Rowan Sutton

The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions

Abstract Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organizations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organizations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements—especially reductions in uncertainty—in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models, we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. O...

Atmospheric GCM Response to Extratropical SST Anomalies: Synthesis and Evaluation*

The advances in our understanding of extratropical atmosphere‐ocean interaction over the past decade and a half are examined, focusing on the atmospheric response to sea surface temperature anomalies. The main goal of the paper is to assess what was learned from general circulation model (GCM) experiments over the recent two decades or so. Observational evidence regarding the nature of the interaction and dynamical theory of atmospheric anomalies forced by surface thermal anomalies is reviewed. Three types of GCM experiments used to address this problem are then examined: models with fixed climatological conditions and idealized, stationary SST anomalies; models with seasonally evolving climatology forced with realistic, time-varying SST anomalies; and models coupled to an interactive ocean. From representative recent studies, it is argued that the extratropical atmosphere does respond to changes in underlying SST although the response is small compared to internal (unforced) variability. Two types of interactions govern the response. One is an eddy-mediated process, in which a baroclinic response to thermal forcing induces and combines with changes in the position or strength of the storm tracks. This process can lead to an equivalent barotropic response that feeds back positively on the ocean mixed layer temperature. The other is a linear, thermodynamic interaction in which an equivalent-barotropic low-frequency atmospheric anomaly forces a change in SST and then experiences reduced surface thermal damping due to the SST adjustment. Both processes contribute to an increase in variance and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric anomalies and, in fact, may act together in the natural system.

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature and climate

The weather at middle latitudes is largely unpredictable more than a week or so in advance, whereas fluctuations in the ocean may be predictable over much longer timescales. If decadal fluctuations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature could be predicted, it might be possible to exploit their influence on the atmosphere to forecast decadal fluctuations in climate. Here we report analyses of shipboard observations that indicate significant decadal predictability of North Atlantic sea surface temperature, arising from the advective propagation of sea-surface-temperature anomalies and the existence of a regular period of 12–14 years in the propagating signals. The same timescale can be identified in a dipole-like pattern of North Atlantic sea-level pressure variability,,. We propose a mechanism which may connect these oceanic and atmospheric fluctuations, possibly as part of a coupled ocean–atmosphere mode of variability. Our results are encouraging for the prospects of forecasting natural fluctuations in the climate of the North Atlantic region several years in advance.

Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialize...

The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO

The influences of a substantial weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the tropical Pacific climate mean state, the annual cycle, and ENSO variability are studied using five different coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In the CGCMs, a substantial weakening of the AMOC is induced by adding freshwater flux forcing in the northern North Atlantic. In response, the well-known surface temperature dipole in the low-latitude Atlantic is established, which reorganizes the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation by increasing the northeasterly trade winds. This leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic and also the eastern tropical Pacific. Because of evaporative fluxes, mixing, and changes in Ekman divergence, a meridional temperature anomaly is generated in the northeastern tropical Pacific, which leads to the development of a meridionally symmetric thermal background state. In four out of five CGCMs this leads to a substantial weakening of the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a subsequent intensification of ENSO variability due to nonlinear interactions. In one of the CGCM simulations, an ENSO intensification occurs as a result of a zonal mean thermocline shoaling. Analysis suggests that the atmospheric circulation changes forced by tropical Atlantic SSTs can easily influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation and hence tropical eastern Pacific climate. Furthermore, it is concluded that the existence of the present-day tropical Pacific cold tongue complex and the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific are partly controlled by the strength of the AMOC. The results may have important implications for the interpretation of global multidecadal variability and paleo-proxy data.

Climate Response to Basin-Scale Warming and Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Abstract Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations—but with larger amplitude—are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August–September–October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circ...

Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Identifying the prime drivers of the twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic Ocean is crucial for predicting how the Atlantic will evolve in the coming decades and the resulting broad impacts on weather and precipitation patterns around the globe. Recently, Booth et al. showed that the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth system configuration (HadGEM2-ES) closely reproduces the observed multidecadal variations of area-averaged North Atlantic sea surface temperature in the twentieth century. The multidecadal variations simulated in HadGEM2-ES are primarily driven by aerosol indirect effects that modifynet surface shortwaveradiation. On the basis of theseresults, Booth et al. concluded that aerosols are a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. However, here it is shown that there are major discrepancies between the HadGEM2-ES simulations and observations in the North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content, in the spatial pattern of multidecadal SST changes within and outside the North Atlantic, and in the subpolar North Atlantic sea surface salinity. These discrepancies may bestronglyinfluenced by, and indeedinlargepart causedby, aerosoleffects. It is alsoshown that theaerosol effects simulated in HadGEM2-ES cannot account for the observed anticorrelation between detrended multidecadal surface and subsurface temperature variations in the tropical North Atlantic. These discrepancies cast considerable doubt on the claim that aerosol forcing drives the bulk of this multidecadal variability.

Multidecadal modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variance by Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures

[1] Observations suggest a possible link between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, with the warm AMO phase being related to weaker ENSO variability. A coupled ocean-atmosphere model is used to investigate this relationship and to elucidate mechanisms responsible for it. Anomalous sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the positive AMO lead to change in the basic state in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This basic state change is associated with a deepened thermocline and reduced vertical stratification of the equatorial Pacific ocean, which in turn leads to weakened ENSO variability. We suggest a role for an atmospheric bridge that rapidly conveys the influence of the Atlantic Ocean to the tropical Pacific. The results suggest a non-local mechanism for changes in ENSO statistics and imply that anomalous Atlantic ocean SSTs can modulate both mean climate and climate variability over the Pacific.

High-resolution stratospheric tracer fields estimated from satellite observations using Lagrangian trajectory calculations

Abstract A technique is introduced by which high-resolution tracer fields may be constructed from low-resolution satellite observations. The technique relies upon the continual cascade of tracer variance from large to small scales and makes use of wind fields generated by a data assimilation scheme. To demonstrate its usefulness, the technique has been applied in a study of isentropic distributions of nitrous oxide in the winter midstratosphere, using measurements made by the Improved Stratospheric and Mesospheric Sounder instrument on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. The results show that the high-resolution fields significantly increase the amount of information that is available from the satellite observations. The fields give insights into the characteristic structure and evolution of tracer distributions at scales that are normally obscured from view. Two results are particularly noteworthy. First, at the interface between low and middle latitudes there is evidence of active mixing. This mixi...

Causes of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid 1990s

AbstractIn the mid-1990s, the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1°C in just 2 yr. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments, it is shown that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, it is inferred that the warming was partly caused by a surge and subsequent decline in the meridional overturning circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. These results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multiannual time scales and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions.