Rolf Skjong

Cost-effectiveness assessment of CO2 reducing measures in shipping

International shipping is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and is under mounting pressure to contribute to overall GHG emission reductions. There is an ongoing debate regarding how much the sector could be expected to reduce emissions and how the reduction could be achieved. This paper details a methodology for assessing the cost-effectiveness of technical and operational measures for reducing CO2 emissions from shipping, through the development of an evaluation parameter called the Cost of Averting a Tonne of CO2-eq Heating, CATCH, and decision criterion, against which the evaluation parameter should be evaluated. The methodology is in line with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and with regulatory work on safety and environmental protection issues at the International Maritime Organization (IMO). The results of this study suggest that CATCH <50

Cost-effectiveness criteria for marine oil spill preventive measures

/tonne of CO2-eq should be used as a decision criterion for investment in emission reduction measures for shipping. In total, 13 specific measures for reducing CO2 emissions have been analysed for two selected case ships to illustrate the methodology. Results from this work shows that several measures are cost effective according to the proposed criterion. The results suggest that cost effective reductions for the fleet may well be in the order of 30% for technical measures, and above 50% when including speed reductions. The results of this study show that the cost effectiveness approach for the regulation of shipping emissions is viable and should be pursued in the ongoing regulatory process.

Under-reporting of maritime accidents

Oil tanker accidents resulting in large quantities of oil spills and severe pollution have occurred in the past, leading to major public attention and an international focus on finding solutions for minimising the risks related to such events. This paper proposes a novel approach for evaluating measures for prevention and control of marine oil spills, based on considerations of oil spill risk and cost effectiveness. A cost model that incorporates all costs of a shipping accident has been established and oil tanker spill accidents have been further elaborated as a special case of such accidents. Utilising this model, novel implementation criteria, in terms of the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS), for risk control options aiming at mitigating the environmental risk of accidental oil spills, are proposed. The paper presents a review of previous studies on the costs associated with oil spills from shipping, which is a function of many factors such as location of spill, spill amount, type of oil, etc. However, ships are designed for global trade, transporting different oil qualities. Therefore, globally applicable criteria must average over most of these factors, and the spill amount is the remaining factor that will be used to measure cost effectiveness against. A weighted, global average cleanup cost of USD 16,000/tonne of oil spilt has been calculated, considering the distribution of oil tanker traffic densities. Finally, the criteria are compared with some existing regulations for oil spill prevention, response and compensation (OPA 90).

Determining a Required Energy Efficiency Design Index Level for New Ships based on a Cost-Effectiveness Criterion

The majority of current maritime regulations has been developed following a reactive approach, often as ad-hoc response to serious accidents, and are characterised as being prescriptive leaving limited space for adapting equivalent solutions rather those described in the regulations. On the premise of providing a more proactive approach for the proposal or the evaluation of regulations, the Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) has been introduced. In the context of FSA, the analysis of accident data is considered to be very important for providing potential input on developing more balanced, proactive and cost-effective regulations. However, it has been argued that the validity of historical data may be undermined by uncertainties. This paper is aimed at showing evidence on serious under-reporting in accident databases, which can be considered as the main contributor to questioning the direct and uncritical use of historical data. By analysing the 10-year tanker accident data from the Lloyds Register FairPlay (LRFP) and the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD) for vessels registered in Norway, it is found that the reporting performance has an upper bound of 41% for NMD and 30% for LRFP. Furthermore, based on comparison between LRFP data and self-assessment by Flag States, it is seen that accidents reported by the Flag States are also incomplete.

So Much for Safety

The maritime industry is expected to contribute to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions, and the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is working on possible ways of regulating shippings GHG emissions. One possible instrument is the Energy Efficiency Design Index (EEDI). However, there is no agreement on a mandatory application or how to set the required targets. This article presents an approach where a required index level (I R) can be determined through a cost-effectiveness assessment of the available reduction measures. A decision criterion of 50 USD per tonne CO2-eq. averted is used, based on a 2°C stabilisation level target. For illustration purposes, eleven emission reduction measures are analysed for implementation on a representative ship, and the I R is reached after applying the measures fulfilling the decision criterion. Using the same principles, other regulatory requirements such as a cap on emissions from shipping, e.g. for use in a shipping emissions trading scheme, can be developed. Using a cost-effectiveness approach in setting a I R or determining a cap will avoid prescriptive regulations detailing specific measures to be implemented, and the costs imposed by new requirements may be justified on the basis of the achievable emission reductions and cross-sector potential for achieving a global reduction target.

Implicit Reliability of Ship Structures

The paper demonstrates that a simple method exists, by which easily accessible information aggregated in national statistics can be used to derive acceptance criteria for use in cost effectiveness evaluations. Cost effectiveness assessment is normally used for risks that should be made as low as reasonably practicable. These are risks, which are neither intolerably high nor negligible. Examples of users of such criteria are the national and international regulators that implement safety related regulations and industrial companies that operate in an industrial self-regulation regime and therefore define and implement their own risk control strategies. The criteria are derived by combining societal indicators published by the United Nations development program and national statistics. It is observed that in an unregulated market, individuals invest in their own safety or in the safety of their own family. In the same way as the societal indicators indicate how much the regulator should use on safety, the data on how much individuals spend on safety when the decision is up to them indicate when the regulator should not regulate. The idea is then that when individuals make better use of the available resources there is no reason to regulate. As a last point, when it comes to cost effectiveness, the paper demonstrates that situations may well occur for which a wealthy country should invest in safety and a poor country should not.Copyright

Rational methods for fatigue design and inspection planning of offshore structures

Ship structures must be designed with adequate safety and reliability, and their designs must be acceptable from an environmental and economical point of view. Target reliabilities have to be met in the design rules in order to ensure that certain safety levels are reached in design according to the rules. There are several steps involved in a process of determining target reliabilities in agreement with a risk based approach as recommended by Formal Safety Assessment, IMO (1997, 2001). The study concentrates on the second step of FSA, i.e. calculation of the reliability level inherent in existing rules representing past practice when state-of-the-art models for environment, loads, response and capacity are adopted. Buckling of a ship deck in the extreme sagging conditions is considered. The suggested procedure is illustrated by three examples. The reliability calculations are carried out for the ‘as build’ stiffened deck plate thickness. Uncertainties involved in the suggested analysis procedure and their consequences on implicit reliability are presented. Implementation of the results in the risk analysis is discussed.Copyright

Ship and Offshore Structure Design in Climate Change Perspective

Abstract This paper reviews the current usage of probabilistic fracture mechanics in fatigue assessment of offshore structures and summarizes practical usage of probabilistic load and response analysis models used in conjunction with fracture mechanics models. These models are then used in conjunction with probabilistic models for inspection methods used in the offshore and marine industries to assess the probability of failure, derive optimum inspection plans and derive optimum design considering cost of design, cost of inspection, cost of repair and consequential costs of failure. Comments are made on the status of such reliability based optimization techniques in design and on the need for further work. Some examples of use are demonstrated.

COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HULL GIRDER SAFETY

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Potential Impact of Climate Change on Tanker Design

The paper presents a cost effectiveness assessment of the safety in a design code for oil tankers. The marginal cost to safety improvements is based on code calibration studies for different target reliabilities. This allows basing the actual target reliability indices on risk acceptance criteria derived from cost effectiveness of the marginal change in scantling requirements. This approach is in agreement with the criteria defined in IMO submissions and used in the ongoing IMO coordinated Formal Safety Assessment studies on bulk carriers. The documentation that cost effectiveness criteria may be applied has previously been submitted to IMO. It is concluded that the method works quite well in the examples that are presented, and that the current codes are in close agreement with decision criteria used for other risk control options. As probabilities calculated by structural reliability methods are notional, it is also advantageous to use marginal costs to safety improvement instead of absolute numbers of probabilities as acceptance criterion. It is indicated that a cost effectiveness criterion may replace the current practice of basing target reliabilities on calibration against previous best practices. Although the basic safety philosophy is changed radically, the study does not indicate that the change in criteria would result in much change in design. The advantage of using the suggested approach is the consistency with ongoing FSA development at IMO.Copyright