysis in this article.

Applying Ecological Input‐Output Flow Analysis to Material Flows in Industrial Systems: Part II: Flow Metrics

This article, continuing with the themes of the companion article, expounds the capabilities of input-output techniques as applied to material flows in industrial systems. Material flows are the primary focus because of their role in directly linking natural and industrial systems and thereby being fundamental components of environmental issues in industrial economies. The specific topic in this article concerns several material flow metrics used to characterize system behavior that are derived from the ecological development of input-output techniques; most notable of these metrics are several measures of material cycling and a measure of the number of processes visited by material while in a system. These metrics are shown to be useful in analyzing the state of material flow systems. Further-more, the metrics are shown to be a central link in connecting input-output flow analysis to synthesis (i.e., the process of using measurements of system behavior to design changes to that system). By connecting the flow metrics to both environmental objectives and controllable aspects of flow models, changes to existing flow systems are synthesized to generate improved system behavior. To bring this pair of articles to a close, several limitations of input-output flow analysis are summarized with the goal of stimulating further interest and research.

Measuring material cycling in industrial systems

As the negative environmental implications of a modern industrial economy have begun to be recognized, a growing comprehension of the key role of material flows in industrial systems has developed. To this end, several indices characterizing material cycling have been developed. Current indices of material cycling for industrial systems, however, do not effectively measure cycling due to the lack of consideration of both direct and indirect flows in a system. A physical flow modeling approach from ecology, input-output flow analysis, is used in this study to develop cycling indices to address the limited scope of existing measures. The input-output cycling metrics, by definition, measure the percent of flows in a system or in a particular process that are cycled. The input-output cycling indices are compared to traditional industrial cycling metrics in this paper with a set of hypothetical cases. From these comparisons, the traditional cycling metrics are shown to not effectively measure cycling in complex material flow systems.

Sustainability at Kluge Estate vineyard and winery

Kluge Estate, a vineyard and winery in Charlottesville, Virginia, with one of the largest productions in the Commonwealth, is working to become a more sustainable business. Through implementing sustainable practices, Kluge Estate is seeking to benefit its business, the environment, and its community. However, due to a lack of relevant information about its environmental impact, Kluge Estates decision-makers are unable to justify sustainable choices with quantified data. To resolve this problem, this paper focuses on assessing Kluge Estates environmental impact.

Smart lighting: Developing a smarter control mechanism for park trail lighting

The focus of this project is a smart lighting system for commuter bike paths that only illuminates specific lights when users are present on that section of the path. Alternative methods of commuting to work, such as biking, are becoming more popular in the Charlottesville area. To meet this growth, the Charlottesville Parks and Recreation department is developing several commuter paths. There are currently no lighting systems in place for the newly developed paths. While keeping the paths lit for specific hours seems reasonable, doing so not only uses excess energy, but prior research has also shown that lighting park areas when people are not present encourages criminal activity. A smart lighting system is better equipped to deal with irregular use and provide safety to its users. The objectives driving this project are enhancing the safety of commuter paths in parks while maintaining cost and energy effectiveness. The new lighting system will accomplish these objectives by lighting sections of the path after dark, only when that section is in use. The system uses PIR sensors on each light pole to detect path users and transmit information to an Arduino microcontroller mounted on that pole, which turns on specific lights using a relay. When the PIR sensor detects a user, the light at that pole and the lights in front and behind turn on. For the basic wired design of the system, all information is conducted using 22 AWG wires, while the preferred wireless design uses Xbee modules to transmit information between Arduinos. The final deliverable is a functional wireless prototype installed as a demonstration project in a Charlottesville Park.

Designing a reporting tool for space mission simulations for use in elementary schools

This paper presents the design recommendation of a dashboard to accompany a weeklong computer mission simulation for use in fifth grade classrooms. The mission is a hands-on learning experience developed by the Challenger Center, a non-profit organization committed to exciting students about science, technology, engineering, and math through innovative learning tools. The Challenger Center has a valuable opportunity to gather data on student performance and experience throughout the mission. The dashboard is a user interface that will share this data with educators, allowing them to guide classroom instruction both during and after a class simulation. To design the dashboard, the team used an iterative process that continuously engaged key partners including the Challenger Center, educators, and the software developers. This iterative and inclusive approach was particularly important because the new mission was developed concurrently with the dashboard, giving the team a unique opportunity to influence the development of the mission as well. The key findings include specifications on what features and information need to be included in the dashboard design as well as prototypes and guidance on how it should be displayed. The specifications identify the need for two types of educator feedback: live feedback during the mission to ensure the classs successful execution of the mission, and more detailed summary feedback following the mission that focuses on performance against learning standards and planning for future classroom instruction.

Decreasing delay times in a wine export process

The international wine industry has grown rapidly in recent years, particularly in the area surrounding Mendoza, Argentina. Alta Vista, a winery near the city of Mendoza, produces two million bottles of wine annually, approximately half of which are exported to be sold internationally. The export process is complex; initiating a sale, evaluating inventory, designing and producing appropriate labels, applying the labels, packing the wine into a container, and shipping the wine through multiple ports to every corner of the world. Due to the large number of stakeholders involved and the importance of a timely delivery, wineries, such as Alta Vista, must work diligently to avoid delays within this process. The focus of this work is to identify the stages of the export process which cause the greatest delays for Alta Vista and to recommend procedures to minimize similar delays in the future. Peaks in demand and bottlenecks in the export order process were identified using graphical techniques, time series analysis, domain knowledge, and supplied data. One of the most significant causes of delay was during the label customization stage. Labels are customized for each order based on the language, type of bottle used, distributor, and changing government regulations; hence, a unique label must be designed, approved, and printed for each order being processed. Recommendations include operational and administrative improvements were made to Alta Vista to maximize the efficiency of their export process.

Integration of mental health and the criminal justice system: A data collection strategy and evaluation

As is the case in many communities, individuals exhibiting behaviors associated with mental illness represent about twenty percent of the inmates at the Albemarle Charlottesville Regional Jail in Charlottesville, Virginia. While in jail, mental conditions may worsen due to mistreatment from fellow inmates and lack of resources needed to provide appropriate mental health treatment. Worsened conditions contribute to future unlawful behavior and re-arrest, repeating the cycle. The Crisis Intervention Team (CIT) was developed to alleviate this problem by helping prevent people with mental illness from entering the jails in the first place. Through specialized training and other education programs offered to law enforcement officers, CIT aims to improve mental health treatment as well as interactions with the law for those experiencing effects of a mental illness. The CIT program needs to provide evidence that its programs in Charlottesville benefit the community as planned. This project is focused on designing and implementing a data collection and evaluation strategy for the Charlottesville CIT. Using the systems methodology, the authors developed a data collection system that collects information specified as necessary in evaluating the effectiveness of CIT and its programs. The system requires individuals from 6 agencies to submit monthly datasheets to the CIT coordinator. A macro-driven Excel tool is then used by the CIT coordinator to integrate these datasheets and calculate CIT performance metrics.

Proposed process for rapidly customizable widgets for online news articles

To enhance user experience, online content providers currently develop a finite set of pre-designed widgets to deploy on relevant news articles. The end goal is to match widgets with content that increases engagement, click-through to advertisements, and, ultimately, monetization. An alternative approach to achieve this goal is creating customized content for specific articles. Instead of finding which pre-designed widget to place on a given article, this different approach relies on creating new content depending on the topic of the article on the website. This alternative approach brings with it unique challenges; namely, how to design content for news articles on topics that are ephemeral and unpredictable in nature (e.g., news stories about a specific incident). There is only a short window of time for content creation - requiring a process that normally takes weeks to be completed in one morning. We have created designs for widgets that are topic-agnostic, interactive and, based on user testing, engaging to the user. In this paper, we present these designs and a process for developing highly-customizable widgets under time constraints to address topical content. The three criteria for evaluation were 1) relevance to a range of content, 2) engagement, and 3) development time. The chosen widget, called ‘Value Elicitation’, is applicable to a wide range of content, promotes engagement through interactivity, and has a short development time because the data that drives it is minimal and accessible. Potential Value Elicitation widgets matched ∼80% of non-finance news over a six-month period, confirming relevance to a wide variety of topics. User testing revealed interest in the proposed widgets. Finally, testing of the widget creation process with undergraduate engineering students indicated that these widgets could be developed in under an hour. Given that these criteria were fulfilled, the widget proposed can effectively monetize on unpredictable and highly trafficked content that current pre-designed widgets cannot.

Batted ball spray charts: a system to determine infield shifting

To gain a competitive advantage, the Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Club uses data to inform a range of decisions. This project focuses on forecasting batted ball trajectories across the infield using historical data, by outputting a likelihood probability for nine different infield zones. The paper details the development of a model that can predict where a baseball is likely to land based on a number of variables, most importantly the particular batter and pitcher. Using historical batted ball data, the back-end algorithm was developed using mixed effect models. Due to the proprietary nature of the algorithms, most of the paper will focus on the front-end design and human factors testing of the system. The fully functional user interface provides batted ball spray charts of the infield for batter pitcher combinations. Rays personnel will quickly be able to view the predicted probability for each section of the infield. Based on a set of requirements developed by interviewing Rays personnel, the system was tested with multiple groups of users to determine information extraction rates and ease of use. The test results for different versions of the decision tool helped drive the final application. The Rays intend to use this system for the 2015 MLB regular season to effectively position their infielders to convert more batted balls into outs and ultimately, win more baseball games.