Sarah E. Diamond

Synthetic analyses of phenotypic selection in natural populations: lessons, limitations and future directions

There are now thousands of estimates of phenotypic selection in natural populations, resulting in multiple synthetic reviews of these data. Here we consider several major lessons and limitations emerging from these syntheses, and how they may guide future studies of selection in the wild. First, we review past analyses of the patterns of directional selection. We present new meta-analyses that confirm differences in the direction and magnitude of selection for different types of traits and fitness components. Second, we describe patterns of temporal and spatial variation in directional selection, and their implications for cumulative selection and directional evolution. Meta-analyses suggest that sampling error contributes importantly to observed temporal variation in selection, and indicate that evidence for frequent temporal changes in the direction of selection in natural populations is limited. Third, we review the apparent lack of evidence for widespread stabilizing selection, and discuss biological and methodological explanations for this pattern. Finally, we describe how sampling error, statistical biases, choice of traits, fitness measures and selection metrics, environmental covariance and other factors may limit the inferences we can draw from analyses of selection coefficients. Current standardized selection metrics based on simple parametric statistical models may be inadequate for understanding patterns of non-linear selection and complex fitness surfaces. We highlight three promising areas for expanding our understanding of selection in the wild: (1) field studies of stabilizing selection, selection on physiological and behavioral traits, and the ecological causes of selection; (2) new statistical models and methods that connect phenotypic variation to population demography and selection; and (3) availability of the underlying individual-level data sets from past and future selection studies, which will allow comprehensive modeling of selection and fitness variation within and across systems, rather than meta-analyses of standardized selection metrics.

Phenotypic Selection in Natural Populations: What Limits Directional Selection?

Studies of phenotypic selection document directional selection in many natural populations. What factors reduce total directional selection and the cumulative evolutionary responses to selection? We combine two data sets for phenotypic selection, representing more than 4,600 distinct estimates of selection from 143 studies, to evaluate the potential roles of fitness trade-offs, indirect (correlated) selection, temporally varying selection, and stabilizing selection for reducing net directional selection and cumulative responses to selection. We detected little evidence that trade-offs among different fitness components reduced total directional selection in most study systems. Comparisons of selection gradients and selection differentials suggest that correlated selection frequently reduced total selection on size but not on other types of traits. The direction of selection on a trait often changes over time in many temporally replicated studies, but these fluctuations have limited impact in reducing cumulative directional selection in most study systems. Analyses of quadratic selection gradients indicated stabilizing selection on body size in at least some studies but provided little evidence that stabilizing selection is more common than disruptive selection for most traits or study systems. Our analyses provide little evidence that fitness trade-offs, correlated selection, or stabilizing selection strongly constrains the directional selection reported for most quantitative traits.

Heat stress and the fitness consequences of climate change for terrestrial ectotherms

Summary Climate change will increase both average temperatures and extreme summer temperatures. Analyses of the fitness consequences of climate change have generally omitted negative fitness and population declines associated with heat stress. Here, we examine how seasonal and interannual temperature variability will impact fitness shifts of ectotherms from the past (1961–1990) to future (2071–2100), by modelling thermal performance curves (TPCs) for insect species across latitudes. In temperate regions, climate change increased the length of the growing season (increasing fitness) and increased the frequency of heat stress (decreasing fitness). Consequently, species at mid-latitudes (20–40°) showed pronounced but heterogeneous responses to climate change. Fitness decreases for these species were accompanied by greater interannual variation in fitness. An alternative TPC model and a larger data set gave qualitatively similar results. How close maximum summer temperatures are to the critical thermal maximum of a species – the thermal buffer – is a good predictor of the change in mean fitness expected under climate change. Thermal buffers will decrease to near or below zero by 2100 for many tropical and mid-latitude species. Our forecasts suggest that mid-latitude species will be particularly susceptible to heat stress associated with climate change due to temperature variation.

The spatial patterns of directional phenotypic selection.

Local adaptation, adaptive population divergence and speciation are often expected to result from populations evolving in response to spatial variation in selection. Yet, we lack a comprehensive understanding of the major features that characterise the spatial patterns of selection, namely the extent of variation among populations in the strength and direction of selection. Here, we analyse a data set of spatially replicated studies of directional phenotypic selection from natural populations. The data set includes 60 studies, consisting of 3937 estimates of selection across an average of five populations. We performed meta-analyses to explore features characterising spatial variation in directional selection. We found that selection tends to vary mainly in strength and less in direction among populations. Although differences in the direction of selection occur among populations they do so where selection is often weakest, which may limit the potential for ongoing adaptive population divergence. Overall, we also found that spatial variation in selection appears comparable to temporal (annual) variation in selection within populations; however, several deficiencies in available data currently complicate this comparison. We discuss future research needs to further advance our understanding of spatial variation in selection.

Environmental dependence of thermal reaction norms: Host plant quality can reverse the temperature-size rule

The temperature‐size rule, a form of phenotypic plasticity in which decreased temperature increases final size, is one of the most widespread patterns in biology, particularly for ectotherms. Identifying the environmental conditions in which this pattern is reversed is key to understanding the generality of the rule. We use wild and domesticated populations of the tobacco hornworm Manduca sexta and the natural host plants of this species to explore the consequences of resource quality for the temperature‐size rule. Manduca sexta reared on a high‐quality host, tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum), followed the temperature‐size rule, with larger final sizes at lower temperatures. In contrast, M. sexta reared on a low‐quality host, devil’s claw (Proboscidea louisianica), showed the reverse response. Wild and domesticated M. sexta exhibited qualitatively similar responses. Survival, growth and development rates, fecundity, and final size decreased with decreasing temperature in M. sexta reared on devil’s claw. We propose that the reversal of the temperature‐size rule results from the stressful combination of low temperatures and low dietary quality. Such reversals may impact seasonal and geographic patterns of host use in Manduca and other systems. Our results suggest that the temperature‐size rule occurs for a restricted range of nonstressful environmental conditions, limiting the robustness of this widespread pattern of phenotypic plasticity.

EVOLUTION IN A CONSTANT ENVIRONMENT: THERMAL FLUCTUATIONS AND THERMAL SENSITIVITY OF LABORATORY AND FIELD POPULATIONS OF MANDUCA SEXTA

Adaptation to temporal variation in environmental conditions is widespread. Whether evolution in a constant environment alters adaptation to temporal variation is relatively unexplored. We examine how constant and diurnally fluctuating temperature conditions affect life-history traits in two populations of the tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta: a field population that routinely experiences fluctuating temperatures; and a laboratory population (derived from this field population in the 1960s) maintained at a constant temperature for more than 250 generations. Our experiments demonstrate that diurnal fluctuations significantly alter body size and development time in both populations, and confirm that these populations differ in their responses to a mean temperature. However, we found no evidence for population divergence in responses to diurnal temperature fluctuations. We suggest that mean and extreme temperatures may act as more potent selective forces on thermal reaction norms than temperature variation per se.

Evolutionary Change in Continuous Reaction Norms

Understanding the evolution of reaction norms remains a major challenge in ecology and evolution. Investigating evolutionary divergence in reaction norm shapes between populations and closely related species is one approach to providing insights. Here we use a meta-analytic approach to compare divergence in reaction norms of closely related species or populations of animals and plants across types of traits and environments. We quantified mean-standardized differences in overall trait means (Offset) and reaction norm shape (including both Slope and Curvature). These analyses revealed that differences in shape (Slope and Curvature together) were generally greater than differences in Offset. Additionally, differences in Curvature were generally greater than differences in Slope. The type of taxon contrast (species vs. population), trait, organism, and the type and novelty of environments all contributed to the best-fitting models, especially for Offset, Curvature, and the total differences (Total) between reaction norms. Congeneric species had greater differences in reaction norms than populations, and novel environmental conditions increased the differences in reaction norms between populations or species. These results show that evolutionary divergence of curvature is common and should be considered an important aspect of plasticity, together with slope. Biological details about traits and environments, including cryptic variation expressed in novel environmental conditions, may be critical to understanding how reaction norms evolve in novel and rapidly changing environments.

Foraging by forest ants under experimental climatic warming: a test at two sites

Climatic warming is altering the behavior of individuals and the composition of communities. However, recent studies have shown that the impact of warming on ectotherms varies geographically: species at warmer sites where environmental temperatures are closer to their upper critical thermal limits are more likely to be negatively impacted by warming than are species inhabiting relatively cooler sites. We used a large-scale experimental temperature manipulation to warm intact forest ant assemblages in the field and examine the impacts of chronic warming on foraging at a southern (North Carolina) and northern (Massachusetts) site in eastern North America. We examined the influence of temperature on the abundance and recruitment of foragers as well as the number of different species observed foraging. Finally, we examined the relationship between the mean temperature at which a species was found foraging and the critical thermal maximum temperature of that species, relating functional traits to behavior. We found that forager abundance and richness were related to the experimental increase in temperature at the southern site, but not the northern site. Additionally, individual species responded differently to temperature: some species foraged more under warmer conditions, whereas others foraged less. Importantly, these species-specific responses were related to functional traits of species (at least at the Duke Forest site). Species with higher critical thermal maxima had greater forager densities at higher temperatures than did species with lower critical thermal maxima. Our results indicate that while climatic warming may alter patterns of foraging activity in predictable ways, these shifts vary among species and between sites. More southerly sites and species with lower critical thermal maxima are likely to be at greater risk to ongoing climatic warming.

Host plant quality, selection history and trade-offs shape the immune responses of Manduca sexta

Immune defences are an important component of fitness. Yet susceptibility to pathogens is common, suggesting the presence of ecological and evolutionary limitations on immune defences. Here, we use structural equation modelling to quantify the direct effects of resource quality and selection history, and their indirect effects mediated via body condition prior to an immune challenge on encapsulation and melanization immune defences in the tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta. We also investigate allocation trade-offs among immune defences and growth rate following an immune challenge. We found considerable variation in the magnitude and direction of the direct effects of resource quality and selection history on immune defences and their indirect effects mediated via body condition and allocation trade-offs. Greater resource quality and evolutionary exposure to pathogens had positive direct effects on encapsulation and melanization. The indirect effect of resource quality on encapsulation mediated via body condition was substantial, whereas indirect effects on melanization were negligible. Individuals in better condition prior to the immune challenge had greater encapsulation; however, following the immune challenge, greater encapsulation traded off with slower growth rate. Our study demonstrates the importance of experimentally and analytically disentangling the relative contributions of direct and indirect effects to understand variation in immune defences.

Mycangia of Ambrosia Beetles Host Communities of Bacteria

The research field of animal and plant symbioses is advancing from studying interactions between two species to whole communities of associates. High-throughput sequencing of microbial communities supports multiplexed sampling for statistically robust tests of hypotheses about symbiotic associations. We focus on ambrosia beetles, the increasingly damaging insects primarily associated with fungal symbionts, which have also been reported to support bacteria. To analyze the diversity, composition, and specificity of the beetles’ prokaryotic associates, we combine global sampling, insect anatomy, 454 sequencing of bacterial rDNA, and multivariate statistics to analyze prokaryotic communities in ambrosia beetle mycangia, organs mostly known for transporting symbiotic fungi. We analyze six beetle species that represent three types of mycangia and include several globally distributed species, some with major economic importance (Dendroctonus frontalis, Xyleborus affinis, Xyleborus bispinatus–ferrugineus, Xyleborus glabratus, Xylosandrus crassiusculus, and Xylosandrus germanus). Ninety-six beetle mycangia yielded 1,546 bacterial phylotypes. Several phylotypes appear to form the core microbiome of the mycangium. Three Mycoplasma (originally thought restricted to vertebrates), two Burkholderiales, and two Pseudomonadales are repeatedly present worldwide in multiple beetle species. However, no bacterial phylotypes were universally present, suggesting that ambrosia beetles are not obligately dependent on bacterial symbionts. The composition of bacterial communities is structured by the host beetle species more than by the locality of origin, which suggests that more bacteria are vertically transmitted than acquired from the environment. The invasive X. glabratus and the globally distributed X. crassiusculus have unique sets of bacteria, different from species native to North America. We conclude that the mycangium hosts in multiple vertically transmitted bacteria such as Mycoplasma, most of which are likely facultative commensals or parasites.