Robert S. Thompson

Potential Changes in the Distributions of Western North America Tree and Shrub Taxa under Future Climate Scenarios

Increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases are driving significant changes in global climate. To project potential vegetation response to future climate change, this study uses response surfaces to describe the relationship between bioclimatic variables and the distribution of tree and shrub taxa in western North America. The response surfaces illustrate the probability of the occurrence of a taxon at particular points in climate space. Climate space was defined using three bioclimatic variables: mean temperature of the coldest month, growing degree days, and a moisture index. Species distributions were simulated under present climate using observed data (1951–80, 30-year mean) and under future climate (2090–99, 10-year mean) using scenarios generated by three general circulation models—HADCM2, CGCM1, and CSIRO. The scenarios assume a 1% per year compound increase in greenhouse gases and changes in sulfate (SO4) aerosols based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) IS92a scenario. The results indicate that under future climate conditions, potential range changes could be large for many tree and shrub taxa. Shifts in the potential ranges of species are simulated to occur not only northward but in all directions, including southward of the existing ranges of certain species. The simulated potential distributions of some species become increasingly fragmented under the future climate scenarios, while the simulated potential distributions of other species expand. The magnitudes of the simulated range changes imply significant impacts to ecosystems and shifts in patterns of species diversity in western North America.

Micropaleontological evidence for increased meridional heat transport in the north atlantic ocean during the pliocene.

The Middle Pliocene (∼3 million years ago) has been identified as the last time the Earth was significantly warmer than it was during the Last Interglacial and Holocene. A quantitative micropaleontological paleotemperature transect from equator to high latitudes in the North Atlantic indicates that Middle Pliocene warmth involved increased meridional oceanic heat transport.

Joint investigations of the Middle Pliocene climate I: PRISM paleoenvironmental reconstructions

Abstract The Pliocene epoch represents an important transition from a climate regime with high-frequency, low-amplitude oscillations when the Northern Hemisphere lacked substantial ice sheets, to the typical high-frequency, high-amplitude Middle to Late Pleistocene regime characterized by glacial—interglacial cycles that involve waxing and waning of major Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Analysis of middle Pliocene (∼3 Ma) marine and terrestrial records throughout the Northern Hemisphere forms the basis of an integrated synoptic Pliocene paleoclimate reconstruction of the last significantly warmer than present interval in Earth history. This reconstruction, developed primarily from paleontological data, includes middle Pliocene sea level, vegetation, land—ice distribution, sea—ice distribution, and sea-surface temperature (SST), all of which contribute to our conceptual understanding of this climate system. These data indicate middle Pliocene sea level was at least 25 m higher than present, presumably due in large part to a reduction in the size of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. Sea surface temperatures were essentially equivalent to modern temperatures in tropical regions but were significantly warmer at higher latitudes. Due to increased heat flux to high latitudes, both the Arctic and Antarctic appear to have been seasonally ice free during the middle Pliocene with greatly reduced sea ice extent relative to today during winter. Vegetation changes, while more complex, are generally consistent with marine SST changes and show increased warmth and moisture at higher latitudes during the middle Pliocene.

Joint investigations of the middle Pliocene climate II: GISS GCM Northern Hemisphere results

Marine microfaunal data and terrestrial pollen records indicate that the middle Pliocene (ca. 3 Ma) climate is the most recent period in geologic history with global temperatures nearly as warm as those predicted for the coming century. We used the GISS GCM to examine the Pliocene climate by specifying sea surface temperatures and vegetation distributions derived from U.S.G.S. data sets. The simulation resulted in 1.4°C warming, annually averaged over the Northern Hemisphere. Warming was greatest at high latitudes; consequently, the equator to pole temperature gradient decreased by 11.5°C. Surface air temperature increases were greatest in winter, as decreased snow and sea ice triggered a positive albedo feedback effect. At low latitudes, temperatures were mostly unchanged except for an anomalous 3°C cooling over eastern Africa. This anomaly is supported by palynological data and, in the simulation, was a response to the weakening of the Hadley circulation, which used subtropical clouds and evapotranspiration rates to increase. Evaporation and precipitation rates decreased over the oceans and the appearance of negative P-E anomalies might implications for the Pliocene thermohaline circulation. The hydrological cycle intensified over the continents, where annual evaporation, rainfall, and soil moisture all increased. However, simulated summer drought conditions are not corroborated by terrestrial records, pointing to deficiencies in either the model, the boundary conditions, or the terrestrial data interpretations. The Pliocene SST pattern implicates increased ocean heat flux as a component force behind the middle Pliocene warmth, since levels of CO2, large enough to cause the extreme high latitude temperatures, would generate more tropical warming than is indicated by floral and faunal records. Surface energy fluxes, calculated by the GCM, indicate that an increased meridional ocean heat flux of 32% could reproduce the data-derived SST distribution, despite weakened atmospheric transports. The decreased wind stress valuessuggest that any increase of ocean heat transports would probably have resulted from a strentthening of the thermohaline circulation.

Middle Pliocene vegetation: reconstructions, paleoclimatic inferences, and boundary conditions for climate modeling

Abstract The general characteristics of global vegetation during the middle Pliocene warm period can be reconstructed from fossil pollen and plant megafossil data. The largest differences between Pliocene vegetation and that of today occurred at high latitudes in both hemispheres, where warming was pronounced relative to today. In the Northern Hemisphere coniferous forests lived in the modern tundra and polar desert regions, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere southern beech apparently grew in coastal areas of Antarctica. Pliocene middle latitude vegetation differed less, although moister-than-modern conditions supported forest and woodland growth in some regions now covered by steppe or grassland. Pliocene tropical vegetation reflects essentially modem conditions in some regions and slightly cooler-than-or warmer-than- modern climates in other areas. Changes in topography induced by tectonics may be responsible for many of the climatic changes since the Pliocene in both middle and lower latitudes. However, the overall latitudinal progression of climatic conditions on land parallels that seen in the reconstruction of middle Pliocene sea-surface temperatures. Pliocene paleovegetational data was employed to construct a 2 ° × 2 ° global grid of estimated mid-Pliocene vegetational cover for use as boundary conditions for numerical General Circulation Model simulations of middle Pliocene climates. Continental outlines and topography were first modified to represent the Pliocene landscape on the 2 ° × 2 ° grid. A modern 1 ° × 1 ° vegetation grid was simplified and mapped on this Pliocene grid, and then modified following general geographic trends evident in the Pliocene paleovegetation data set.

Pliocene environments and climates in the western United States

Abstract The available evidence from the western United States suggests that the climate of the Early and Middle Pliocene (prior to ∼2.4 Ma) was less seasonal (more equable) and generally more humid than now. Along the Pacific coast, summer drought was less pronounced than today. In the interior of the Pacific Northwest rainfall was more abundant and mild winter temperatures prevailed across much of the High Plains. In the Northwestern interior, a trend toward drier conditions began after ∼4 Ma, although there may have been short periods of relatively humid conditions after this time. The period between 2.5 or 2.4-2.0 Ma was drier than earlier in the Pliocene throughout the American West, and apparently colder in many regions, although the occurrence of land tortoises as far north as Kansas may indicate intermittent frost-free conditions during this interval. After ∼2.0 Ma conditions became warmer and more humid. The general climatic trends in the terrestrial data parallel fluctuations seen in North Pacific and in Oxygen Isotopic records of global glacial fluctuations. Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations of the regional effects of Late Cenozoic uplift and mountain-building are generally in accord with the nature, direction, and amplitude of differences between Pliocene and modern climates.

Late Quaternary environments in Ruby Valley, Nevada

Abstract Palynological data from sediment cores from the Ruby Marshes provide a record of environmental and climatic changes over the last 40,000 yr. The modern marsh waters are fresh, but no deeper than ∼3 m. A shallow saline lake occupied this basin during the middle Wisconsin, followed by fresh and perhaps deep waters by 18,000 to 15,000 yr B.P. No sediments were recovered for the period between 15,000 and 11,000 yr B.P., possibly due to lake desiccation. By 10,800 yr B.P. a fresh-water lake was again present, and deeper-than-modern conditions lasted until 6800 yr B.P. The middle Holocene was characterized by very shallow water, and perhaps complete desiccation. The marsh system deepened after 4700 yr B.P., and fresh-water conditions persisted until modern times. Vegetation changes in Ruby Valley were more gradual than those seen in the paleolimno-logical record. Sagebrush steppe was more widespread than at present through the late Pleistocene and early Holocene, giving way somewhat to expanded shadscale vegetation between 8500 and 6800 yr B.P. Shadscale steppe contracted by 4000 yr B.P., but had greater than modern coverage until 1000 to 500 yr ago. Pinyon-juniper woodland was established in the southern Ruby Mountains by 4700 yr B.P.

Pliocene and early Pleistocene environments and climates of the western Snake River Plain, Idaho

Sedimentological, palynological, and magnetic susceptibility data provide paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic information from a 989 ft (301 m) core of sediments from the upper Glenns Ferry and Bruneau Formations from near the town of Bruneau in Owyhee County, Idaho. Chronology is based on stratigraphic position, paleomagnetism, and biostratigraphic data, which collectively suggest a late Gauss Normal-Polarity Chron age for the Glenns Ferry sediments and a middle Matuyama Reversed-Polarity Chron age for the Bruneau sediments. A deep lake was present on the western Snake River Plain during the portions of the time represented by the Glenns Ferry Formation, and the mudstones of the lower half of the core were apparently deposited in this lake. The terminal regression of the Glenns Ferry lake may be represented in the Bruneau core by sandy mudstones and sands that overlie the deep-water mudstones. A cobble layer present in the core between the Glenns Ferry lake beds and those of the overlying Bruneau Formation may indicate through-flow by the ancestral Snake River. Palynological data from the Glenns Ferry sediments in the Bruneau core reveal a pollen flora similar to the modern regional pollen flora, with very rare occurrences of now-extirpated taxa common earlier in the Tertiary. Palynological data from the Pliocene portion of this core indicate conditions more moist than today, with cooler summers and perhaps warmer winters. Quasi-periodic fluctuations in coniferous pollen (primarily Pinus) versus arid steppe taxa (primarily Chenopodiaceae/Amar-anthus) indicate significant variations in moisture through the lower two-thirds of the Glenns Ferry portion of the core. Shorter wave-length fluctuations in magnetic susceptibility and (inversely) Artemisia may reflect variations in temperature or other unidentified climatic variables. The pollen spectra from the Bruneau Formation sediments in the Bruneau core are dominated by Artemisia and resemble those of the Wisconsinan glacial period on the Snake River Plain, and hence indicate cold and dry conditions during some portion of the early Pleistocene. The deep-water Glenns Ferry lacustrine episode appears to date between approximately 3.5 to 3.3 and 2.5 Ma, and thus occurred during the middle Pliocene period of warmer-than-modern global temperatures. Similar sustained wetter-than-present conditions occurred in the same age range at sites across the western U.S.A. from southern California and Arizona to northern California and Idaho. This moist period was apparently followed by an interval of regional arid conditions that persisted for several hundred thousand years.

Quaternary vegetation and climate change in the western United States: Developments, perspectives, and prospects

Publisher Summary This chapter explores the strengths and shortcomings of the major sources of data on Quaternary vegetation and climate change and discusses the use of models as a means to explore past and potential future environmental changes. The flora and major vegetation types of the western United States are present for several million years. Ongoing changes in atmospheric chemistry, climate, and human activities may lead to major vegetation changes over the coming decades to centuries. The combination of observations from the paleoenvironmental record, modern ecological studies, and modeling now permit assessments of the magnitude of potential future changes in the context of natural variability. They also provide opportunities for hypothesis testing and identification of the processes driving past changes in vegetation and climate. Understanding the dynamics of paleoenvironmental change can contribute to current conservation and natural resource management efforts and will help conservation and natural resource managers anticipate the potential rate, magnitude, and complexity of future vegetation change.

A multi-proxy record of hydroclimate, vegetation, fire, and post-settlement impacts for a subalpine plateau, central Rocky Mountains, U.S.A

Apparent changes in vegetation distribution, fire, and other disturbance regimes throughout western North America have prompted investigations of the relative importance of human activities and climate change as potential causal mechanisms. Assessing the effects of Euro-American settlement is difficult because climate changes occur on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and require longer time perspectives than historic observations can provide. Here, we report vegetation and environmental changes over the past ~13,000 years as recorded in a sediment record from Bison Lake, a subalpine lake on a high plateau in northwestern Colorado. Results are based on multiple independent proxies, which include pollen, charcoal, and elemental geochemistry, and are compared with previously reported interpretations of hydroclimatic changes from oxygen isotope ratios. The pollen data indicate a slowly changing vegetation sequence from sagebrush steppe during the late glacial to coniferous forest through the late Holocene. The most dramatic vegetation changes of the Holocene occurred during the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ (MCA) and ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA) with rapid replacement of conifer forest by grassland followed by an equally rapid return to conifer forest. Late Holocene vegetation responses are mirrored by changes in fire, lake biological productivity, and watershed erosion. These combined records indicate that subsequent disturbance related to Euro-American settlement, although perhaps significant, had acted upon a landscape that was already responding to MCA-LIA hydroclimatic change. Results document both rapid and long-term subalpine grassland ecosystem dynamics driven by agents of change that can be anticipated in the future and simulated by ecosystem models.