Nicola Litchfield

National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update

A team of earthquake geologists, seismologists, and engineering seis- mologists has collectively produced an update of the national probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for New Zealand (National Seismic Hazard Model, or NSHM). The new NSHM supersedes the earlier NSHM published in 2002 and used as the hazard basis for the New Zealand Loadings Standard and numerous other end-user applica- tions. The new NSHM incorporates a fault source model that has been updated with over 200 new onshore and offshore fault sources and utilizes new New Zealand-based and international scaling relationships for the parameterization of the faults. The dis- tributed seismicity model has also been updated to include post-1997 seismicity data, a new seismicity regionalization, and improved methodology for calculation of the seismicity parameters. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps produced from the new NSHM show a similar pattern of hazard to the earlier model at the national scale, but there are some significant reductions and increases in hazard at the regional scale. The national-scale differences between the new and earlier NSHM appear less than those seen between much earlier national models, indicating that some degree of consis- tency has been achieved in the national-scale pattern of hazard estimates, at least for return periods of 475 years and greater. Online Material: Table of fault source parameters for the 2010 national seismic- hazard model.

Complex multifault rupture during the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand

An earthquake with a dozen faults The 2016 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake was one of the largest ever to hit New Zealand. Hamling et al. show with a new slip model that it was an incredibly complex event. Unlike most earthquakes, multiple faults ruptured to generate the ground shaking. A remarkable 12 faults ruptured overall, with the rupture jumping between faults located up to 15 km away from each other. The earthquake should motivate rethinking of certain seismic hazard models, which do not presently allow for this unusual complex rupture pattern. Science, this issue p. eaam7194 At least 12 faults spaced up to 15 kilometers apart ruptured during the magnitude 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. INTRODUCTION On 14 November 2016 (local time), northeastern South Island of New Zealand was struck by a major moment magnitude (Mw) 7.8 earthquake. The Kaikōura earthquake was the most powerful experienced in the region in more than 150 years. The whole of New Zealand reported shaking, with widespread damage across much of northern South Island and in the capital city, Wellington. The earthquake straddled two distinct seismotectonic domains, breaking multiple faults in the contractional North Canterbury fault zone and the dominantly strike-slip Marlborough fault system. RATIONALE Earthquakes are conceptually thought to occur along a single fault. Although this is often the case, the need to account for multiple segment ruptures challenges seismic hazard assessments and potential maximum earthquake magnitudes. Field observations from many past earthquakes and numerical models suggest that a rupture will halt if it has to step over a distance as small as 5 km to continue on a different fault. The Kaikōura earthquake’s complexity defies many conventional assumptions about the degree to which earthquake ruptures are controlled by fault segmentation and provides additional motivation to rethink these issues in seismic hazard models. RESULTS Field observations, in conjunction with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), Global Positioning System (GPS), and seismology data, reveal the Kaikōura earthquake to be one of the most complex earthquakes ever recorded with modern instrumental techniques. The rupture propagated northward for more than 170 km along both mapped and unmapped faults before continuing offshore at the island’s northeastern extent. A tsunami of up to 3 m in height was detected at Kaikōura and at three other tide gauges along the east coast of both the North and South Islands. Geodetic and geological field observations reveal surface ruptures along at least 12 major crustal faults and extensive uplift along much of the coastline. Surface displacements measured by GPS and satellite radar data show horizontal offsets of ~6 m. In addition, a fault-bounded block (the Papatea block) was uplifted by up to 8 m and translated south by 4 to 5 m. Modeling suggests that some of the faults slipped by more than 20 m, at depths of 10 to 15 km, with surface slip of ~10 m consistent with field observations of offset roads and fences. Although we can explain most of the deformation by crustal faulting alone, global moment tensors show a larger thrust component, indicating that the earthquake also involved some slip along the southern end of the Hikurangi subduction interface, which lies ~20 km beneath Kaikōura. Including this as a fault source in the inversion suggests that up to 4 m of predominantly reverse slip may have occurred on the subduction zone beneath the crustal faults, contributing ~10 to 30% of the total moment. CONCLUSION Although the unusual multifault rupture observed in the Kaikōura earthquake may be partly related to the geometrically complex nature of the faults in this region, this event emphasizes the importance of reevaluating how rupture scenarios are defined for seismic hazard models in plate boundary zones worldwide. Observed ground deformation from the 2016 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake. (A and B) Photos showing the coastal uplift of 2 to 3 m associated with the Papatea block [labeled in (C)]. The inset in (A) shows an aerial view of New Zealand. Red lines denote the location of known active faults. The black box indicates the Marlborough fault system

Characterizing the seismogenic zone of a major plate boundary subduction thrust: Hikurangi Margin, New Zealand

The Hikurangi subduction margin, New Zealand, has not experienced any significant (>Mw 7.2) subduction interface earthquakes since historical records began ∼170 years ago. Geological data in parts of the North Island provide evidence for possible prehistoric great subduction earthquakes. Determining the seismogenic potential of the subduction interface, and possible resulting tsunami, is critical for estimating seismic hazard in the North Island of New Zealand. Despite the lack of confirmed historical interface events, recent geodetic and seismological results reveal that a large area of the interface is interseismically coupled, along which stress could be released in great earthquakes. We review existing geophysical and geological data in order to characterize the seismogenic zone of the Hikurangi subduction interface. Deep interseismic coupling of the southern portion of the Hikurangi interface is well defined by interpretation of GPS velocities, the locations of slow slip events, and the hypocenters of moderate to large historical earthquakes. Interseismic coupling is shallower on the northern and central portion of the Hikurangi subduction thrust. The spatial extent of the likely seismogenic zone at the Hikurangi margin cannot be easily explained by one or two simple parameters. Instead, a complex interplay between upper and lower plate structure, subducting sediment, thermal effects, regional tectonic stress regime, and fluid pressures probably controls the extent of the subduction thrusts seismogenic zone.

A model of active faulting in New Zealand

Active fault traces are a surface expression of permanent deformation that accommodates the motion within and between adjacent tectonic plates. We present an updated national-scale model for active faulting in New Zealand, summarize the current understanding of fault kinematics in 15 tectonic domains, and undertake some brief kinematic analysis including comparison of fault slip rates with GPS velocities. The model contains 635 simplified faults with tabulated parameters of their attitude (dip and dip-direction) and kinematics (sense of movement and rake of slip vector), net slip rate and a quality code. Fault density and slip rates are, as expected, highest along the central plate boundary zone, but the model is undoubtedly incomplete, particularly in rapidly eroding mountainous areas and submarine areas with limited data. The active fault data presented are of value to a range of kinematic, active fault and seismic hazard studies.

Selection of Earthquake Scaling Relationships for Seismic‐Hazard Analysis

A fundamentally important but typically abbreviated component of seismic‐hazard analysis is the selection of earthquake scaling relationships. These are typically regressions of historical earthquake datasets, in which magnitude is estimated from parameters such as fault rupture length and area. The mix of historical data from different tectonic environments and the different forms of the regression equations can result in large differences in magnitude estimates for a given fault rupture length or area. We compile a worldwide set of regressions and make a first‐order shortlisting of regressions according to their relevance to a range of tectonic regimes (plate tectonic setting and fault slip type) in existence around the world. Regression relevance is based largely on the geographical distribution, age, and quantity/quality of earthquake data used to develop them. Our compilation is limited to regressions of magnitude (or seismic moment) on fault rupture area or length, and our shortlisted regressions show a large magnitude range (up to a full magnitude unit) for a given rupture length or area across the various tectonic regimes. These large differences in magnitude estimates underline the importance of choosing regressions carefully for seismic‐hazard application in different tectonic environments.

Ground Motion and Seismic Source Aspects of the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence

This paper provides an overview of the ground motion and seismic source aspects of the Canterbury earthquake sequence. Common reported attributes among the largest earthquakes in this sequence are complex ruptures, large displacements per unit fault length, and high stress drops. The Darfield earthquake produced an approximately 30 km surface rupture in the Canterbury Plains with dextral surface displacements of several meters, and a subordinate amount of vertical displacement, impacting residential structures, agricultural land, and river channels. The dense set of strong ground motions recorded in the near-source region of all the major events in the sequence provides significant insight into the spatial variability in ground motion characteristics, as well as the significance of directivity, basin-generated surface waves, and nonlinear local site effects. The ground motion amplitudes in the 22 February 2011 earthquake, in particular, produced horizontal ground motion amplitudes in the Central Business District (CBD) well above those specified for the design of conventional structures.

The New Zealand Active Faults Database

ABSTRACT The New Zealand Active Faults Database (NZAFD) is a national geospatial database of active faults – including their locations, names and degrees of activity – that have deformed the ground surface of New Zealand within the last 125,000 years. The NZAFD is used for geological research, hazard modelling and infrastructure planning and is an underlying dataset for other nationally significant hazard applications such as the National Seismic Hazard Model. Recent refinements to the data structure have improved the accuracy of active fault locations and characteristics. A subset of active fault information from the NZAFD, generalised for portrayal and use at a scale of 1:250,000 (and referred to as NZAFD250), is freely available online and can be downloaded in several different formats to suit the needs of a range of users including scientists, governmental authorities and the general public. To achieve a uniform spatial scale of 1:250,000 a simplification of detailed fault locational data was required in some areas, while in other areas new mapping was necessary to provide a consistent level of coverage. Future improvements to the NZAFD will include the incorporation of data on active folds and offshore active faults.

Previously Unknown Fault Shakes New Zealand's South Island

At 4:35 A.M. local time on 4 September (1635 UTC, 3 September), a previously unrecognized fault system ruptured in the Canterbury region of New Zealands South Island, producing a moment magnitude (Mw) 7.1 earthquake that caused widespread damage throughout the area. In stark contrast to the 2010 Mw 7.0 Haiti earthquake, no deaths occurred and only two injuries were reported despite the epicenters location about 40 kilometers west of Christchurch (population ˜386,000). The Canterbury region now faces a rebuilding estimated to cost more than NZ

A revision of mid‐late Holocene marine terrace distribution and chronology at the Pakarae River mouth, North Island, New Zealand

4 billion (US

Associations between volcanic eruptions from Okataina volcanic center and surface rupture of nearby active faults, Taupo rift, New Zealand: Insights into the nature of volcano-tectonic interactions

2.95 billion). On the positive side, this earthquake has provided an opportunity to document the dynamics and effects of a major strike-slip fault rupture in the absence of death or serious injury. The low-relief and well-maintained agricultural landscape of the Canterbury Plains helped scientists characterize very subtle earthquake-related ground deformation at high resolution, helping to classify the earthquakes basic geological features [Quigley et al., 2010]. The prompt mobilization of collaborating scientific teams allowed for rapid data capture immediately after the earthquake, and new scientific programs directed at developing a greater understanding of this event are under way.