William J. Randel

The quasi‐biennial oscillation

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the equatorial stratosphere (∼16–50 km) and is easily seen as downward propagating easterly and westerly wind regimes, with a variable period averaging approximately 28 months. From a fluid dynamical perspective, the QBO is a fascinating example of a coherent, oscillating mean flow that is driven by propagating waves with periods unrelated to that of the resulting oscillation. Although the QBO is a tropical phenomenon, it affects the stratospheric flow from pole to pole by modulating the effects of extratropical waves. Indeed, study of the QBO is inseparable from the study of atmospheric wave motions that drive it and are modulated by it. The QBO affects variability in the mesosphere near 85 km by selectively filtering waves that propagate upward through the equatorial stratosphere, and may also affect the strength of Atlantic hurricanes. The effects of the QBO are not confined to atmospheric dynamics. Chemical constituents, such as ozone, water vapor, and methane, are affected by circulation changes induced by the QBO. There are also substantial QBO signals in many of the shorter-lived chemical constituents. Through modulation of extratropical wave propagation, the QBO has an effect on the breakdown of the wintertime stratospheric polar vortices and the severity of high-latitude ozone depletion. The polar vortex in the stratosphere affects surface weather patterns, providing a mechanism for the QBO to have an effect at the Earths surface. As more data sources (e.g., wind and temperature measurements from both ground-based systems and satellites) become available, the effects of the QBO can be more precisely assessed. This review covers the current state of knowledge of the tropical QBO, its extratropical dynamical effects, chemical constituent transport, and effects of the QBO in the troposphere (∼0–16 km) and mesosphere (∼50–100 km). It is intended to provide a broad overview of the QBO and its effects to researchers outside the field, as well as a source of information and references for specialists. The history of research on the QBO is discussed only briefly, and the reader is referred to several historical review papers. The basic theory of the QBO is summarized, and tutorial references are provided.

THE COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 MISSION : Early Results

The radio occultation (RO) technique, which makes use of radio signals transmitted by the global positioning system (GPS) satellites, has emerged as a powerful and relatively inexpensive approach for sounding the global atmosphere with high precision, accuracy, and vertical resolution in all weather and over both land and ocean. On 15 April 2006, the joint Taiwan-U.S. Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC)/Formosa Satellite Mission 3 (COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3, hereafter COSMIC) mission, a constellation of six microsatellites, was launched into a 512-km orbit. After launch the satellites were gradually deployed to their final orbits at 800 km, a process that took about 17 months. During the early weeks of the deployment, the satellites were spaced closely, offering a unique opportunity to verify the high precision of RO measurements. As of September 2007, COSMIC is providing about 2000 RO soundings per day to support the research and operational communities. COSMIC RO dat...

GSWM-98: Results for migrating solar tides

We report on new global-scale wave model (GSWM) predictions for the migrating solar tide in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The model revision, hereafter GSWM-98, includes an updated gravity wave (GW) stress parameterization and modifications to the background atmosphere based on 6-year monthly averaged Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) climatologies. UARS Halogen Occultation Experiment and Microwave Limb Sounder ozone data are used to define the strato-mesospheric tidal source, while GSWM-98 background winds are based on UARS High Resolution Doppler Interferometer (HRDI) zonal mean zonal wind data. We quantify and interpret differences between previous diurnal and semidiurnal predictions, hereafter GSWM-95, and GSWM-98 results. The revised GW stress parameterization accounts for the most profound changes and leads to seasonal variability predictions that are consistent with diurnal amplitudes observed in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Unresolved differences between HRDI and other wind climatologies significantly affect MLT tidal predictions.

Coherent variations of monthly mean total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature

Space-time patterns of correlation between total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature are documented, based on 14 years (1979-1992) of global monthly mean observations. Data are obtained from the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and microwave sounding unit (MSU) channel 4, the latter being a weighted mean temperature of the 150- to 50-mbar layer. These data are analyzed (separately) for linear trend, solar cycle, quasi- biennial oscillation (QBO), and E1 Nifio-Southem Oscillation (ENSO) variations via linear regression: significant signals are identified for each term, and the corresponding structures in ozone and temperature are found to be highly coherent. The temperature trends derived here show significant cooling of the lower stratosphere over Northem Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in winter-spring and over Antartica in Southern Hemisphere (SH) spring; the overall space-time patterns are similar to those determined for ozone trends. Interestingly, temperatures do not decrease over SH midlatitudes during midwinter, in spite of large ozone losses. These data furthermore show globally coherent ozone and temperature perturbations associated with both QBO and ENSO variations; a new result here shows large total ozone anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes of both hemispheres associated with ENSO events. Residuals from the ozone and temperature time series (defined as the deseasonalized total minus the regression fits) show strong positive correlation in middle-to-high latitudes but weak correlations in the tropics. Time periods following the volcanic eruptions of E1 Chichon and Pinatubo are clearly identified from the coupled signatures of decreased ozone and increased temperature, opposite to the positive ozone- temperature correlations observed at other times. The ratios of ozone to temperature anomalies derived here show quantitative signatures indicating that either radiative (trend, solar, and QBO) or dynamical (ENSO and residuals) processes are responsible for the strong ozone-temperature correlations.

Interannual variability of the tropical tropopause derived from radiosonde data and NCEP reanalyses

Interannual variability of the tropical tropopause is studied using long time series of radiosonde data, together with global tropopause analyses from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses over 1957–1997. Comparisons for the period 1979–1997 show the NCEP tropopause temperature is too warm by ∼3–5 K and too high in pressure by ∼2–6 mbar. However, these biases are approximately constant in time, so that seasonal and interannual variability is reasonably well captured by the NCEP data. Systematic differences in NCEP tropopause statistics are observed between the presatellite (1957–1978) and postsatellite (1979–1997) periods, precluding the use of the reanalyses for the study of multidecadal variability. Interannual anomalies in tropical average radiosonde and NCEP data show variations of order ±1–2 K over the period 1979–1997, but there can be differences between these two estimates which are of similar magnitude. These differences impact estimates of decadal trends: During 1979–1997, negative trends in tropopause temperature of order −0.5 K/decade are observed in radiosonde data but are not found in NCEP reanalyses. The space-time patterns of several coherent signals are identified in both sets of tropopause statistics. The volcanic eruption of El Chichon (1982) warmed the tropical tropopause by ∼1–2 K and lowered its altitude by ∼200 m for approximately 1–2 years. Smaller tropopause variations are observed following Mount Pinatubo (1991), particularly in radiosonde data. The signatures of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are strong in tropopause statistics. QBO variations are primarily zonal mean in character, while ENSO events exhibit dipole patterns over Indonesia and the central Pacific Ocean, with small signals for zonal averages.

Seasonal Cycles and QBO Variations in Stratospheric CH4 and H2O Observed in UARS HALOE Data

Abstract Measurements of stratospheric methane (CH4) and water vapor (H2O) are used to investigate seasonal and interannual variability in stratospheric transport. Data are from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) spanning 1991–97. Profile measurements are binned according to analyzed potential vorticity fields (equivalent latitude mapping), and seasonal cycles are fit using harmonic regression analysis. Methane data from the UARS Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer and water vapor from the Microwave Limb Sounder are also used to fill in winter polar latitudes (where HALOE measurements are unavailable), yielding complete global seasonal cycles. These data reveal well-known seasonal variations with novel detail, including 1) the presence of enhanced latitudinal gradients (mixing barriers) in the subtropics and across the polar vortices, 2) strong descent inside the polar vortices during winter and spring, and 3) vigorous seasonality in the tropi...

Asian Monsoon Transport of Pollution to the Stratosphere

Riding the Monsoon Most air transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere occurs in the tropics, but additional transport may occur in areas of strong upward convection. Randel et al. (p. 611, published online 25 March) report satellite measurements of atmospheric hydrogen cyanide over the region where the Asian summer monsoon occurs, which indicate that air is transported from the surface to deep within the stratosphere. This mechanism represents a pathway for pollutants to enter the global stratosphere, where they might affect ozone chemistry, aerosol characteristics, and radiative properties. Satellite observations of atmospheric hydrogen cyanide reveal that the Asian monsoon transports air deep into the stratosphere. Transport of air from the troposphere to the stratosphere occurs primarily in the tropics, associated with the ascending branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Here, we identify the transport of air masses from the surface, through the Asian monsoon, and deep into the stratosphere, using satellite observations of hydrogen cyanide (HCN), a tropospheric pollutant produced in biomass burning. A key factor in this identification is that HCN has a strong sink from contact with the ocean; much of the air in the tropical upper troposphere is relatively depleted in HCN, and hence, broad tropical upwelling cannot be the main source for the stratosphere. The monsoon circulation provides an effective pathway for pollution from Asia, India, and Indonesia to enter the global stratosphere.

Acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation due to Increases in Greenhouse Gases

Abstract The acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation under rising concentrations of greenhouse gases is investigated using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The circulation strengthens as a result of increased wave driving in the subtropical lower stratosphere, which in turn occurs because of enhanced propagation and dissipation of waves in this region. Enhanced wave propagation is due to changes in tropospheric and lower-stratospheric zonal-mean winds, which become more westerly. Ultimately, these trends follow from changes in the zonal-mean temperature distribution caused by the greenhouse effect. The circulation in the middle and upper stratosphere also accelerates as a result of filtering of parameterized gravity waves by stronger subtropical westerly winds.

An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends

An updated analysis of observed stratospheric temperature variability and trends is presented on the basis of satellite, radiosonde, and lidar observations. Satellite data include measurements from the series of NOAA operational instruments, including the Microwave Sounding Unit covering 1979–2007 and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) covering 1979–2005. Radiosonde results are compared for six different data sets, incorporating a variety of homogeneity adjustments to account for changes in instrumentation and observational practices. Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of ∼0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979–2007, with some differences in detail among the different radiosonde and satellite data sets. Substantially larger cooling trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole. Trends in the lower stratosphere derived from radiosonde data are also analyzed for a longer record (back to 1958); trends for the presatellite era (1958–1978) have a large range among the different homogenized data sets, implying large trend uncertainties. Trends in the middle and upper stratosphere have been derived from updated SSU data, taking into account changes in the SSU weighting functions due to observed atmospheric CO2 increases. The results show mean cooling of 0.5–1.5 K/decade during 1979–2005, with the greatest cooling in the upper stratosphere near 40–50 km. Temperature anomalies throughout the stratosphere were relatively constant during the decade 1995–2005. Long records of lidar temperature measurements at a few locations show reasonable agreement with SSU trends, although sampling uncertainties are large in the localized lidar measurements. Updated estimates of the solar cycle influence on stratospheric temperatures show a statistically significant signal in the tropics (∼30°N–S), with an amplitude (solar maximum minus solar minimum) of ∼0.5 K (lower stratosphere) to ∼1.0 K (upper stratosphere).

The SPARC Intercomparison of Middle-Atmosphere Climatologies

An updated assessment of uncertainties in ‘‘observed’’ climatological winds and temperatures in the middle atmosphere (over altitudes ;10‐80 km) is provided by detailed intercomparisons of contemporary and historic datasets. These datasets include global meteorological analyses and assimilations, climatologies derived from research satellite measurements, historical reference atmosphere circulation statistics, rocketsonde wind and temperature data, and lidar temperature measurements. The comparisons focus on a few basic circulation statistics (temperatures and zonal winds), with special attention given to tropical variability. Notable differences are found between analyses for temperatures near the tropical tropopause and polar lower stratosphere, temperatures near the global stratopause, and zonal winds throughout the Tropics. Comparisons of historical reference atmosphere and rocketsonde temperatures with more recent global analyses show the influence of decadal-scale cooling of the stratosphere and mesosphere. Detailed comparisons of the tropical semiannual oscillation (SAO) and quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) show large differences in amplitude between analyses; recent data assimilation schemes show the best agreement with equatorial radiosonde, rocket, and satellite data.