Sarath K. Guttikunda

The episodic nature of air pollution transport from Asia to North America

We employ the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) global chemistry transport model (GCTM) to address the episodic nature of trans-Pacific pollution. The strongest Asian CO episodes over North America (NA), occurring most frequently between February and May, are often associated with disturbances that entrain pollution over eastern Asia and amplify over the western Pacific Ocean. Using 55 ppb of Asian CO as a criterion for major events, we find that during a typical year three to five Asian pollution events analogous to those observed by Jaffe et al. [1999] are expected in the boundary layer all along the U.S. West Coast between February and May. In contrast to CO, Asia currently has a small impact on the magnitude and variability of background ozone arriving over NA from the west. Direct and indirect Asian contributions to episodic O3 events over the western United States are generally in the 3–10 ppbv range. The two largest total O3 events (>60 ppbv), while having trajectories which pass over Asia, show negligible impact from Asian emissions. However, this may change. A future emission scenario in which Asian NOx emissions increase by a factor of 4 from those in 1990 produces late spring ozone episodes at the surface of California with Asian contributions reaching 40 ppb. Such episodic contributions are certain to exacerbate local NA pollution events, especially in elevated areas more frequently exposed to free tropospheric and more heavily Asian-influenced air.

The contribution of megacities to regional sulfur pollution in Asia

Abstract Asia is undergoing rapid urbanization resulting in increasing air pollution threats in its cities. The contribution of megacities to sulfur emissions and pollution in Asia is studied over a 25-year period (1975–2000) using a multi-layer Lagrangian puff transport model. Asian megacities cover 10% in 2000. Two future emission scenarios are evaluated for 2020—“business as usual (BAU)” and “maximum feasible controls (MAXF)” to establish the range of reductions possible for these cities. The MAXF scenario would result in 2020 S-emissions that are ∼80% lower than those in 2000, at an estimated control cost of US

Health impacts and economic losses assessment of the 2013 severe haze event in Beijing area.

87 billion per year (1995 US

Sulfur deposition in Asia : Seasonal behavior and contributions from various energy sectors

) for all of Asia. An urban scale analysis of sulfur pollution for four megacities—Shanghai, and Chongqing in China; Seoul in South Korea; and Mumbai (formerly Bombay) in India is presented. If pollution levels were allowed to increase under BAU, over 30 million people in these cities alone would be exposed to levels in excess of the WHO guidelines.

Estimates of Health Impacts and Radiative Forcing in Winter Haze in Eastern China through Constraints of Surface PM2.5 Predictions

Haze is a serious air pollution problem in China, especially in Beijing and surrounding areas, affecting visibility, public health and regional climate. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting-Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model was used to simulate PM2.5 (particulate matters with aerodynamic diameter≤2.5 μm) concentrations during the 2013 severe haze event in Beijing, and health impacts and health-related economic losses were calculated based on model results. Compared with surface monitoring data, the model results reflected pollution concentrations accurately (correlation coefficients between simulated and measured PM2.5 were 0.7, 0.4, 0.5 and 0.6 in Beijing, Tianjin, Xianghe and Xinglong stations, respectively). Health impacts assessments show that the PM2.5 concentrations in January might cause 690 (95% confidence interval (CI): (490, 890)) premature deaths, 45,350 (95% CI: (21,640, 57,860)) acute bronchitis and 23,720 (95% CI: (17,090, 29,710)) asthma cases in Beijing area. Results of the economic losses assessments suggest that the haze in January 2013 might lead to 253.8 (95% CI: (170.2, 331.2)) million US

An investigation of potential regional and local source regions affecting fine particulate matter concentrations in Delhi, India

losses, accounting for 0.08% (95% CI: (0.05%, 0.1%)) of the total 2013 annual gross domestic product (GDP) of Beijing.

DEVELOPMENT OF THE EMISSION INVENTORY SYSTEM FOR SUPPORTING TRACE-P AND ACE-ASIA FIELD EXPERIMENTS

Sulfur transport and deposition in Asia, on an annual andseasonal basis, is analyzed using the ATMOS model. Calculationsare performed for two complete years (1990 and 1995). Deposition amounts in excess of 0.5 g S m-2 yr-1 are estimated for large regions in Asia, with values as high as 10 g S m-2 yr-1 in southeastern China. Annual averaged SO2 concentrations in excess of 20 μg SO2 m-3 are calculated for many urban and suburban areas ofeastern China and S. Korea, with an average of 5 μg SO2 m-3 over most of the emitter regions. Sulfur deposition by major source categories is also studied. Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore)receives ∼25% of its sulfur deposition from shipping activities. Sulfur deposition from bio-fuel burning is significant for most of the underdeveloped regions in Asia. Volcanoes are a major source of sulfur emissions in the PacificOcean, Papua New Guinea, Philippines and Southern Japan. Sulfur deposition is shown to vary significantly throughout the year.The monsoons are found to be the largest factor controlling sulfur transport and deposition in the Indian sub-continent andSoutheast Asia. India receives over 35% of its total depositionduring the summer months. In East Asia, sulfur deposition isestimated to be 10% higher during summer and fall than winterand spring. Model results are compared with observations from a number of monitoring networks in Asia and are found to be generally consistent with the limited observations.

Emissions from the Brick Manufacturing Industry

The Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Three-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system is extended to treat the MOSAIC aerosol model in WRF-Chem, and to be capable of assimilating surface PM2.5 concentrations. The coupled GSI-WRF-Chem system is applied to reproduce aerosol levels over China during an extremely polluted winter month, January 2013. After assimilating surface PM2.5 concentrations, the correlation coefficients between observations and model results averaged over the assimilated sites are improved from 0.67 to 0.94. At nonassimilated sites, improvements (higher correlation coefficients and lower mean bias errors (MBE) and root-mean-square errors (RMSE)) are also found in PM2.5, PM10, and AOD predictions. Using the constrained aerosol fields, we estimate that the PM2.5 concentrations in January 2013 might have caused 7550 premature deaths in Jing-Jin-Ji areas, which are 2% higher than the estimates using unconstrained aerosol fields. We also estimate that the daytime monthly mean anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing (ARF) to be -29.9W/m2 at the surface, 27.0W/m2 inside the atmosphere, and -2.9W/m2 at the top of the atmosphere. Our estimates update the previously reported overestimations along Yangtze River region and underestimations in North China. This GSI-WRF-Chem system would also be potentially useful for air quality forecasting in China.

Impact Assessment of Growing Asian Megacity Emissions

In this study, potential regional and local sources influencing PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter >2.5 μm) concentrations in Delhi, India, are identified and their possible impact evaluated through diverse approaches based on study of variability of synoptic and local airflow patterns that transport aerosol concentrations from these emission sources to an urban receptor site in Delhi, India. Trajectory clustering of 72-hr and 48-hr back trajectories simulated at arrival heights of 500 m and 100 m, respectively, every hour for representative years 2008–2010 are used to assess the relative influence of long-distance, regional, and subregional sources on this site. Nonparametric statistical procedures are employed on trajectory clusters to better delineate various distinct regional pollutant source regions. Trajectory clustering and concentration-weighted trajectory (CWT) analyses indicate that regional and subregional PM2.5 emission sources in neighboring country of Pakistan and adjacent states of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh contribute significantly to the total surplus of aerosol concentrations in the Delhi region. Conditional probability function and Bayesian approach used to identify local source regions have established substantial influence from highly urbanized satellite towns located southwest (above 25%) and southeast (above 45%) of receptor location. There is significant seasonal variability in synoptic and local air circulation patterns, which is discerned in variability in seasonal concentrations. Mean of daily averaged PM2.5 concentrations at the Income Tax Office (ITO) receptor site over Delhi at 95% confidence level is highest in winter, ranging between 209 and 185 μg m−3 for the entire study period. The annual variability in air transport pathways is more in winter than in other seasons. Year-to-year variability is present in aerosol concentrations, especially during winter, with standard deviations varying from a minimum of 60 µg m−3 in winter 2009 to a maximum of 109 µg m−3 in winter 2010. Implications: The rapid urban development of Delhi, capital of India, has resulted in increased concentrations of aerosols, which far exceed National Ambient Air Quality Standards making Delhi one of the worst polluted areas. Hence, the region demands development of appropriate emission control strategies that minimize the air quality impacts. This paper addresses the impacts of transboundary air pollutants and local emissions on Delhi’s air quality and reveals the influence of air circulation patterns on aerosol concentrations. These factors must be considered in designing of effective emission reduction strategies in Delhi region.

Transport of Air Pollution from Asia to North America

New emission inventories were developed in support of the Aerosol Characterization Experiments(ACE)-Asia and Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiments work on. We combine our inventories into the ACCESS(AceAsia and Trace-P Modeling and Emission Support System) for more integrated support for these two field studies. To support field experiments and complex atmospheric models such as STEM-II, highly resolved level of spatial, temporal, and speciescomponent detail are needed in emission inventories. To satisfy these requirements we include not only the gaseous pollutants CO, and NMVOC, but particulate pollutants such as Black Carbon, Organic Carbon, and for the study domain of Asia. Our domain was designed to cover – 13°~53° in latitude and 60°~157° in longitude. It includes 22 Asian countries, 60 subregions. 115 active LPSs and 22 volcanos are also included as point sources. The data system includes information on various emission sources, compiled by fuels and by economic sector activities, and natural emission sources such as volcano and forest fires. So, the methodologies for estimating emission are different between anthropogenic and biomass burning from fires. For anthropogenic emission, we use year 2000 emission database from Argonne National Laboratory. The data themselves are administrative–level estimates recently compiled from official national statistics and projections. For spatial allocation of regional emission, we use geographical data from The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Global Emissions Inventory Activity (GEIA), Central