Roger Cliff

Modernizing China's Military: Opportunities and Constraints

Abstract : The purpose of this study is to assess future resource constraints on, and potential domestic economic and industrial contributions to, the ability of the Chinese military to become a significant threat to U.S. forces by 2025. The authors conducted this assessment by answering the following questions: (1) What will be the likely shape and size of the Chinese economy over the next two decades?; (2) What types of constraints will the Chinese government face in terms of drawing on increased economic output for spending on the military?; (3) What problems will the military face and what possibilities will it have in terms of purchasing the goods and services it desires from the Chinese defense industry?; and (4) How will these constraints and opportunities shape the capabilities of the Chinese armed forces over the next two decades? The authors developed answers to these questions using a variety of information sources and analytical techniques. Chinese statistical data, analyses of the Chinese economy, and a model of the Chinese economy were used to address the question of economic growth and size. The rich literature discussing tax, social, and fiscal policies in China was married with a statistical analysis of Chinese spending and the economic analysis to address the questions of budgetary constraints. To evaluate the health of Chinas defense industries, they engaged in an extensive analysis of open-source Chinese and English-language information on these industries and interviews with knowledgeable industry specialists to determine institutional reforms in Chinas defense industries, including contracting procedures. Estimates of the current and future size of Chinese military expenditures drew on newly available Chinese-language primary sources on defense budgeting and local expenditures, Chinese statistical material, and a military forecasting model developed for this study.

US policy options toward an emerging China

Abstract The debate over how to respond to Chinas emergence on the world stage is often simplistic, limited to the stark alternatives of ‘containment’ or ‘engagement.’ In addition to these two options, the United States could also seek to ‘transform’ China into a democracy or to ‘condition’ its behaviour through a mix of inducements and punishments. All of these options have different assumptions regarding the impact of interdependence, the prospects for democratization, and the likelihood of confronting a hostile China in the future. Despite the claims of engagements advocates, the effects of democratization and interdependence are uncertain at best, suggesting that caution is in order. Conversely, Beijing would be highly hostile to any shift from engagement, and US allies also would not support a change under present conditions. No consensus in the United States has emerged to replace engagement. Thus, although many of engagements premises are not sound, it remains the most feasible policy under pres...