Ryan Kelly

Recent burning of boreal forests exceeds fire regime limits of the past 10,000 years

Wildfire activity in boreal forests is anticipated to increase dramatically, with far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences. Paleorecords are indispensible for elucidating boreal fire regime dynamics under changing climate, because fire return intervals and successional cycles in these ecosystems occur over decadal to centennial timescales. We present charcoal records from 14 lakes in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska, one of the most flammable ecoregions of the boreal forest biome, to infer causes and consequences of fire regime change over the past 10,000 y. Strong correspondence between charcoal-inferred and observational fire records shows the fidelity of sedimentary charcoal records as archives of past fire regimes. Fire frequency and area burned increased ∼6,000–3,000 y ago, probably as a result of elevated landscape flammability associated with increased Picea mariana in the regional vegetation. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; ∼1,000–500 cal B.P.), the period most similar to recent decades, warm and dry climatic conditions resulted in peak biomass burning, but severe fires favored less-flammable deciduous vegetation, such that fire frequency remained relatively stationary. These results suggest that boreal forests can sustain high-severity fire regimes for centuries under warm and dry conditions, with vegetation feedbacks modulating climate–fire linkages. The apparent limit to MCA burning has been surpassed by the regional fire regime of recent decades, which is characterized by exceptionally high fire frequency and biomass burning. This extreme combination suggests a transition to a unique regime of unprecedented fire activity. However, vegetation dynamics similar to feedbacks that occurred during the MCA may stabilize the fire regime, despite additional warming.

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release w ...

A quantitative assessment of a terrestrial biosphere model's data needs across North American biomes

Terrestrial biosphere models are designed to synthesize our current understanding of how ecosystems function, test competing hypotheses of ecosystem function against observations, and predict responses to novel conditions such as those expected under climate change. Reducing uncertainties in such models can improve both basic scientific understanding and our predictive capacity, but rarely are ecosystem models employed in the design of field campaigns. We provide a synthesis of carbon cycle uncertainty analyses conducted using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer ecoinformatics workflow with the Ecosystem Demography model v2. This work is a synthesis of multiple projects, using Bayesian data assimilation techniques to incorporate field data and trait databases across temperate forests, grasslands, agriculture, short rotation forestry, boreal forests, and tundra. We report on a number of data needs that span a wide array of diverse biomes, such as the need for better constraint on growth respiration, mortality, stomatal conductance, and water uptake. We also identify data needs that are biome specific, such as photosynthetic quantum efficiency at high latitudes. We recommend that future data collection efforts balance the bias of past measurements toward aboveground processes in temperate biomes with the sensitivities of different processes as represented by ecosystem models. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

A guide to screening charcoal peaks in macrocharcoal-area records for fire-episode reconstructions

Macroscopic charcoal records can be used to infer spatially explicit reconstructions of past fire history. However, a current deficiency in the charcoal-analysis toolbox has been the lack of a method to consider sampling variability and charcoal-particle area distributions for peak detection with charcoal-area records. We present a screening procedure specific for datasets comprising charcoal numbers and areas to screen the charcoal-area estimates with respect to the count sums. The rationale for screening charcoal-area peaks stems from the observation that although charcoal-area records can be more suitable in a statistical sense for peak detection (e.g. as established by the signal-to-noise index), charcoal-area peaks can be questionable if they are determined by just one or a few larger charcoal particles. Our method begins with a charcoal-area time series analysed by existing methods to identify peaks representing fire episodes. To screen these peaks, the method uses bootstrap resampling of charcoal-particle areas observed in a user-defined subsection of the record around each peak to obtain the range of likely charcoal areas for different counts. Peaks with total area within the likely range of bootstrapped samples (e.g. p > 0.05) are flagged as potentially unreliable, whereas samples with total area significantly greater than expected by chance are deemed robust indicators of past fire events. In an example application of the method to a charcoal record from Lake Brazi, Romania, several peaks failed to pass the screening suggesting that, as for count-based records, unscreened charcoal-area records may include spurious fire episodes and thus potentially underestimate past fire-return intervals.

Nonlinear response of summer temperature to Holocene insolation forcing in Alaska

Regional climate responses to large-scale forcings, such as precessional changes in solar irradiation and increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gases, may be nonlinear as a result of complex interactions among earth system components. Such nonlinear behaviors constitute a major source of climate “surprises” with important socioeconomic and ecological implications. Paleorecords are key for elucidating patterns and mechanisms of nonlinear responses to radiative forcing, but their utility has been greatly limited by the paucity of quantitative temperature reconstructions. Here we present Holocene July temperature reconstructions on the basis of midge analysis of sediment cores from three Alaskan lakes. Results show that summer temperatures during 10,000–5,500 calibrated years (cal) B.P. were generally lower than modern and that peak summer temperatures around 5,000 were followed by a decreasing trend toward the present. These patterns stand in stark contrast with the trend of precessional insolation, which decreased by ∼10% from 10,000 y ago to the present. Cool summers before 5,500 cal B.P. coincided with extensive summer ice cover in the western Arctic Ocean, persistence of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation, predominantly La Niña-like conditions, and variation in the position of the Alaskan treeline. These results illustrate nonlinear responses of summer temperatures to Holocene insolation radiative forcing in the Alaskan sub-Arctic, possibly because of state changes in the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation and associated land–atmosphere–ocean feedbacks.

Climatic and land cover influences on the spatiotemporal dynamics of Holocene boreal fire regimes

Although recent climatic warming has markedly increased fire activity in many biomes, this trend is spatially heterogeneous. Understanding the patterns and controls of this heterogeneity is important for anticipating future fire regime shifts at regional scales and for developing land management policies. To assess climatic and land cover controls on boreal forest fire regimes, we conducted macroscopic-charcoal analysis of sediment cores and GIS analysis of landscape variation in south-central Alaska, USA. Results reveal that fire occurrence was highly variable both spatially and temporally over the past seven millennia. At two of four sites, the lack of distinct charcoal peaks throughout much of this period suggests the absence of large local fires, attributed to abundant water bodies in the surrounding landscape that have likely functioned as firebreaks to limit fire spread. In contrast, distinct charcoal peaks suggest numerous local fires at the other two sites where water bodies are less abundant. In periods of the records where robust charcoal peaks allow identification of local-fire events over the past 7000 years, mean fire return intervals varied widely with a range of 138-453 years. Furthermore, the temporal trajectories of local-fire frequency differed greatly among sites and were statistically independent. Inferred biomass burning and mean summer temperature in the region were not significantly correlated prior to 3000 years ago but became positively related subsequently with varying correlation strengths. Climatic variability associated with the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, along with the expansion of flammable Picea mariana forests, probably have heightened the sensitivity of forest burning to summer temperature variations over the past three millennia. These results elucidate the patterns and controls of boreal fire regime dynamics over a broad range of spatiotemporal scales, and they imply that anthropogenic climatic warming and associated land cover changes, in particular lake drying, will interact to affect boreal forest burning over the coming decades.

Charcoal Reflectance Reveals Early Holocene Boreal Deciduous Forests Burned at High Intensities

Wildfire size, frequency, and severity are increasing in the Alaskan boreal forest in response to climate warming. One of the potential impacts of this changing fire regime is the alteration of successional trajectories, from black spruce to mixed stands dominated by aspen, a vegetation composition not experienced since the early Holocene. Such changes in vegetation composition may consequently alter the intensity of fires, influencing fire feedbacks to the ecosystem. Paleorecords document past wildfire-vegetation dynamics and as such, are imperative for our understanding of how these ecosystems will respond to future climate warming. For the first time, we have used reflectance measurements of macroscopic charcoal particles (>180μm) from an Alaskan lake-sediment record to estimate ancient charring temperatures (termed pyrolysis intensity). We demonstrate that pyrolysis intensity increased markedly from an interval of birch tundra 11 ky ago (mean 1.52%Ro; 485°C), to the expansion of trees on the landscape ∼10.5 ky ago, remaining high to the present (mean 3.54%Ro; 640°C) irrespective of stand composition. Despite differing flammabilities and adaptations to fire, the highest pyrolysis intensities derive from two intervals with distinct vegetation compositions. 1) the expansion of mixed aspen and spruce woodland at 10 cal. kyr BP, and 2) the establishment of black spruce, and the modern boreal forest at 4 cal. kyr BP. Based on our analysis, we infer that predicted expansion of deciduous trees into the boreal forest in the future could lead to high intensity, but low severity fires, potentially moderating future climate-fire feedbacks.

Charcoal reflectance suggests heating duration and fuel moisture affected burn severity in four Alaskan tundra wildfires

Wildfires are anticipated to increase in frequency and extent in the Arctic tundra. In the unprecedented 2010 fire season, 37 tundra fires burned 435 km2 of the Noatak National Preserve, Alaska. We sampled sixteen soil monoliths from four of these burned areas, which based on microsite burn severity assessments ranged from scorched to moderate–high. Surface charcoals were later studied using reflectance microscopy, as charcoal reflectance may semiquantitatively indicate the duration of heating experienced by a given fuel. Here, the combination of high fuel moisture contents and rapid consumption of fine tussock fuels likely resulted in short fire residence times across the four burned areas, giving an overall low median charcoal reflectance for the entire assemblage (0.82%Romedian). The low charcoal reflectances of the ground fuels provide further evidence for limited heat transference to the organic soil (bryophytes, 0.57 ± 0.17%Romedian; duff and litter, 0.83 ± 0.33%Romedian). The range of observed microsite burn severities is therefore likely attributable to localised variations in above- and ground fuel moisture contents resulting in heterogeneously burned fuels. Consequently, charcoal reflectance is able to provide additional information about current fire behaviour that may improve our understanding of tussock–shrub tundra fires in the future.