Sarah Nicholls

Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality

Tourism is a climate-dependent industry, and many destinations owe their popularity to their pleasant climates during traditional holiday seasons. This article explores the potential implications of climate change for global tourism, with special emphasis on seasonality. Combination of two climate change scenarios with the Tourism Climatic Index reveals that the locations of climatically ideal tourism conditions are likely to shift poleward under projected climate change. Whereas destinations such as the Mediterranean may see shifts in their peak seasons from summer months to current shoulder periods, regions in higher latitudes are likely to experience a lengthening of their summer seasons. The effects of these changes will depend greatly on the flexibility demonstrated by institutions and tourists as they react to climate change, with substantial implications for both spatial and temporal redistribution of tourism activities. The reader is referred to http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210- journal.pdf to view the full series of color maps accompanying these analyses.

Measuring the accessibility and equity of public parks: a case study using GIS.

Geographic information systems (GIS) can provide leisure service agencies with numerous opportunities to enhance the planning and management of their facilities. This paper demonstrates one such application, to the measurement of levels of accessibility and distributional equity offered by a system of public parks. The methods proposed are relatively simple; nevertheless, they do offer substantial improvements upon those previously utilized by leisure service providers. They facilitate identification of poorly served areas and populations, and suggest where new facilities might best be sited so as to maximize access and equity. These methods are illustrated by a case study of the park system in Bryan, Texas. Many other applications of GIS to leisure service provision are available, several of which are briefly discussed. Together, they could enable agencies to function more effectively and, ultimately, to provide better levels of service to the public.

Impact of Weather on Downhill Ski Lift Ticket Sales

Skiing heavily relies on specific weather and environmental conditions to make participation both feasible and enjoyable. The lack of published research on the relationships among ski activity, weather, and climate is, therefore, surprising, especially in light of mounting evidence regarding climate change. The analyses of the influence of daily weather variations on daily ski lift ticket sales at two Michigan ski resorts presented here appear to be the first of their kind. Results suggest that weather variables such as minimum and maximum temperature, snow depth, and wind chill do indeed have a statistically significant impact on downhill ski lift ticket sales. The regression models developed could be used by outdoor recreation and tourism providers for both short-term decision making and longer-term planning and management activities, in particular those involving consideration of climate change and potential adaptation strategies.

The impact of greenways on property values: Evidence from Austin, Texas

The effect of greenways on surrounding residential property values remains somewhat of an unknown quantity. Though several studies have ascertained that nearby residents tend to view greenways as positive or neutral amenities that increase or have no discernible impact on property values and saleability, these results are mostly based on anecdote rather than actual market data. Using the hedonic pricing method, this study demonstrates that greenways may indeed have significant positive impacts on proximate properties’ sales prices. Adjacency to a greenbelt produced significant property value premiums in two of three neighborhoods. Physical access to a greenbelt had a significant, positive impact in one case, but was insignificant in two others. No negative greenway impacts were recorded.

Going green: The adoption of environmental initiatives in Michigan's lodging sector

The greening of tourism activities continues to receive attention from industry members and academics. This paper assesses familiarity with, perceived benefits of and adoption levels of various environmental initiatives within the accommodation sector in Michigan, USA, based on 217 responses to an online survey of lodging providers. Variations in familiarity with various green schemes, as well as in perceived benefits of the adoption of green business practices, were assessed across property characteristics, including type, ownership, location and size. The existence of a written environmental policy was associated with higher levels of adoption of green practices for less than half of these practices; fewer than anticipated. Interesting differences in the practices adopted between smaller, independent and larger chain properties emerged, with the smaller independents more likely to engage in community-oriented activities and use local and/or organic products. The almost complete implementation of the proper disposal of hazardous waste contrasted with minimal use of keycards to control power use. The findings have implications for the promotion of green initiatives to the lodging sector, particularly in terms of which agency or organization could best deliver this messaging. Potential synergies between the findings and the award-winning tourism marketing campaign, Pure MI, are discussed.

Climate change, tourism and outdoor recreation in Europe

Climate change is now firmly recognized by the majority of the worlds scientists and governments as an issue of extreme concern for the global population. Outdoor recreation and tourism are likely to be impacted directly and indirectly by such change, as both the climate, and the natural environment associated with it, continue to alter. At the same time, however, tourism activity is itself a contributor to the problem of climate change due to its dependency on fossil fuel consumption. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the reader to the relationships between climate change, and outdoor recreation and tourism, in Europe through a review of the relatively limited empirical evidence on this subject to date. Topics discussed include the potential impacts of projected climate change on human health and comfort, possible shifts in preferred destinations, and potential alterations in current patterns of seasonality. Various avenues of future research are also proposed.

Impact of weather variability on golfing activity and implications of climate change.

Despite the obvious influence of weather conditions on golfing activity, the relationships between participation in golf and specific weather variations have rarely been considered in the empirical literature. Given the increasing evidence to support global climate change, quantification of historical relationships between participation and weather conditions is a vital prerequisite to modeling the potential implications of changing weather patterns for participation in outdoor activities such as golf. The purpose of this article was to determine the influence of weather variations on daily golfing activity at three golf courses in Michigan. Multiple regression analysis revealed that variations in maximum temperature and precipitation had statistically significant influences on daily golfing activity in all the models developed. Fluctuations in other variables, including minimum temperature, public holidays, consumer confidence, and the price of gas, also emerged as significant, but not consistently so across all the models. The results presented highlight both the problems and opportunities associated with modeling the relationships between outdoor activity participation and weather conditions. While the models constructed do identify interesting relationships between the variables tested, they also illuminate the difficulties in accounting for the myriad of influences on outdoor activity participation in a quantitative setting. Nevertheless, the analyses should be of immense utility to outdoor recreation and tourism planners and managers for both the short- and long-term planning and management of their enterprises. Models of present-day relationships between activity participation and variability in climatic, economic, and other relevant factors could aid in short-term decisions regarding issues such as purchasing and staffing requirements. When combined with scenarios of future climatic, economic, and other conditions, they could also be used to inform choices regarding the expansion of existing facilities and diversification into new geographic and/or activity domains.

Agent-Based Modeling A Powerful Tool for Tourism Researchers

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a way of representing complex systems of autonomous agents or actors, and of simulating the multiple potential outcomes of these agents’ behaviors and interactions in the form of a range of alternatives or futures. Despite the complexity of the tourism system, and the power and flexibility of ABM to overcome the assumptions such as homogeneity, linearity, equilibrium, and rationality typical of traditional modeling techniques, ABM has received little attention from tourism researchers and practitioners. The purpose of this paper is to introduce ABM to a wider tourism audience. Specifically, the appropriateness of tourism as a phenomenon to be subjected to ABM is established; the power and benefits of ABM as an alternative scientific mechanism are illuminated; the few existing applications of ABM in the tourism arena are summarized; and, a range of potential applications in the areas of tourism planning, development, marketing and management is proposed.

National Tourism Policy and Spatial Patterns of Domestic Tourism in South Korea

The implementation of national tourism policy is manifested in the development of destinations and in patterns of tourism activity. Based on Brenner’s notions of spatial rescaling and spatial selectivity, this study assesses the changing distribution of domestic tourism in South Korea between 1989 and 2011, and relates these changes to the national tourism policies put in place during those years. Spatial statistical techniques including Moran’s global I statistic and local indicators of spatial association are employed. Findings suggest that while domestic tourism activity became less concentrated at the macro level during the study period, at a finer scale it is clear that this deconcentration is nevertheless occurring in a clustered manner. Thus, while the traditional emphasis on Seoul and the southeast appears to have declined, the distribution of tourism’s benefits is still uneven. Observations with regards to future tourism policy and concomitant spatial patterns of development and activity are provided.

Engaging tourism stakeholders in the development of climate change decision-support tools: a case study from Michigan, USA.

Projection of the potential impacts of climate variability and change on tourism destinations is heavily dependent on the ability to fi rst model present-day relationships between tourism activity and weather conditions. However, current understanding of these relationships is often based more on assumption and anecdotal evidence than hard empirical data. In particular, models that function at the same fi ne temporal and spatial scales as variations in weather characteristics typically occur are especially lacking in the literature. This article focuses on the processes and associated challenges underlying the development of Web-based decision-support tools designed to enable tourism enterprises in Michigan to project the potential impacts of climate variability and change on their businesses. An absolutely essential component of this study was the engagement of tourism stakeholders in model development. However, this process was fraught with diffi culties, from industry members� perceptions of the relevance and importance of the issue, to the acquisition of appropriate data and development of useful and comprehensible tools. The models constructed enable tourism stakeholders to more rigorously evaluate the vulnerability of their enterprises to future variability and change in Michigan�s climate, thereby encouraging them to consider suitable adaptation strategies in a more timely and proactive manner.