Russ S. Schumacher

Organization and Environmental Properties of Extreme-Rain-Producing Mesoscale Convective Systems

This study examines the radar-indicated structures and other features of extreme rain events in the United States over a 3-yr period. A rainfall event is defined as “extreme” when the 24-h precipitation total at one or more stations surpasses the 50-yr recurrence interval amount for that location. This definition yields 116 such cases from 1999 to 2001 in the area east of the Rocky Mountains, excluding Florida. Two-kilometer national composite radar reflectivity data are then used to examine the structure and evolution of each extreme rain event. Sixty-five percent of the total number of events are associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). While a wide variety of organizational structures (as indicated by radar reflectivity data) are seen among the MCS cases, two patterns of organization are observed most frequently. The first type has a line, often oriented east–west, with “training” convective elements. It also has a region of adjoining stratiform rain that is displaced to the north of the line. The second type has a back-building or quasi-stationary area of convection that produces a region of stratiform rain downstream. Surface observations and composite analysis of Rapid Update Cycle Version 2 (RUC-2) model data reveal that training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS) systems typically form in a very moist, unstable environment on the cool side of a preexisting slow-moving surface boundary. On the other hand, back-building/quasistationary (BB) MCSs are more dependent on mesoscale and storm-scale processes, particularly lifting provided by storm-generated cold pools, than on preexisting synoptic boundaries.

Characteristics of U.S. Extreme Rain Events during 1999–2003

This study examines the characteristics of a large number of extreme rain events over the eastern two-thirds of the United States. Over a 5-yr period, 184 events are identified where the 24-h precipitation total at one or more stations exceeds the 50-yr recurrence amount for that location. Over the entire region of study, these events are most common in July. In the northern United States, extreme rain events are confined almost exclusively to the warm season; in the southern part of the country, these events are distributed more evenly throughout the year. National composite radar reflectivity data are used to classify each event as a mesoscale convective system (MCS), a synoptic system, or a tropical system, and then to classify the MCS and synoptic events into subclassifications based on their organizational structures. This analysis shows that 66% of all the events and 74% of the warm-season events are associated with MCSs; nearly all of the cool-season events are caused by storms with strong synoptic forcing. Similarly, nearly all of the extreme rain events in the northern part of the country are caused by MCSs; synoptic and tropical systems play a larger role in the South and East. MCS-related events are found to most commonly begin at around 1800 local standard time (LST), produce their peak rainfall between 2100 and 2300 LST, and dissipate or move out of the affected area by 0300 LST.

The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013

AbstractDuring the second week of September 2013, a seasonally uncharacteristic weather pattern stalled over the Rocky Mountain Front Range region of northern Colorado bringing with it copious amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. This feed of moisture was funneled toward the east-facing mountain slopes through a series of mesoscale circulation features, resulting in several days of unusually widespread heavy rainfall over steep mountainous terrain. Catastrophic flooding ensued within several Front Range river systems that washed away highways, destroyed towns, isolated communities, necessitated days of airborne evacuations, and resulted in eight fatalities. The impacts from heavy rainfall and flooding were felt over a broad region of northern Colorado leading to 18 counties being designated as federal disaster areas and resulting in damages exceeding

Mesoscale Processes Contributing to Extreme Rainfall in a Midlatitude Warm-Season Flash Flood*

2 billion (U.S. dollars). This study explores the meteorological and hydrological ingredients...

Predecessor Rain Events ahead of Tropical Cyclones

Abstract Observations and numerical simulations are used to investigate the atmospheric processes that led to extreme rainfall and resultant destructive flash flooding in eastern Missouri on 6–7 May 2000. In this event, a quasi-stationary mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed near a preexisting mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) in a very moist environment that included a strong low-level jet (LLJ). This nocturnal MCS produced in excess of 300 mm of rain in a small area to the southwest of St. Louis, Missouri. Operational model forecasts and simulations using a convective parameterization scheme failed to produce the observed rainfall totals for this event. However, convection-permitting simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model were successful in reproducing the quasi-stationary organization and evolution of this MCS. In both observations and simulations, scattered elevated convective cells were repeatedly initiated 50–75 km upstream before merging into the mature MCS and contribu...

Quasi-Stationary, Extreme-Rain-Producing Convective Systems Associated with Midlevel Cyclonic Circulations

Abstract Twenty-eight predecessor rain events (PREs) that occurred over the United States east of the Rockies during 1995–2008 are examined from a synoptic climatology and case study perspective. PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, with rainfall rates ≥100 mm (24 h)−1, that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC. A distinguishing feature of PREs is that they are sustained by deep tropical moisture that is transported poleward directly from the TC. PREs are high-impact weather events that can often result in significant inland flooding, either from the PRE itself or from the subsequent arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC that falls onto soils already saturated by the PRE. The composite analysis shows that on the synoptic-scale, PREs form in the equatorward jet-entrance region of a 200-hPa je...

Distant Effects of a Recurving Tropical Cyclone on Rainfall in a Midlatitude Convective System: A High-Impact Predecessor Rain Event*

Abstract This study identifies and examines the common characteristics of several nocturnal midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that developed near mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) or cutoff lows. All of these MCSs were organized into convective clusters or lines that exhibited back-building behavior, remained nearly stationary for 6–12 h, and produced locally excessive rainfall (greater than 200 mm in 12 h) that led to substantial flash flooding. Examination of individual events and composite analysis reveals that the MCSs formed in thermodynamic environments characterized by very high relative humidity at low levels, moderate convective available potential energy (CAPE), and very little convective inhibition (CIN). In each case, the presence of a strong low-level jet (LLJ) and weak midlevel winds led to a pronounced reversal of the wind shear vector with height. Most of the MCSs formed without any front or preexisting surface boundary in the vicinity, though weak boundaries were apparent...

Mechanisms for Quasi-Stationary Behavior in Simulated Heavy-Rain-Producing Convective Systems

Abstract Recent research has identified predecessor rain events (PREs), which are mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall that occur ∼1000 km poleward and downshear of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs typically occur 24–36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC, and frequently result in damaging flooding. A distinguishing feature of a PRE is that it is enhanced by a broad region of deep tropical moisture directly associated with the TC that is transported well poleward ahead of the TC. This study will quantify the effects of the tropical moisture from one TC on a record-breaking rain and flood event over the northern Great Plains and southern Great Lakes region on 18–19 August 2007. In this event, which occurred ahead of TC Erin, a southerly stream of deep tropical moisture (precipitable water values >50 mm) moved poleward and intersected a northwest–southeast-oriented quasi-stationary baroclinic zone beneath the equatorward entrance region of an upper-level jet streak. A...

The Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX)

Abstract In this study, idealized numerical simulations are used to identify the processes responsible for initiating, organizing, and maintaining quasi-stationary convective systems that produce locally extreme rainfall amounts. Of particular interest are those convective systems that have been observed to occur near mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) and other midlevel circulations. To simulate the lifting associated with such circulations, a low-level momentum forcing is applied to an initial state that is representative of observed extreme rain events. The initial vertical wind profile includes a sharp reversal of the vertical wind shear with height, indicative of observed low-level jets. Deep moist convection initiates within the region of mesoscale lifting, and the resulting convective system replicates many of the features of observed systems. The low-level thermodynamic environment is nearly saturated, which is not conducive to the production of a strong surface cold pool; yet the convection qui...

The 2015 Plains Elevated Convection at Night Field Project

AbstractThe Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX) was conducted from 15 May to 15 June 2013 in the central United States. MPEX was motivated by the basic question of whether experimental, subsynoptic observations can extend convective-scale predictability and otherwise enhance skill in short-term regional numerical weather prediction.Observational tools for MPEX included the National Science Foundation (NSF)–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Gulfstream V aircraft (GV), which featured the Airborne Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System mini-dropsonde system and a microwave temperature-profiling (MTP) system as well as several ground-based mobile upsonde systems. Basic operations involved two missions per day: an early morning mission with the GV, well upstream of anticipated convective storms, and an afternoon and early evening mission with the mobile sounding units to sample the initiation and upscale feedbacks of the convection.A total of 18 intensive observing periods (IOPs) were compl...