Roy E. Shore

Thyroid Cancer after Exposure to External Radiation: A Pooled Analysis of Seven Studies

The thyroid gland of children is especially vulnerable to the carcinogenic action of ionizing radiation. To provide insights into various modifying influences on risk, seven major studies with organ doses to individual subjects were evaluated. Five cohort studies (atomic bomb survivors, children treated for tinea capitis, two studies of children irradiated for enlarged tonsils, and infants irradiated for an enlarged thymus gland) and two case-control studies (patients with cervical cancer and childhood cancer) were studied. The combined studies include almost 120,000 people (approximately 58,000 exposed to a wide range of doses and 61,000 nonexposed subjects), nearly 700 thyroid cancers and 3,000,000 person years of follow-up. For persons exposed to radiation before age 15 years, linearity best described the dose response, even down to 0.10 Gy. At the highest doses (> 10 Gy), associated with cancer therapy, there appeared to be a decrease or leveling of risk. For childhood exposures, the pooled excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) was 7.7 (95% CI = 2.1, 28.7) and the excess absolute risk per 10(4) PY Gy (EAR/10(4) PY Gy) was 4.4 (95% CI = 1.9, 10.1). The attributable risk percent (AR%) at 1 Gy was 88%. However, these summary estimates were affected strongly by age at exposure even within this limited age range. The ERR was greater (P = 0.07) for females than males, but the findings from the individual studies were not consistent. The EAR was higher among women, reflecting their higher rate of naturally occurring thyroid cancer. The distribution of ERR over time followed neither a simple multiplicative nor an additive pattern in relation to background occurrence. Only two cases were seen within 5 years of exposure. The ERR began to decline about 30 years after exposure but was still elevated at 40 years. Risk also decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure, with little risk apparent after age 20 years. Based on limited data, there was a suggestion that spreading dose over time (from a few days to > 1 year) may lower risk, possibly due to the opportunity for cellular repair mechanisms to operate. The thyroid gland in children has one of the highest risk coefficients of any organ and is the only tissue with convincing evidence for risk about 1.10 Gy.

Radiation Effects on Breast Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis of Eight Cohorts

Abstract Preston, D. L., Mattsson, A., Holmberg, E., Shore, R., Hildreth, N. G. and Boice, J. D., Jr. Radiation Effects on Breast Cancer Risk: A Pooled Analysis of Eight Cohorts. Radiat. Res. 158, 220–235 (2002). Breast cancer incidence rates after radiation exposure in eight large cohorts are described and compared. The nature of the exposures varies appreciably, ranging from a single or a small number of high-dose-rate exposures (Japanese atomic bomb survivors, U.S. acute post-partum mastitis patients, Swedish benign breast disease patients, and U.S. infants with thymic enlargement) to highly fractionated high-dose-rate exposures (two U.S. tuberculosis cohorts) and protracted low-dose-rate exposure (two Swedish skin hemangioma cohorts). There were 1,502 breast cancers among 77,527 women (about 35,000 of whom were exposed) with 1.8 million woman-years of follow-up. The excess risk depends linearly on dose with a downturn at high doses. No simple unified summary model adequately describes the excess risks in all groups. Excess risks for the thymus, tuberculosis, and atomic bomb survivor cohorts have similar temporal patterns, depending on attained age for relative risk models and on both attained age and age at exposure for excess rate models. Excess rates were similar in these cohorts, whereas, related in part to the low breast cancer background rates for Japanese women, the excess relative risk per unit dose in the bomb survivors was four times that in the tuberculosis or thymus cohorts. Excess rates were higher for the mastitis and benign breast disease cohorts. The hemangioma cohorts showed lower excess risks suggesting ameliorating dose-rate effects for protracted low-dose-rate exposures. For comparable ages at exposure (∼0.5 years), the excess risk in the hemangioma cohorts was about one-seventh that in the thymus cohort, whose members received acute high-dose-rate exposures. The results support the linearity of the radiation dose response for breast cancer, highlight the importance of age and age at exposure on the risks, and suggest a similarity in risks for acute and fractionated high-dose-rate exposures with much smaller effects from low-dose-rate protracted exposures. There is also a suggestion that women with some benign breast conditions may be at elevated risk of radiation-associated breast cancer.

Serum insulin-like growth factor-I and breast cancer

Insulin‐like growth factor I (IGF‐I) is a systemic hormone with potent mitogenic and anti‐apoptotic properties, which could influence the proliferative behavior of normal breast cells. Limited epidemiological observations suggest that the hormone may play a role in the etiology of breast cancer, especially at pre‐menopausal ages. In a prospective case‐control study nested within a cohort of New York City women, IGF‐I, IGF‐binding protein 3 (IGFBP‐3) and C peptide were measured in frozen serum samples from 172 pre‐menopausal and 115 post‐menopausal subjects who were subsequently diagnosed with breast cancer. Subjects were eligible if diagnosed 6 months or more after recruitment into the study (7 to 120 months). Cohort members who matched the cases on age, menopausal status, date of blood sampling and day of menstrual cycle at blood collection served as controls. Post‐menopausal breast cancer was not associated with serum IGF‐I, IGFBP‐3 or C‐peptide levels. However, the risk of breast cancer increased with increasing serum concentrations of IGF‐I in pre‐menopausal women. The odds ratio (OR) for the highest quartile of IGF‐I (>256 ng/ml) compared to the lowest (<168 ng/ml) was 1.60 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.91–2.81]. The OR decreased to 1.49 (95% CI 0.80–2.79) after adjustment for IGFBP‐3. In analyses restricted to subjects who were pre‐menopausal at the time of blood sampling and whose cancer was diagnosed before age 50, the top vs. bottom quartile OR increased appreciably to 2.30 (95% CI 1.07–4.94). Adjustment for IGFBP‐3 reduced the OR to 1.90 (95% CI 0.82–4.42). There was no association between pre‐menopausal breast cancer and IGFBP‐3, IGF‐I:IGFBP‐3 ratio or non‐fasting levels of C peptide. Elevated circulating levels of IGF‐I may be an indicator of increased risk of breast cancer occurring before age 50. Int. J. Cancer 88:828–832, 2000.

Radiation-Related Heart Disease: Current Knowledge and Future Prospects

INTRODUCTIONIt has been recognized since the 1960s that the heart may bedamaged by substantial doses of radiation [>30 Gray (Gy)],such as used to occur during mantle radiotherapy for Hodg-kin lymphoma. During the last few years, however, evidencethat radiation-related heart disease (RRHD) can occur fol-lowing doses below 20 Gy has emerged from several inde-pendent sources. Those sources include studies of breastcancer patients who received mean cardiac doses of 3 to 17Gy when given radiotherapy following surgery and studiesof survivors of the atomic bombings of Japan who receiveddoses of up to 4 Gy.At doses above 30 Gy, an increased risk of RRHD can be-comes apparent within a year or two of exposure, and the riskincreases with higher radiotherapy dose, younger age at irra-diation, and the presence of conventional risk factors. Atlower doses, the typical latency period is much longer andis often more than a decade. The nature and magnitude ofthe risk following lower doses is not well characterized,and it is not yet clear whether there is a threshold dose belowwhich there is no risk.The evidence regarding RRHD comes from several differ-ent disciplines. The present review brings together informa-tion from pathology, radiobiology, cardiology, radiationoncology, and epidemiology; it summarizes current knowl-edge, identifies gaps in that knowledge, and outlines somepotential strategies for filling them.CURRENT KNOWLEDGEPathologyThe pathological expressions of RRHD documented fol-lowing therapeutic irradiation can be broadly reduced tofour conditions: pericarditis, pericardial fibrosis, diffusemyocardial fibrosis, and coronary artery disease (CAD)(1, 2). Radiation may also cause valvular disease, althoughtheevidence for this isnotasstrong.None of these conditionsis specific to radiation.Radiation-related pericarditis is characterized by an exu-date of a variable amount of protein-rich fluid within thepericardial sac (pericardial effusion). Rapid accumulationof this fluid can, in rare cases, cause potentially fatal cardiactamponade. Almost invariably, fibrin accumulates on the

Issues and epidemiological evidence regarding radiation-induced thyroid cancer.

The available information on the induction of thyroid cancer in humans by ionizing radiation is summarized and weaknesses or gaps in assessing risk are identified. Issues to be addressed include: average estimates of thyroid cancer risk from external irradiation, the effects of age on thyroid cancer induction, shape of the dose-response curve for acute irradiation, magnitude of risk at low doses, effects of dose fractionation or dose protraction, the relative effectiveness of iodine-131 (131I) in inducing thyroid cancer compared to external radiation, the temporal course of radiogenic thyroid cancer risk, mortality caused by thyroid cancer, host-susceptibility factors for radiogenic thyroid cancer, and biological factors in risk. It is concluded that the most important needs are to obtain more information on thyroid cancer risks following low-level or highly fractionated radiation exposures and following 131I exposure in children.

Radiation exposure and circulatory disease risk: Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivor data, 1950-2003

Objective To investigate the degree to which ionising radiation confers risk of mortality from heart disease and stroke. Design Prospective cohort study with more than 50 years of follow-up. Setting Atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan. Participants 86 611 Life Span Study cohort members with individually estimated radiation doses from 0 to >3 Gy (86% received <0.2 Gy). Main outcome measures Mortality from stroke or heart disease as the underlying cause of death and dose-response relations with atomic bomb radiation. Results About 9600 participants died of stroke and 8400 died of heart disease between 1950 and 2003. For stroke, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 9% (95% confidence interval 1% to 17%, P=0.02) on the basis of a linear dose-response model, but an indication of possible upward curvature suggested relatively little risk at low doses. For heart disease, the estimated excess relative risk per gray was 14% (6% to 23%, P<0.001); a linear model provided the best fit, suggesting excess risk even at lower doses. However, the dose-response effect over the restricted dose range of 0 to 0.5 Gy was not significant. Prospective data on smoking, alcohol intake, education, occupation, obesity, and diabetes had almost no impact on the radiation risk estimates for either stroke or heart disease, and misdiagnosis of cancers as circulatory diseases could not account for the associations seen. Conclusion Doses above 0.5 Gy are associated with an elevated risk of both stroke and heart disease, but the degree of risk at lower doses is unclear. Stroke and heart disease together account for about one third as many radiation associated excess deaths as do cancers among atomic bomb survivors.

Prospective Study of Factors Influencing the Onset of Natural Menopause

Late or early menopause has been implicated in risk of several chronic diseases in women. To study factors influencing the onset of natural menopause, the authors analyzed the follow-up data of 4694 premenopausal women who enrolled in the New York University Women Study at ages 34-61. In an average of 5.4 years of observation, there were 2035 incidences of menopause, with the median age of 51.3 years. Current smokers experienced menopause 0.75 years earlier than never-smokers. Those who smoked more than 10 cigarettes per day had a 40% increase in risk of earlier menopause. In contrast, women who had three or more children experienced menopause 0.86 years later than nulliparous women, and Jewish women, 0.66 years later than Catholic women. There was also a modest increase in the age at menopause with increasing body mass index. This prospective study provides solid epidemiologic evidence that several factors other than cigarette smoking have impact on the onset of natural menopause.

Prospective study of diet and female colorectal cancer: the New York University Women's Health Study.

The relation between diet and female colorectal cancer was analyzed in a prospective study of 14,727 women aged 34-65 years, who were enrolled at mammographic screening clinics in New York and Florida from 1985 to 1991. They were followed through the end of 1994 (average 7.1 yrs) by a combination of direct contact through mail and telephone and record linkages with regional tumor registries, resulting in 100 incident cases of colorectal cancer. There was no overall positive or inverse association of colorectal cancer risk with intakes of total calories, total or subclasses of fat, carbohydrate, or dietary fiber, whereas there was an inverse association with total protein. Among major food groups, there was a progressive decline in risk of colorectal cancer with increasing intake of fish and shellfish (relative risk for 4th vs. 1st quartile = 0.49, 95% confidence interval = 0.27-0.89). A similar inverse association was also observed for consumption of dairy products, and this association was explained mainly by calcium, not by other nutrients, such as fat or protein. The results of the present study indicated that certain dietary components of fish or dairy products may protect against colorectal cancer, whereas the relations with red meat or total fat remained unclear.

Cataracts among Chernobyl Clean-up Workers: Implications Regarding Permissible Eye Exposures

Abstract Worgul, B. V., Kundiyev, Y. I., Sergiyenko, N. M., Chumak, V. V., Vitte, P. M., Medvedovsky, C., Bakhanova, E. V., Junk, A. K., Kyrychenko, O. Y., Musijachenko, N. V., Shylo, S. A., Vitte, O. P., Xu, S., Xue, X. and Shore, R. E. Cataracts among Chernobyl Clean-up Workers: Implications Regarding Permissible Eye Exposures. Radiat. Res. 167, 233–243 (2007). The eyes of a prospective cohort of 8,607 Chernobyl clean-up workers (liquidators) were assessed for cataract at 12 and 14 years after exposure. The prevalence of strictly age-related cataracts was low, as expected (only 3.9% had nuclear cataracts at either examination), since 90% of the cohort was younger than 55 years of age at first examination. However, posterior subcapsular or cortical cataracts characteristic of radiation exposure were present in 25% of the subjects. The data for Stage 1 cataracts, and specifically for posterior subcapsular cataracts, revealed a significant dose response. When various cataract end points were analyzed for dose thresholds, the confidence intervals all excluded values greater than 700 mGy. Linear-quadratic dose–response models yielded mostly linear associations, with weak evidence of upward curvature. The findings do not support the ICRP 60 risk guideline assumption of a 5-Gy threshold for “detectable opacities” from protracted exposures but rather point to a dose–effect threshold of under 1 Gy. Thus, given that cataract is the dose-limiting ocular pathology in current eye risk guidelines, revision of the allowable exposure of the human visual system to ionizing radiation should be considered.

The Risk of Breast Cancer after Irradiation of the Thymus in Infancy

It is well established that exposure to ionizing radiation during or after puberty increases a womans risk for breast cancer, but it is less clear whether exposure to ionizing radiation very early in life is also carcinogenic. We studied the incidence of breast cancer prospectively in a cohort of 1201 women who received x-ray treatment in infancy for an enlarged thymus gland and in their 2469 nonirradiated sisters. After an average of 36 years of follow-up, there were 22 breast cancers in the irradiated group and 12 among their sisters, yielding an adjusted rate ratio of 3.6 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.8 to 7.3). The estimated mean absorbed dose of radiation to the breast was 0.69 Gy. The first breast cancer was diagnosed 28 years after irradiation. The dose-response relation was linear (P less than 0.0001), with a relative risk of 3.48 for 1 Gy of radiation (95 percent confidence interval, 2.1 to 6.2) and an additive excess risk of 5.7 per 10(4) person-years per gray (95 percent confidence interval, 2.9 to 9.5). We conclude that exposure of the female breast to ionizing radiation in infancy increases the risk of breast cancer later in life.