Roger C. Bales

Mountain hydrology of the western United States

Climate change and climate variability, population growth, and land use change drive the need for new hydrologic knowledge and understanding. In the mountainous West and other similar areas worldwide, three pressing hydrologic needs stand out: first, to better understand the processes controlling the partitioning of energy and water fluxes within and out from these systems; second, to better understand feedbacks between hydrological fluxes and biogeochemical and ecological processes; and, third, to enhance our physical and empirical understanding with integrated measurement strategies and information systems. We envision an integrative approach to monitoring, modeling, and sensing the mountain environment that will improve understanding and prediction of hydrologic fluxes and processes. Here extensive monitoring of energy fluxes and hydrologic states are needed to supplement existing measurements, which are largely limited to streamflow and snow water equivalent. Ground-based observing systems must be explicitly designed for integration with remotely sensed data and for scaling up to basins and whole ranges. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Estimating the spatial distribution of snow in mountain basins using remote sensing and energy balance modeling

We present a modeling approach that couples information about snow cover duration from remote sensing with a distributed energy balance model to calculate the spatial distribution of snow water equivalence (SWE) in a 1.2 km 2 mountain basin at the peak of the accumulation season. In situ measurements of incident solar radiation, incident longwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed were distributed around the basin on the basis of topography. Snow surface albedo was assumed to be spatially constant and to decrease with time. Distributed snow surface temperature was estimated as a function of modeled air temperature. We computed the energy balance for each pixel at hourly intervals using the estimated radiative fluxes and bulk-aerodynamic turbulent-energy flux algorithms from a snowpack energy and mass balance model. Fractional snow cover within each pixel was estimated from three multispectral images (Landsat thematic mapper), one at peak accumulation and two during snowmelt, using decision trees and a spectral mixture model; from these we computed snow cover duration at subpixel resolution. The total cumulative energy for snowmelt at each remote sensing date was weighted by the fraction of each pixels area that lost its snow cover by that date to determine an initial SWE for each pixel. We tested the modeling approach in the well-studied Emerald Lake basin in the southern Sierra Nevada. With no parameter fitting the modeled spatial pattern of SWE and the mean basin SWE agreed with intensive field survey data. As the modeling approach requires only a remote sensing time series and an ability to estimate the energy balance over the model domain, it should prove useful for computing SWE distributions at peak accumulation over larger areas, where extensive field measurements of SWE are not practical.

CONFIDENCE BUILDERS Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User Perspectives

Abstract Water managers, cattle ranchers, and wildland fire managers face several barriers to effectively using climate forecasts. Repeatedly, these decision makers state that they lack any quantitative basis for evaluating forecast credibility. That is because the evaluations currently available typically reflect forecaster perspectives rather thanthose of users, or are not available in forms that users can easily obtain or understand. Seasonal climateforecasts are evaluated from the perspective of distinct user groups, considering lead times, seasons, and criteria relevant to their specific situations. Examples show how results targeted for different user perspectives can providedifferent assessments of forecast performance. The forecasts evaluated are the official seasonal temperature andprecipitation outlooks issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, produced in their present format since December 1994. It is considered how forecast formats can affect the ease, accuracy, and reliability of interpr...

Scaling snow observations from the point to the grid element: Implications for observation network design

[1] The spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) within 16-, 4-, and 1-km2 grid elements surrounding six snow telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the Rio Grande headwaters was characterized using field observations of snowpack properties, satellite data, binary regression tree models, and a spatially distributed net radiation/temperature index snowpack mass balance model. In some cases, SNOTEL SWE values were 200% greater than mean grid element SWE. Analyses designed to identify the optimal location for measuring mean grid element SWE accumulation indicated that only 2.4% of each grid element satisfied the criteria of optimality. Similar analyses for the ablation season showed that point SWE and mean grid element SWE were highly correlated (r = 0.73) in areas with relatively persistent snow cover. These locations did not overlap in space with areas deemed optimal at maximum accumulation; areas with persistent snow cover have relatively high accumulation rates. Therefore future observations may need to be placed with the specific objective of representing either accumulation or ablation season processes. These results have implications for large-scale studies that require ground observations for updating purposes; we show an example of this utility using the SWE product of the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. Furthermore, the relatively consistent spatial patterns of snow accumulation and melt have implications for future observation network design in that results from short-term studies (e.g., 2 years) can be used to design long-term observation networks. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

MS-2 AND POLIOVIRUS TRANSPORT IN POROUS MEDIA : HYDROPHOBIC EFFECTS AND CHEMICAL PERTURBATIONS

In a series of pH 7 continuous-flow column experiments, removal of the bacteriophage MS-2 by attachment to silica beads had a strong, systematic dependence on the amount of hydrophobic surface present on the beads. With no hydrophobic surface, removal of phage at pH 5 was much greater than at pH 7. Release of attached phage at both pH values did occur, but was slow; breakthrough curves exhibited tailing. Poliovirus attached to silica beads at pH 5.5 much more than at pH 7.0, and attachment was also slowly reversible. Time scales for phage and poliovinis attachment were of the order of hours. The sticking efficiency factor (α), reflecting microscaie physicochemical influences on virus attachment, was in the range of 0.0007–0.02. Phage release was small but measurable under steady state conditions. Release was enhanced by lowering ionic strength and by introducing beef extract, a high-ionic-strength protein solution. Results show that viruses experience reversible attachment/detachment (sometimes termed sorption), that large chemical perturbations are needed to induce rapid virus detachment, and that viruses should be quite mobile in sandy porous media. Even small amounts of hydrophobic organic material in the porous media (≥0.001%) can retard virus transport.

Atmosphere‐to‐snow‐to‐firn transfer studies of HCHO at Summit, Greenland

Formaldehyde (HCHO) measurements in snow, firn, atmosphere, and air in the open pore space of the firn (firn air) at Summit, Greenland, in June 1996 show that the top snow layers are a HCHO source. HCHO concentrations in fresh snow are higher than those in equilibrium with atmospheric concentrations, resulting in HCHO degassing in the days to weeks following snowfall. Maximum HCHO concentrations in firn air were 1.5–2.2 ppbv, while the mean atmospheric HCHO concentration 1 m above the surface was 0.23 ppbv. Apparent HCHO fluxes out of the snow are a plausible explanation for the discrepancy between the 0.1 ppbv atmospheric concentration predicted by photochemical modeling and the measurements. HCHO in deeper firn is near equilibrium with the lower tropospheric HCHO concentration at the annual average temperature. Thus HCHO in ice may in fact be linearly related to multi-year average atmospheric concentrations through a temperature dependent partition coefficient.

Bacterial transport in laboratory columns and filters : influence of ionic strength and pH on collision efficiency

Abstract The influence of ionic strength and pH on the transport of Pseudomonas fluorescens P17 in porous media was investigated using continuous-flow laboratory columns and a rapid screening technique in which radiolabeled cells were applied to large-pore, glass-fiber filters. Colloid-filtration theory was used to interpret P17 transport results in the two systems. Bacterial retention was directly related to the ionic strength of the carrying solution. Decreasing the ionic strength from 10 −1 to 10 −5 M caused the bacterial collision efficiency, α, to decrease nearly 90% (from 0.18 to 0.026 in screening experiments and from 0.12 to 0.015 in column experiments). This change in α is qualitatively consistent with double-layer theory, but suggests that very large changes in ionic strength are needed to influence transport. Bacterial transport was unaffected by changes in pH in the range of 5.5

Bacteriophage and microsphere transport in saturated porous media: Forced-gradient experiment at Borden, Ontario

A two-well forced-gradient experiment involving virus and microsphere transport was carried out in a sandy aquifer in Borden, Ontario, Canada. Virus traveled at least a few meters in the experiment, but virus concentrations at observation points 1 and 2.54 m away from the injection well were a small fraction of those injected. A simplified planar radial advection-dispersion equation with constant dispersivity, coupled with equilibrium and reversiblefirst-order mass transfer, was found to be adequate to simulate the attachment and transport process. During the experiment a short-duration injection of high-pH water was also made, which caused detachment of previously attached viruses. For simulating this detachment and associated transport, the same transport and mass- transfer equations were used; but all rate parameters were varied as groundwaterpH changed from 7.4 to 8.4 and then back to 7.4. The physicochemical parameters obtained fromfitting breakthrough curves at one sampling well were used to predict those at another well downstream. However, laboratory-determined parameters overpredicted colloid removal. The predicted pattern and timing of biocolloid breakthrough was in agreement with observations, though the data showed a more-disperse breakthrough than expected from modeling. Though clearly not an equilibrium process, retardation involving a dynamic steady state between attachment and detachment was nevertheless a major determinant of transport versus retention of virus in thisfield experiment.

Dissolution kinetics of chrysotile at pH 7 to 10

The rate of chrysotile dissolution over five days was studied in constant-pH, batch suspensions at 25°C. After the first day, release of Mg occurred at a constant rate and exhibited a fractional dependence on pH, [H^+]^(0.24). Interpreted in terms of a site-binding model for adsorption of protons on the surface, this fractional dependence implies that the rate is limited by a chemical reaction involving less than one adsorbed proton per Mg released into solution. The actual magnitude of the rate (10^(−15.7) mol cm^(−2) s^(−1) at pH 8) supports this interpretation. The inorganics NO_3^−, C_l^−, HCO_3^− and SO_4^(2-) and the organics catechol and oxalate affected the rate of Mg release only during the initial 12 to 24 hours of each experiment. Silica release was linear from the outset of each experiment, but showed no definite pH dependence.

Annual accumulation for Greenland updated using ice core data developed during 2000--2006 and analysis of daily coastal meteorological data

An updated accumulation map for Greenland is presented on the basis of 39 new ice core estimates of accumulation, 256 ice sheet estimates from ice cores and snow pits used in previous maps, and reanalysis of time series data from 20 coastal weather stations. The period 1950-2000 is better represented by the data than are earlier periods. Ice-sheetwide accumulation was estimated based on kriging. The average accumulation (95 confidence interval, or ±2 times standard error) over the Greenland ice sheet is 30.0 ± 2.4 g cm -2 a-1, with the average accumulation above 2000-m elevation being essentially the same, 29.9 ± 2.2 g cm-2 a -1. At higher elevations the new accumulation map maintains the main features shown in previous maps. However, there are five coastal areas with obvious differences: southwest, northwest, and eastern regions, where the accumulation values are 20-50 lower than previously estimated, and southeast and northeast regions, where the accumulation values are 20-50 higher than previously estimated. These differences are almost entirely due to new coastal data. The much lower accumulation in the southwest and the much higher accumulation in the southeast indicated by the current map mean that long-term mass balance in both catchments is closer to steady state than previously estimated. However, uncertainty in these areas remains high owing to strong gradients in precipitation from the coast inland. A significant and sustained precipitation measurement program will be needed to resolve this uncertainty. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.