Robert Cassen

Does aid work?: report to an Intergovernmental Task Force

The question of the effectiveness or counter-productivity of foreign aid is one of the great issues facing the world today. This volume arose from a study conducted for an inter-governmental task force. The team surveyed the published literature, reviewed existing evaluations of aid projects, and undertook seven detailed country studies. The basic finding is that the majority of aid succeeds in terms of its own objectives and obtains a reasonable rate of return. At the same time, this book analyses the frequent failings of aid projects, compares these failings with other forms of private and public investment, and proposes measures for improving aid effectiveness. New to this edition: For the second edition the book has been shortened, removing mainly the more technical parts. The data in the text and tables have been brought up to date, the text has been revised, and each chapter has a new section added reviewing the areas of debate and research findings since 1986. The bibliography has also been updated.

Ethnicity and low achievement in English schools

Tens of thousands of young people leave school with no or very few qualifications in England. This paper asks: what is the ethnic dimension of the low achievement problem? We focus on six aspects, using the National Pupil Database: whether the relation between ethnicity and incidence of low achievement is symmetrical with the relation between ethnicity and achievement; whether economic disadvantage is an equally large risk factor for low achievement among pupils of all ethnicities; whether the relationship of ethnicity with low achievement varies by peer group; whether the relationship between gender and chances of low achievement differs by ethnic group; whether the relation between ethnicity and low achievement changes with age; and lastly, whether there is sorting by ethnicity into schools of better or worse quality. We find that: (1) the relationship between low achievement and achievement is not symmetrical and, therefore, that it is valuable to measure low achievement directly rather than as the negative of achievement; (2) economic disadvantage has a stronger effect on White students than those of ethnic minorities; (3) the relationship between ethnicity and low achievement does vary with age; (4) ethnic peer-group effects are not significant; (5) the gender gap in the probability of low achievement is significantly larger for most ethnic groups compared with the White group, at least by one measure of low achievement; and (6) attending poorer-quality schools is part of the explanation of differential ethnic minority performance. We offer explanations for our findings and for the presence and/or persistence of inter-ethnic differences in the chances of low achievement.

Divergence in India: Income differentials at the state level, 1970–97

Abstract We examine Indias regional disparities in economic performance between 1970–97. Our preliminary analysis shows that, in absolute terms, initially poorer states grew at slower rates than initially wealthier ones and that there is also evidence of increasing dispersion of income levels across the states. Our econometric analysis investigates the possibility of club convergence and conditional convergence. Although we do not find evidence of the former, we can suggest some of the factors associated in the latter. Our research also indicates that the onset of economic policy reform in 1991 significantly intensified growth differentials between the states.

Educational Outcomes: Adversity and Resilience

In the context of risk and resilience, the paper attempts to integrate three strands of research: genetic and mental-health factors, the findings of cohort studies and those of other investigations of educational outcomes. A very wide range of factors, many of them related to disadvantage, bear on such outcomes, but none deterministically. Intelligence, conduct and emotional disorders are all found to influence academic achievement to varying degrees, as do a number of aspects of family, school and the wider social environment. Aspects that contribute to resilience are identified, and the paper concludes with a discussion of interventions to enhance resilience.

Welfare and population: notes on rural India since 1960.

The many difficulties involved in finding out how living levels have changed among Indias poor are detailed. 3 questions are tackled: 1) has the distribution of income improved or worsened in recent years 2) has the proportion of the population below some given poverty line increased or decreased and 3) have the actual incomes of the poorest levels of the population risen or fallen in absolute terms. The deficie ncies of various estimates based on various data sources are estimated and the problems involved in calculating figures examined in detail. In general it is concluded that monetary incomes have risen during the decade 1960-1970 but due to inflation and the ever-increasing population of the lowest levels real income has fallen. Net availability of food grains (in grams per person) rose from 430.9 in 1956 to 455.0 in 1970 then dropped to 448.4 in 1974. These figures include imports and exports and may not equal net consumption. Unemployment figures are even harder to calculate but Sens examination of the rural workers data in the 25th round of the National Sample Survey (NSS) plus employment exchange figures found a minimum of 19.9-21.3 million actively seeking work. It is hard to believe that those without gainful employment are much less than 10 percent of the population but this is only a guess. Educational figures underscore the perpetual economic disadvantage of the poor rural dweller. Although 90 percent of boys and 60 percent of girls enroll in primary education about 60 percent of the total may leave school without attaining functional literacy. Mortality declined for a number of years but now has plateaued. Further advanced depend upon improved nutrition then improved public health measures. The solution is seen only in rural development. Family planning alone will not reduce the number being born. The poor still do not see children as economic liabilities but rather as additional income. If the incomes of poor are raised hopes will be raised. Then the process of modernization which leads to desire for smaller families can take hold. Otherwise it is unrealistic to expect rapid fertility decline in India.

Population, development and environment: India and beyond

Robert Cassen, professor at the Department of Social Policy, London School of Economics, seeks in this paper to explain the role of population growth in economic development and environmental change. Professor Cassen argues that the role of population is best understood as a long-term underlying factor which influences the scale and composition of demand for goods, services and resources, as well as the supply of labor. How demands are met, and how useful more labor is, are functions of innumerable influences, including the economy, technology, markets (or lack of markets), social structure and social conditions, property rights, politics, law and institutions. One can point to aspects of development that are strongly population driven, and disentangle others which are not, but where population has a significant influence. Professor Cassen concentrates on such an approach, illustrating the general case from the Indian experience.