Ritu Mathur

A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.

A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions

The scientific community is developing new global, regional, and sectoral scenarios to facilitate interdisciplinary research and assessment to explore the range of possible future climates and related physical changes that could pose risks to human and natural systems; how these changes could interact with social, economic, and environmental development pathways; the degree to which mitigation and adaptation policies can avoid and reduce risks; the costs and benefits of various policy mixes; and the relationship of future climate change adaptation and mitigation policy responses with sustainable development. This paper provides the background to and process of developing the conceptual framework for these scenarios, as described in the three subsequent papers in this Special Issue (Van Vuuren et al., 2013; O’Neill et al., 2013; Kriegler et al., Submitted for publication in this special issue). The paper also discusses research needs to further develop, apply, and revise this framework in an iterative and open-ended process. A key goal of the framework design and its future development is to facilitate the collaboration of climate change researchers from a broad range of perspectives and disciplines to develop policy- and decision-relevant scenarios and explore the challenges and opportunities human and natural systems could face with additional climate change.

Bioaccumulation kinetics and organ distribution of lead in a fresh water teleost, colisa fasciatus

Abstract The study of bioconcentration, kinetics of accumulation and tissue distribution of lead, in a teleost fish, Colisa fasciatus was undertaken in a laboratory ecosystem. The system was exposed to test water with sublethal concentrations of lead. Variability of lead in tissue (gills, liver, muscles) was evaluated and is presented here. Measurements of lead contained in individual organs expound high concentrations of lead in gills and muscles, explicating gills and muscles as major sites for concentration. The uptake rate kinetics show an initial rapid phase and later slow phase responsible for net accumulation.

Bioaccumulation and localization of exogenous cadmium in a teleost by electron microscopy (TEM) and its specific quantitation by electron probe X-ray microanalysis (EPMA)

A cadmium bioconcentration study was carried out in a fresh water teleost, Colisa fasciatus, to study the bioaccumulation kinetics and fate of exogenous cadmium (Cd) in biological tissues. Study shows that on exposure of the fish to a sublethal concentration of cadmium in test water, Cd uptake results in its bioconcentration in gills, liver and muscle tissues. To explore whether the accumulated Cd reaches the membranes or inside the cells, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) of the thin sections of tissues was done after histochemical localization of Cd in cells by modified SST method. TEM studies of sections of gills, liver and muscle tissues showed the deposits of exogenous Cd (visualized as dense clouds) in biological cells. This suggests the presence of free or loosely bound Cd on the membranes and inside the cells, which in the presence of Na2S is converted into insoluble metal sulfides. Electron probe X-ray microanalysis (EPMA) studies confirmed the presence of Cd on the membrane surface as well as inside the cells of bioindicator organs suggesting involvement of membrane transport of exogenous Cd inside the cells and its deposition as loosely bound insoluble metal complexes.

Water Quality and Metal Enrichment in Bed Sediments of the Rivers Kali and Hindon, India

Water-quality parameters and concentrations of various metals in bed sediments of the River Kali and the River Hindon in India were analysed to understand their behaviour in subtropical fluvial systems. Variations in the physico-chemical parameters of the river water and metal content in the bed sediments were recorded in four seasons of the year (post-monsoon, winter, summer and monsoon). Results show that water and sediments contain high cadmium (Cd) and Zinc (Zn). Total and soluble Cd and Zn profiles show that in summer, metals in the water phase exist predominantly in the bound form. Cd and Zn in bed sediments increase from the post-monsoon to the summer season. During and after the monsoon season, metal concentrations in sediments fall rapidly. Correlation coefficients of metals in sediments represent their common source and identical behaviour during transport.

Bioconcentration Kinetics and Organ Distribution of Cadmium in a Fresh Water Teleost, Colisa Fasciatus

The study of the bioconcentration kinetics of the accumulation and distribution of cadmium in tissue of a teleost fish, Colisa fasciatus was undertaken in a laboratory ecosystem. The system was exposed to test water with sublethal concentrations of cadmium and the variability of cadmium (Cd+2) in tissue (gills, liver and muscles) was evaluated. Measurements of Cd+2 contained in individual organs expound high concentrations in gills and liver, indicating that the latter are major sites for bioconcentration. The uptake kinetics of Cd+2 in fish tissues evaluated as a function of time showed an initial rapid phase and a later slow phase of accumulation.

INDC and Low-Carbon Technology Deployment Scenarios: India

The aim of this paper is to describe the key elements of India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), and the key areas in which efforts would need to be necessarily made to move along a path that helps achieve the INDC goals. The paper focuses on the national circumstances of the country and the key policy areas against which these have been laid out. The paper also discusses the challenges and barriers as well as the opportunities that India has in moving towards its INDC targets and discusses the feasibility of achieving the INDC targets. Finally, the paper discusses the need for greater cooperation to accelerate technology diffusion, mobilize finance and enhance capacity building at a regional or international level.

A Multi-level Experience of Designing Low-Carbon Energy Systems in India

Several low carbon options have the potential to offer multiple co-benefits including reduction in local air pollution, ability to enhance clean energy access, address energy security considerations and improve socio-economic conditions of households. The recent INDCs have reinforced India’s aspirations of rapidly adopting and up-scaling low carbon options in a bid to move along an increasingly efficient and environmentally sustainable development path. This chapter delves on the co-benefits that low-carbon alternatives can provide, while amplifying the concerns and challenges related with adequacy and appropriateness of technological solutions, affordability at consumer and economy-wide levels, and human, infrastructural as well as institutional capacities to manage such transitions. The chapter emphasizes that regional cooperation between countries in Asia can help alleviate resource and capacity constraints in individual countries and can thereby be viewed as a key enabler to achieving a low carbon path for countries like India. Regional co-operation possibilities could range from drawing and building up on successful initiatives implemented across sectors with regard to innovative financing models, inclusion of technological or process related modifications to suit similar socio-economic contexts or to the use of various collaborative mechanisms to support technology development, deployment and transfer across countries. Regional efforts for scaling up finance for infrastructure development linked to both mitigation as well as adaptation needs of the region and enhanced collaboration among countries is expected to play an important role in improving relations and working towards a common goal.

Mitigation Prospects and Challenges for India in Responding to Climate Change

Although India’s per-capita energy consumption is still a fraction of that in countries of the developed world, its commercial energy use has increased considerably in absolute terms, growing at about 6% during the past two decades and making India the fifth largest country in terms of primary energy consumption. India is currently one of the fastest growing economies of the world, and implications of its levels and patterns of energy use and associated emissions have generated interest globally in the context of discussions related to efficient use of energy and lowering future carbon footprints. Although development is a key concern and a challenge for all developing countries, the magnitude of the challenge differs enormously depending on the existing level of socioeconomic development of the country and the global context it faces at various stages of its development.