Tim Dyson

On kinship structure female autonomy and demographic behavior in India.

The main states of India are broadly grouped into 2 demographic regimes. In contrast to states in the north southern states are characterized by lower marital fertility later age at marriage lower infant and child mortality and comparatively low ratios of female to male infant and child mortality. The division between the 2 regimes broadly coincides with the division areas of northern kinship/low female autonomy and southern kinship/high female autonomy. The analysis suggests that family social status is probably the most important element in comprehending Indias demographic situation. Women in the south tend to be more active in the labor force are more likely to take innovative action in adopting fertility control and are more apt to utilize health services for themselves and their children. Changes in India are also compared to those other South Asian countries. (authors modified) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)

Population and food: global trends and future prospects.

1. Pessimists and Optimists 2. Population and Food Today 3. Population and Food - Recent Trends 4. Exploring the Future: Demand and Supply 5. Exploring the Future: Potentials and Constraints 6. Exploring the Future: Regional Vignettes 7. Conclusions, Forecasts, Caveats, Tempered Hope

On the demography of South Asian famines. Part II.

This paper, which is published in two parts, is focused on demographic responses to famine in South Asia. In Part I the famines of 1876-78, 1896-97 and 1899-1900 are examined. The data that relate to disasters evince clear regularities. In each of these famines the timing of food-price rises and reductions in conceptions was similar. During the initial stages of famine the death rate was not particularly high. The main period of mortality occurred one full year after the price and conception movements. It coincided with the resumption of the monsoon, and malaria probably played a major role. There was a clear pattern to proportional increases in mortality by age - in these terms older children and adults were hardest hit. In each famine, deaths of males increased most - perhaps partly reflecting the fact that by the time of the main peak in deaths a smaller-than-usual fraction of the female population were either pregnant or lactating. Explanations for some of these regularities are considered. In Part II...

Population growth and food production: recent global and regional trends.

Per capita cereal production has declined in North America Oceania and Latin America in the past 10 years. In sub-Saharan Africa drought and rapid population growth accounted for the slight decline in cereal production per capita. Increases have been experienced recently in North Africa and West Asia. Even Latin America showed increases if Argentina is excluded. Access to food supply may account for the UN Food and Agriculture Organizations estimate of about 15% malnourished globally. Global trends show that between 1951 and 1992 rice wheat and coarse grain (cereals) production increased but varied annually. The increase was from 290 kg in the early 1950s to 371 kg in 1984 a peak year with declines to 355 kg in 1990. Regional trends showed peaks in Africa in 1967 and a decline of 25% by 1990. In Eastern Europe and the former USSR declines were 8%. In Latin America and North America the peaks were in 1981-82 and declines of maybe 4% occurred by 1990. Europe peaked in 1984 and declined by 9% by 1990. The traditional cereal exporting countries are North America and Oceania (US Canada and Australia). These countries account for 20% of the cereal production and 6% of the population. During the 1980s in the US cropland for cereal production declined by 12%. Latin American declines were attributed to population growth land degradation and the effects of the debt crisis. Argentina accounted for 25% of regional production and experienced a 40% decline in cereal exports. North Africa and West Asia imported about 33% of cereals which were primarily fed to livestock. In sub-Saharan Africa which has had droughts and civil unrest it is uncertain whether the high food aid has contributed to the failure of domestic production. Overvalued exchange rates poor transportation marketing storage and support services account for some of the regions food supply problems. Low export prices have had an effect worldwide. Cereal production in South Southeast and East Asia has been strong and the deficits in China around 1959 to 1964 and in India during 1965 and 1966 are not likely to reappear. The USSR benefited from low world prices and doubled the volume of imports by 8% between 1981 and 1992. Cereals account for about 50% of total human caloric intake. About 3% of declines in world harvests of cereals between 1981 and 1992 were due to a change in crop. The general conclusion was that food production was in line with population growth.

Prospects for feeding the world.

# Prospects for feeding the world {#article-title-2} In 1950 the worlds population numbered 2.5 billion. In 1999 it is around 6 billion. It will be roughly 8 billion by 2025. And it could reach between 9 and 10 billion by the middle of the coming century. Arguably this is the most important development of our time, with immense implications for the global environment and the prospects for feeding the world. #### Summary points Population growth is the most important factor fuelling the global demand for more food to be produced The population of sub-Saharan Africa probably faces the grimmest prospects for receiving adequate nutrition The world trade in cereals must increase substantially to meet projected increases in demand The pace of increase in cereal yields is continuing with no signs of a slowdown The outlook for feeding the world would be improved if the growth in population decreased This paper addresses the prospects for feeding the world to the year 2025. It builds on the results of a two year research fellowship funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council.1 The data used throughout were those provided by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation and the UN Population Fund. As well as analysing statistical data, the research involved talking to technical specialists and farmers throughout the world In the early 1990s the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation estimated that there were roughly 800 million undernourished people in the world.2 Most of these people live in the developing world, mainly in the Indian subcontinent and sub-Saharan Africa. However, the organisations estimate may be too high. The number was obtained through a tortuous statistical exercise which was loaded with assumptions. Also, an organisation concerned with food production may have a tendency to err on the side of overestimation. Certainly, in the past the organisation changed its criteria for … Correspondence to: M King, 1 bis Rue du Tir, Geneva 1204, Switzerland

Excess mortality during the Bengal famine: A re-evaluation

The magnitude of mortality during the Bengal famine has been hotly debated. It is generally agreed that official estimates-including that of 1.5 million ’excess’ deaths produced by the Famine Inquiry Commission (FIC}are too low, partly because they make inadequate allowance for underregistration of deaths.’ Indeed, W.R. Aykr{)yd; who was responsible for this estimate, later conceded that ’it was an underestimate, especially in that it took too little account of roadside deaths, but not as gross an underestimate as some critics of the Commission’s report, who preferred 3 to 4 million, declared it to be’.2 On the other hand, some of the unofficial estimates-notably K.P. Chattopadhyaya’s that excess deaths in 1943 alone numbered 2.2 million-are often considered too hig

Urbanization in India: Results of the 1981 Census

.3 The writings of Amartya Sen have been influential in determining the recent history of this debate. Indeed, Sen’s own assessment that ’wi may be inclined to pick a

India's demography : essays on the contemporary population

Urban growth in India from 1971 to 1981 has been greater than generally anticipated. However the combined aggregate growth rate of Indias 20 largest cities lies well below the national urban average. The acceleration of the nations urbanization is being fueled by the growth of cities in the intermediate size range of 100 thousand to 400 thousand population. There is considerable evidence that the momentum of growth has shifted to larger urban centers in hitherto less urbanized states and that migration has played a prominent role in this differential urbanization process. (authors) (summaries in ENG FRE SPA)

Infant and Child Mortality in Developing Countries

These are the proceedings of a conference on the demography of India held at Worcester College Oxford England on December 14-16 1982. The publication contains three introductory papers summarizing the demographic situation as a whole mortality trends and estimates of fertility decline during the 1970s. The next three papers are derived primarily from large-scale demographic sample surveys being carried out or recently completed in Indias major states. A section of three papers on health policy is then included. The next three papers are concerned with family planning and deal with both the national program and private sector activities. A final section contains two papers on village-level demography.

Smallpox and the impact of vaccination among the Parsees of Bombay

Currently there are approximately 50 million annual deaths throughout the world. About 40 million of these deaths occur in less developed countries (LDCs), where roughly 20 million of the victims are individuals under the age of five. In other words about 40% of the people who die each year are infants and young children in the developing world. Framed thus, the title of this paper may be said to point to the world’s greatest single health problem. And it is not surprising that international organizations and national governments view the reduction of early-age mortality as a key development goal. The U.N. has adopted as a prime objective the approximate halving of the global level of infant mortality before the year 2000 (U.N., 1981). And the United States Foreign Assistance Act stipulates the reduction of infant mortality as a key criterion by which to assess a country’s commitment to the development process.