Rulof Burger

Trends in Poverty and Inequality since the Political Transition

Using a constructed data series and another data series based on the All Media and Products surveys (AMPS), this paper explores trends in poverty and income distribution over the post-transition period. To steer clear of an unduly optimistic conclusion, assumptions are chosen that would tend to show the least decline in poverty. Whilst there were no strong trends in poverty for the period 1995 to 2000, both data series show a considerable decline in poverty after 2000, particularly in the period 2002-2004. Poverty dominance testing shows that this decline is independent of the poverty line chosen or whether the poverty headcount, the poverty ratio or the poverty severity ratio are used as measure. We find likely explanations for this strong and robust decline in poverty in the massive expansion of the social grant system as well as possibly in improved job creation in recent years. Whilst the collective income of the poor (using our definition of poverty) was only R27 billion in 2000, the grants (in constant 2000 Rand values) have expanded by R22 billion since. Even if the grants were not well targeted at the poor (and in the past they have been), a large proportion of this spending must have reached the poor, thus leaving little doubt that poverty must have declined substantially. However, there are limits to the expansion of the grant system as a meaNS of poverty alleviation, pointing to the importance of economic growth with job creation for sustaining the decline in poverty The data also shows that there is substantial progress in economic terms amongst some Black, who have managed to join the middle class. This expansion was most rapid at the upper end of the income spectrum – Blacks constituted about half the growth of this segment of the consumer market in the period 1995-2004.

The state of the labour market in South Africa after the first decade of democracy

Abstract While the political transition to democratic rule in South Africa was smooth and rapid, the economic transition has been slow and difficult. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the labour market. Job creation has not matched growing labour supply and the unemployment rate continues to rise. This article attempts to document and identify the key trends in labour force participation, unemployment and employment, so as to better understand the factors that drive the performance of the labour market.

Wage Trends in Post-Apartheid South Africa: Constructing an Earnings Series from Household Survey Data

This paper examines South African wage earnings trends using all the available post-1994 household survey datasets. This allows us to identify and address the sources of data inconsistencies across surveys in order to construct a more comparable earnings time series. Taking account of the inconsistencies in questionnaire design and the presence of outliers, we find that it is possible to construct a fairly stable earnings series for formal sector employees. We find that claims that workers have on average experienced a substantial decrease in their real wage earnings in the post-apartheid era is based on choosing datasets on either side of Statistics South Africa’s changeover from October Household Surveys (OHS) to the more consistent Labour Force Surveys (LFS), which caused a discontinuous and inexplicably large drop in average earnings. The data actually show an increase in real wage earnings in the post-transition period for formal sector employees, and does not provide strong evidence of decreasing wages in the informal economy. The paper also investigates changes in the distribution of earnings, as well as mean earnings trends by population group, gender and skill category.

Teacher Pay in South Africa

The role of teachers in achieving good quality education is universally acknowledged. What is less clear is what incentives are required to attract good teachers to teaching. Incentives, including teachers pay, need to be sufficient yet, in the light of fiscal resource constraints, not excessive. This paper deals with the issue of teacher pay in South Africa before the introduction of the recent Occupation Specific Dispensation (OSD) for teachers, that was intended to offer more attractive lifetime incentives to teachers in order to attract quality teachers. The paper first reviews the literature on teacher pay internationally and for South Africa, before using recent South African household surveys to empirically compare the wage received by teachers to that received by non-teachers with a similar level of education.

The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis.

Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently its total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition will be valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries. This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to construct a retrospective panel to investigate reasons for the decline in fertility. The analysis attributes a large share of the observed fertility decline across birth cohorts to improvements in education levels and the lower prevalence of marriage. However, a considerable segment of the transition is ascribed to unobservables. These may include HIV/AIDS, the increased use of contraceptives and changes in both intra-household relationships and the social role of women.