Per Dannemand Andersen

Policies for the Energy Technology Innovation System (ETIS)

The development and introduction of heat pumps provides an interesting illustration of policy influence and effectiveness in relation to energy technology innovation. Heat pumps have been supported by several countries since the 1970s as a strategy to improve energy efficiency, support energy security, reduce environmental degradation, and combat climate change. Sweden and Switzerland have been essential to the development and commercialization of heat pumps in Europe. In both countries, numerous policy incentives have lined the path of technology and market development. Early policy initiatives were poorly coordinated but supported technology development, entrepreneurial experimentation, knowledge development, and the involvement of important actors in networks and organisations. The market collapse in the mid 1980s could have resulted in a total failure ‐ but did not. The research programmes continued in the 1980s, and a new set of stakeholders formed ‐ both publicly and privately funded researchers, authorities, and institutions ‐ and provided an important platform for further development. In the 1990s and 2000s, Sweden and Switzerland introduced more coordinated and strategic policy incentives for the development of heat pumps. The approaches were flexible and adjusted over time. The policy interventions in both countries supported learning, successful development and diffusion processes, and cost reductions. This assessment of innovation and diffusion policies for heat pump systems can be used to generalise some insights for energy technology innovation policy.

Experience curves for wind power

The objective of this study was to improve the understanding of the use of different experience curves in energy analysis. The study was based on the application of experience curves to wind power systems, but the approach is generic and can be used in other energy technologies. In the study, experience curves for wind power were developed, and it has been demonstrated that different types of experience curves can be developed for one and the same technology. Depending on the system boundaries used, the market perspective used, the time frame, the manufacturers included and the size of the turbines included, the progress ratios of the curves ranged from 83% to 117%, indicating a cost reduction of 0-17% per doubling of produced or installed capacity. We discuss the interpretation of these curves and the most appropriate experience curve for use in energy analysis.

Sensor foresight—technology and market

Abstract A technology foresight study on sensor technology has been carried out in order to enhance a strategic outlook on sensor technology. The conclusions of the sensor technology report are based on: 1) technology mapping and scanning existing forward-looking literature on sensor technology, 2) a number of structured expert workshops with international participants, and 3) an international, internet-based Delphi survey with respondents from 24 countries. The study has analysed six categories of sensors (electromagnetic, mechanical, electrical, magnetic, chemical, nuclear) covering 13 sub-categories and a number of systemic issues. All sources of information (i.e. the literature survey, expert judgements, the questionnaire survey) indicate the same pattern regarding future attractiveness of sensor categories. MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems) and optical sensors, biochemical/biological sensors, and systemic issues are all expected to be the most interesting sensor categories over the next 10 years regarding market volume. Expectations for the future development of biosensors have conflicted. General technological key features are expected to be quite generic: low price, small size, robustness, dispensability, and the ability to be self-calibrating. Future sensors are expected to be integrated systems in multiple objects.

Managing Transdisciplinarity in Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight deals with the long term future and is a transdisciplinary exercise which, among other aims, addresses the prioritization of science and other decision making in science and innovation advisory and funding bodies. This article discusses challenges in strategic foresight in relation to transdisciplinarity based on empirical as well as theoretical work in technological domains. By strategic foresight is meant future oriented, participatory consultation of actors and stakeholders, both within and outside a scientific community. It therefore allows multiple stakeholders to negotiate over how to attain a desirable future. This requires creative thinking from the participants, who need to extend their knowledge into the uncertainty of the future. Equally important is skilled facilitating in order to create a space for dialogue and exploration in a contested territory. Although strategic foresight has now been widely accepted for strategy-making and priority-setting in science and innovation policy, the methodologies underpinning it still need further development. Key findings are the identification of challenges, aspects and issues related to management and facilitation of strategic foresight exercises in complex systemic contexts that transcend science in relation to both the persons and problems involved.

Sources of experience - theoretical considerations and empirical observations from Danish wind energy technology

This paper attempts to establish better understanding of processes within the black box of industrial learning. Through theoretical considerations and empirical observations, this paper also aims at finding the truest and fairest expression of an experience curve diagram. The paper concludes that experience curves based on the cost of produced electricity are more true and fair than those based only on cost of equipment. Furthermore, the paper argues that modern systems of innovation are too complicated to be modelled as linear systems. Policy advice based on experience curve analyses must be accompanied by a more advanced understanding of the whole innovation system and of the roles of the many actors involved.

Managing long-term environmental aspects of wind turbines: a prospective case study

This paper describes a method for mapping and mitigating the negative environmental impacts of wind turbines and provides an analysis of future removal and recycling processes of offshore wind turbines. The time horizon is up to 2050. The method is process-oriented and interactive with respect to the participation of the actors involved in this area. It recognises the dynamic, uncertain and rapidly changing character of wind energy and deals systematically with the future removal and recycling of wind turbines and future wind turbine technologies. The method combines life cycle assessment and technology foresight methods and integrates the perspectives of the present and the future.

Technology foresight on Danish nano‐science and nano‐technology

Purpose – The purpose is to report on a Danish nano‐science and nano‐technology foresight project carried out in 2004.Design/methodology/approach – The foresight process had the following key elements: review of international technology foresight projects on nano‐technology; mapping of Danish nano‐science and nano‐technology; broad internet survey among interested parties; expert reports; workshops related to the expert reports; analysis of the dynamics of innovation within nano‐technology; survey on hazards and environmental and ethical aspects; group interviews with members of the public.Findings – The article reflects on the following methodological issues: domain classification and its influence on conclusions; the use of statements or hypotheses; trustworthiness of the foresight process and its recommendations.Practical implications – Recommendations from the project have already been used in decision‐making on R&D funding and in strategic deliberation in publicly funded institutions conducting R&D. ...

Prospective technology studies with a life cycle perspective

This article describes how life cycle assessment and technology foresight can be brought together to establish a comprehensive and multi-dimensional framework for prospective strategic analysis within new technologies and products. In two research projects, the traditions of life cycle assessment and technology foresight have been put together to analyse how the life cycle approach can help define the content and concepts of a technological system and ensure a comprehensive study with a clear focus. One project focuses on the future development of wind turbine technology; the other addresses genetically modified crops. Both projects applied the life cycle approach as a tool for mapping and scanning of the technological domain. This was also a valuable tool for designation of experts and information sources. Technology foresight methods were used to elucidate drivers of changes, potentials, possibilities and barriers for future development.

Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes

This paper addresses the issue of foresight and strategy processes of national research councils and research programmes. It is based on a study of strategy processes in national research councils and programmes and the challenges faced by their strategy activities. We analysed the strategy processes of two organisations: the Danish Technical Research Council and the Danish Energy Research Programme. We analysed the mechanisms of the strategy processes and studied the actors involved. The actors’ understanding of strategy was also included in the analysis. Based on these analyses we argue that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved if we have a better understanding of the traditions and new challenges faced by theresearch councils. We also argue that a more formal use of foresight elements might improve the legitimacy and impact of the strategic considerations of research councils and research programmes.

Challenges in transdisciplinary technology foresight: Cognition and robotics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report on experiences and reflect on challenges in transdisciplinary technology foresight as exemplified by cognition and robotics research.Design/methodology/approach – The study was conducted as a broad transdisciplinary process involving users and producers of robot technology solutions as well as scientists and other experts in cognition and robotics. Transdisciplinarity is understood as the transcendence of disciplinary modes together with the involvement and participation of non‐scientists in problem formulation and knowledge provision. The study focuses on the possibilities for innovation at the crossroads where robotics and cognition meet.Findings – The paper reflects on the following methodological issues: medium‐ and long‐term research and innovation possibilities and barriers in a transdisciplinary context; the classification and framing of transdisciplinary fields; the facilitation of technology foresight processes; and the trustworthiness of the fores...