Robert Langridge

National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update

A team of earthquake geologists, seismologists, and engineering seis- mologists has collectively produced an update of the national probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for New Zealand (National Seismic Hazard Model, or NSHM). The new NSHM supersedes the earlier NSHM published in 2002 and used as the hazard basis for the New Zealand Loadings Standard and numerous other end-user applica- tions. The new NSHM incorporates a fault source model that has been updated with over 200 new onshore and offshore fault sources and utilizes new New Zealand-based and international scaling relationships for the parameterization of the faults. The dis- tributed seismicity model has also been updated to include post-1997 seismicity data, a new seismicity regionalization, and improved methodology for calculation of the seismicity parameters. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps produced from the new NSHM show a similar pattern of hazard to the earlier model at the national scale, but there are some significant reductions and increases in hazard at the regional scale. The national-scale differences between the new and earlier NSHM appear less than those seen between much earlier national models, indicating that some degree of consis- tency has been achieved in the national-scale pattern of hazard estimates, at least for return periods of 475 years and greater. Online Material: Table of fault source parameters for the 2010 national seismic- hazard model.

Major Earthquakes Occur Regularly on an Isolated Plate Boundary Fault

The Sedimentary Life of Earthquakes Estimating the hazards associated with possible large earthquakes depends largely on evidence of prior seismic activity. The relatively new global seismic networks installed to monitor earthquakes, however, have only captured the very recent history of fault zones that can remain active for thousands of years. To understand the recurrence of large earthquakes along the Alpine Fault in New Zealand, Berryman et al. (p. 1690) looked to the sediments near an old creek for evidence of surface ruptures and vertical offset. Along this fault segment, 24 large earthquakes seem to have occurred over the last 6000 years, resulting in a recurrence interval of ∼329 years. The activity is more regular than other similar strike-slip faults, such as the San Andreas Fault in California. Evidence of past earthquakes from sediments along New Zealand’s Alpine Fault improves seismic hazard estimates. The scarcity of long geological records of major earthquakes, on different types of faults, makes testing hypotheses of regular versus random or clustered earthquake recurrence behavior difficult. We provide a fault-proximal major earthquake record spanning 8000 years on the strike-slip Alpine Fault in New Zealand. Cyclic stratigraphy at Hokuri Creek suggests that the fault ruptured to the surface 24 times, and event ages yield a 0.33 coefficient of variation in recurrence interval. We associate this near-regular earthquake recurrence with a geometrically simple strike-slip fault, with high slip rate, accommodating a high proportion of plate boundary motion that works in isolation from other faults. We propose that it is valid to apply time-dependent earthquake recurrence models for seismic hazard estimation to similar faults worldwide.

Complex multifault rupture during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

An earthquake with a dozen faults The 2016 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake was one of the largest ever to hit New Zealand. Hamling et al. show with a new slip model that it was an incredibly complex event. Unlike most earthquakes, multiple faults ruptured to generate the ground shaking. A remarkable 12 faults ruptured overall, with the rupture jumping between faults located up to 15 km away from each other. The earthquake should motivate rethinking of certain seismic hazard models, which do not presently allow for this unusual complex rupture pattern. Science, this issue p. eaam7194 At least 12 faults spaced up to 15 kilometers apart ruptured during the magnitude 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. INTRODUCTION On 14 November 2016 (local time), northeastern South Island of New Zealand was struck by a major moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake. The Kaikōura earthquake was the most powerful experienced in the region in more than 150 years. The whole of New Zealand reported shaking, with widespread damage across much of northern South Island and in the capital city, Wellington. The earthquake straddled two distinct seismotectonic domains, breaking multiple faults in the contractional North Canterbury fault zone and the dominantly strike-slip Marlborough fault system. RATIONALE Earthquakes are conceptually thought to occur along a single fault. Although this is often the case, the need to account for multiple segment ruptures challenges seismic hazard assessments and potential maximum earthquake magnitudes. Field observations from many past earthquakes and numerical models suggest that a rupture will halt if it has to step over a distance as small as 5 km to continue on a different fault. The Kaikōura earthquake’s complexity defies many conventional assumptions about the degree to which earthquake ruptures are controlled by fault segmentation and provides additional motivation to rethink these issues in seismic hazard models. RESULTS Field observations, in conjunction with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), Global Positioning System (GPS), and seismology data, reveal the Kaikōura earthquake to be one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded with modern instrumental techniques. The rupture propagated northward for more than 170 km along both mapped and unmapped faults before continuing offshore at the island’s northeastern extent. A tsunami of up to 3 m in height was detected at Kaikōura and at three other tide gauges along the east coast of both the North and South Islands. Geodetic and geological field observations reveal surface ruptures along at least 12 major crustal faults and extensive uplift along much of the coastline. Surface displacements measured by GPS and satellite radar data show horizontal offsets of ~6 m. In addition, a fault-bounded block (the Papatea block) was uplifted by up to 8 m and translated south by 4 to 5 m. Modeling suggests that some of the faults slipped by more than 20 m, at depths of 10 to 15 km, with surface slip of ~10 m consistent with field observations of offset roads and fences. Although we can explain most of the deformation by crustal faulting alone, global moment tensors show a larger thrust component, indicating that the earthquake also involved some slip along the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction interface, which lies ~20 km beneath Kaikōura. Including this as a fault source in the inversion suggests that up to 4 m of predominantly reverse slip may have occurred on the subduction zone beneath the crustal faults, contributing ~10 to 30% of the total moment. CONCLUSION Although the unusual multifault rupture observed in the Kaikōura earthquake may be partly related to the geometrically complex nature of the faults in this region, this event emphasizes the importance of reevaluating how rupture scenarios are defined for seismic hazard models in plate boundary zones worldwide. Observed ground deformation from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake. (A and B) Photos showing the coastal uplift of 2 to 3 m associated with the Papatea block [labeled in (C)]. The inset in (A) shows an aerial view of New Zealand. Red lines denote the location of known active faults. The black box indicates the Marlborough fault system

Visualization of active faults using geometric attributes of 3D GPR data: An example from the Alpine Fault Zone, New Zealand

Three-dimensional ground-penetrating radar GPR data are routinely acquired for diverse geologic, hydrogeologic, archeological, and civil engineering purposes. Interpretations of these dataareinvariablybasedonsubjectiveanalysesofreflectionpatterns. Such analyses are heavily dependent on interpreter expertiseandexperience.UsingdataacquiredacrossgravelunitsoverlyingtheAlpineFaultZoneinNewZealand,wedemonstratethe utilityofvariousgeometricattributesinreducingthesubjectivity of3DGPRdataanalysis.Weuseacoherence-basedtechniqueto compute the coherency, azimuth, and dip attributes and a graylevel co-occurrence matrixGLCMmethod to compute the texture-basedenergy,entropy,homogeneity,andcontrastattributes. A selection of the GPR attribute volumes allows us to highlight key aspects of the fault zone and observe important features not apparent in the standard images. This selection also provides information that improves our understanding of gravel deposition andtectonicstructuresatthestudysite.Anewdepositional/structuralmodellargelybasedontheresultsofouranalysisofGPRattributes includes four distinct gravel units deposited in three phases and a well-defined fault trace. This fault trace coincides with a zone of stratal disruption and shearing bound on one side by upward-tilted to synclinally folded stratified gravels and on the other side by moderately dipping stratified alluvial-fan gravelsthatcouldhavebeenaffectedbylateralfaultdrag.Whenused in tandem, the coherence- and texture-based attribute volumes can significantly improve the efficiency and quality of 3D GPR interpretation, especially for complex data collected across activefaultzones.

Scale dependence of oblique plate-boundary partitioning: New insights from LiDAR, central Alpine fault, New Zealand

We combine recently acquired airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data along a portion of the Alpine fault with previous work to define the ways in which the plate-boundary structures partition at three different scales from 6 to 10 0 m. At the first order ( 6 –10 4 m), the Alpine fault is a remarkably straight and unpartitioned structure controlled by inherited and active weakening processes at depth. At the second order (10 4 –10 3 m), motion is serially partitioned in the upper ∼1–2 km onto oblique-thrust and strike-slip fault segments that arise at the scale of major river valleys due to stress perturbations from hanging-wall topographic variations and river incision destabilization of the hanging-wall critical wedge, concepts proposed by previous workers. The resolution of the LiDAR data refines second-order mapping and reveals for the first time that at a third order (10 3 –10 0 m), the fault is parallel-partitioned into asymmetric positive flower structures, or fault wedges, in the hanging wall. These fault wedges are bounded by dextral-normal and dextral-thrust faults rooted at shallow depths (

Timing of late Holocene surface rupture of the Wairau Fault, Marlborough, New Zealand

Abstract Three trenches excavated across the central portion of the right‐lateral strike‐slip Wairau Fault in South Island, New Zealand, exposed a complex set of fault strands that have displaced a sequence of late Holocene alluvial and colluvial deposits. Abundant charcoal fragments provide age control for various stratigraphic horizons dating back to c. 5610 yr ago. Faulting relations from the Wadsworth trench show that the most recent surface rupture event occurred at least 1290 yr and at most 2740 yr ago. Drowned trees in landslide‐dammed Lake Chalice, in combination with charcoal from the base of an unfaulted colluvial wedge at Wadsworth trench, suggest a narrower time bracket for this event of 1811–2301 cal. yr BP The penultimate faulting event occurred between c. 2370 and 3380 yr, and possibly near 2680 ± 60 cal. yr BP, when data from both the Wadsworth and Dillon trenches are combined. Two older events have been recognised from Dillon trench but remain poorly dated. A probable elapsed time of at least 1811 yr since the last surface rupture, and an average slip rate estimate for the Wairau Fault of 3–5 mm/yr, suggests that at least 5.4 m and up to 11.5 m of elastic shear strain has accumulated since the last rupture. This is near to or greater than the single‐event displacement estimates of 5–7 m. The average recurrence interval for surface rupture of the fault determined from the trench data is 1150–1400 yr. Although the uncertainties in the timing of faulting events and variability in inter‐event times remain high, the time elapsed since the last event is in the order of 1–2 times the average recurrence interval, implying that the Wairau Fault is near the end of its interseismic period.

Revised slip rates for the Alpine fault at Inchbonnie: Implications for plate boundary kinematics of South Island, New Zealand

The northeast-striking, dextral-reverse Alpine fault transitions into the Marlborough Fault System near Inchbonnie in the central South Island, New Zealand. New slip-rate estimates for the Alpine fault are presented following a reassessment of the geomorphology and age of displaced late Holocene alluvial surfaces of the Taramakau River at Inchbonnie. Progressive avulsion and abandonment of the Taramakau floodplain, aided by fault movements during the late Holocene, have preserved a left-stepping fault scarp that grows in height to the northeast. Surveyed dextral (22.5 ± 2 m) and vertical (4.8 ± 0.5 m) displacements across a left stepover in the fault across an alluvial surface are combined with a precise maximum age from a remnant tree stump (≥1590–1730 yr) to yield dextral, vertical, and reverse-slip rates of 13.6 ± 1.8, 2.9 ± 0.4, and 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. These values are larger (dextral) and smaller (dip slip) than previous estimates for this site, but they reflect advances in the local chronology of surfaces and represent improved time-averaged results over 1.7 k.y. A geological kinematic circuit constructed for the central South Island demonstrates that (1) 69%–89% of the Australian-Pacific plate motion is accommodated by the major faults (Alpine-Hope-Kakapo) in this transitional area, (2) the 50% drop in slip rate on the Alpine fault between Hokitika and Inchbonnie is taken up by the Hope and Kakapo faults at the southwestern edge of the Marlborough Fault System, and (3) the new slip rates are more compatible with contemporary models of strain partitioning presented from geodesy.

A 2000 yr rupture history for the Alpine fault derived from Lake Ellery, South Island, New Zealand

Determining the earthquake segmentation of plate-boundary transform faults remains a scientific challenge because paleoseismic data sets rarely resolve the end points of past ruptures. In this study, we test whether lacustrine paleoseismology can be used to assess rupture end points and the earthquake segmentation of the Alpine fault, one of the longest and fastest-slipping plate-boundary transform faults on Earth. Sediment cores from Lake Ellery record eight episodes of high-intensity shaking (modified Mercalli intensity [MM] IX) from Alpine fault earthquakes as event sequences of a turbidite produced by coseismic subaqueous mass wasting, overlain by deposits representing sediment flux from co- and postseismic landsliding in the fluvial catchment. Age-depth modeling constrains the timing of shaking events at a decadal resolution, facilitating correlation with two previously published lake records to reconstruct the spatial distribution of MM IX shaking along ~150 km of the Alpine fault. When resolved with existing on- and near-fault paleoseismic records, the lake data set demonstrates that independent ruptures of the South Westland and Central segments occurred in A.D. 845–775 and A.D. 739–646, and A.D. 646–592 and A.D. 416–370, respectively. Lakes adjacent to the Alpine fault provide paleoseismic records with sufficient spatial and temporal resolution to define along-strike differences in the pattern of rupture capable of distinguishing rupture termination at a geometric segment boundary. This multilake study suggests that locating the end points of ruptures using lacustrine paleoseismology will be most applicable in midlatitude convergent plate-boundary settings where along-strike topography and Quaternary glaciation have resulted in the widespread distribution of suitable lakes.

Timing of late Holocene paleoearthquakes on the Hurunui segment of the Hope fault: Implications for plate boundary strain release through South Island, New Zealand

The Hurunui segment of the dextral-slip Hope fault extends for ∼42 km between the Hope and Hurunui River catchments and westward to Harper Pass at the Main Divide of South Island. We conducted paleoseismic, soil, and landscape dating studies in the upper Hurunui valley to determine the timing of past earthquake ruptures along this geometric fault segment. On a late Holocene alluvial surface at Matagouri Flat, a young channel system is displaced dextrally by ∼4.5 ± 0.6 m, which is attributed to the most recent faulting event. A trench and soil pits excavated nearby yield evidence for the timing of the last two surface-faulting events. These events, dated from a combination of radiocarbon dates, relative soil, tree, and historical constraints, modified within an OxCal analysis, occurred at ca. A.D. 1655–1835 and 1425–1625. The occurrence of two rupture events during the last ∼600 yr is consistent with previous estimates stating a short recurrence interval for the Hurunui segment. The most recent faulting event in our trenches predates the historic 1888 North Canterbury (Amuri) earthquake, which ruptured the Hope River segment to the east. A comparison of the record from the Hurunui segment with paleoseismic records from other segments along the Hope fault zone indicates evidence for two or three rupture events within the last 700–900 yr. Within the age resolution of the current dates, the data suggest that along-strike rupture occurred along the majority of the Hope fault zone between 120 and 360 yr ago (i.e., A.D. 1650–1888), and may all postdate the most recent rupture of the Alpine fault in ca. A.D. 1717. In addition, the timings of penultimate faulting events along the Hurunui, Hope River, and Conway segments and the Hanmer fault all fall in the range ∼400–700 yr ago. These preliminary observations indicate that rupture of segments of the Hope fault, and indeed the Alpine fault, could occur as clusters that are years to decades apart. Rupture of the major plate boundary faults in the northern South Island may therefore occur in sequences that are enhanced, or even retarded, by stress triggering and fault interactions.

Timing of the most recent surface rupture event on the Ohariu Fault near Paraparaumu, New Zealand

Abstract Thirteen radiocarbon ages from three trenches across the Ohariu Fault tightly constrain the timing of the most recent surface rupture event at Muaupoko Stream valley, c. 2 km east of Paraparaumu, to between 930 and 1050 cal. yr BP. This age overlaps with previously published ages of the most recent event on the Ohariu Fault and together they further constrain the event to 1000–1050 cal. yr BP. Two trenches provide loose constraints on the maximum recurrence interval at 3–7000 yr. Tephra, most probably the Kawakawa Tephra, was found within alluvial fan deposits in two of the trenches.