Selcuk Adabag

Atrial Fibrillation and the Risk of Sudden Cardiac Death: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Cardiovascular Health Study

BACKGROUND It is unknown whether atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the general population. This association was examined in 2 population-based cohorts. METHODS In the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we analyzed data from 15 439 participants (baseline age, 45-64 years; 55.2% women; and 26.6% black) from baseline (1987-1989) through December 31, 2001. In the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), we analyzed data from 5479 participants (baseline age, ≥65 years; 58.2% women; and 15.4% black) from baseline (first cohort, 1989-1990; second cohort, 1992-1993) through December 31, 2006. The main outcome was physician-adjudicated SCD, defined as death from a sudden, pulseless condition presumed to be due to a ventricular tachyarrhythmia. The secondary outcome was non-SCD (NSCD), defined as coronary heart disease death not meeting SCD criteria. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between AF and SCD/NSCD, adjusting for baseline demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS In the ARIC Study, 894 AF, 269 SCD, and 233 NSCD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years). The crude incidence rates of SCD were 2.89 per 1000 person-years (with AF) and 1.30 per 1000 person-years (without AF). The multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 3.26 (2.17-4.91) and 2.43 (1.60-3.71), respectively. In the CHS, 1458 AF, 292 SCD, and 581 NSCD events occurred during follow-up (median, 13.1 years). The crude incidence rates of SCD were 12.00 per 1000 person-years (with AF) and 3.82 per 1000 person-years (without AF). The multivariable HRs (95% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 2.14 (1.60-2.87) and 3.10 (2.58-3.72), respectively. The meta-analyzed HRs (95% CIs) of AF for SCD and NSCD were 2.47 (1.95-3.13) and 2.98 (2.52-3.53), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Incident AF is associated with an increased risk of SCD and NSCD in the general population. Additional research to identify predictors of SCD in patients with AF is warranted.

Cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with minimal heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective randomized clinical trials of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) versus implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) in patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF), prolonged QRS interval, and New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class I to II heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND In patients with advanced HF, CRT improves left ventricular (LV) function and reduces mortality and hospitalizations. Recent data suggest that patients with milder HF also benefit from CRT. METHODS A meta-analysis of 5 clinical trials including 4,317 patients with NYHA functional class I/II HF was performed. RESULTS Average age of patients was 65 years, and 80% were male. Frequency of all-cause mortality for CRT versus ICD was 8% versus 11.5% (risk ratio [RR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65 to 0.99, p = 0.04); for HF hospitalization, it was 11.6% versus 18.2% (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.79, p < 0.001). Patients assigned to CRT had a significantly greater improvement in LVEF (+5.9% vs. +2.2%, p < 0.001) and LV volume than ICD patients. Among mildly symptomatic (NYHA functional class II) patients, CRT was associated with significantly lower mortality and HF hospitalization (RR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.64 to 0.83), p < 0.001). In asymptomatic (NYHA functional class I) patients, HF hospitalization risk was lower (RR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.97, p = 0.04) with CRT; however, there was no difference in mortality. Twelve asymptomatic HF patients needed to be treated with CRT to prevent 1 hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS Cardiac resynchronization therapy decreases all-cause mortality, reduces HF hospitalizations, and improves LVEF in NYHA functional class I/II HF patients. Although there was a reduction in HF hospitalization with CRT for asymptomatic (NYHA functional class I) patients, risks versus benefits have to be carefully considered in this subgroup.

Clinical ResearchCardiac Resynchronization TherapyCardiac Resynchronization Therapy in Patients With Minimal Heart Failure: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective randomized clinical trials of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) versus implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) in patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF), prolonged QRS interval, and New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class I to II heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND In patients with advanced HF, CRT improves left ventricular (LV) function and reduces mortality and hospitalizations. Recent data suggest that patients with milder HF also benefit from CRT. METHODS A meta-analysis of 5 clinical trials including 4,317 patients with NYHA functional class I/II HF was performed. RESULTS Average age of patients was 65 years, and 80% were male. Frequency of all-cause mortality for CRT versus ICD was 8% versus 11.5% (risk ratio [RR]: 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.65 to 0.99, p = 0.04); for HF hospitalization, it was 11.6% versus 18.2% (RR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.79, p < 0.001). Patients assigned to CRT had a significantly greater improvement in LVEF (+5.9% vs. +2.2%, p < 0.001) and LV volume than ICD patients. Among mildly symptomatic (NYHA functional class II) patients, CRT was associated with significantly lower mortality and HF hospitalization (RR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.64 to 0.83), p < 0.001). In asymptomatic (NYHA functional class I) patients, HF hospitalization risk was lower (RR: 0.57; 95% CI: 0.34 to 0.97, p = 0.04) with CRT; however, there was no difference in mortality. Twelve asymptomatic HF patients needed to be treated with CRT to prevent 1 hospitalization. CONCLUSIONS Cardiac resynchronization therapy decreases all-cause mortality, reduces HF hospitalizations, and improves LVEF in NYHA functional class I/II HF patients. Although there was a reduction in HF hospitalization with CRT for asymptomatic (NYHA functional class I) patients, risks versus benefits have to be carefully considered in this subgroup.

Comparison of Risk Scores to Estimate Perioperative Mortality in Aortic Valve Replacement Surgery

BACKGROUND Transaortic valve implantation has recently been introduced as an alternative to aortic valve replacement (AVR) for high-risk patients with aortic stenosis. However, accurate assessment of surgical risk is critical for appropriate patient selection. We compared the accuracy of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk score, the European System for Cardiac Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), and the Veterans Administration (VA) risk score in predicting perioperative mortality after AVR. METHODS We included 537 consecutive patients who underwent AVR for severe aortic stenosis at the Minneapolis VA Medical Center between 1997 and 2008. Observed and predicted perioperative (30-day) mortality rates were compared. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and receiver operating characteristic curves were performed to assess the performance of the scores. RESULTS Perioperative mortality rate was 5.9% (n=32). Predicted mortality rates for the EuroSCORE, STS score, and VA score were 15.6%, 3.6%, and 6.7%, respectively (p=0.001). The EuroSCORE overestimated mortality in all patients, most notably among those with ejection fraction less than 35% (49% predicted versus 9% observed). The EuroSCORE had poor calibration (goodness-of-fit test p<0.008), whereas the STS and the VA scores were well calibrated. However, all three scores displayed good discrimination characteristics per the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves: STS score 0.73 (95% confidence interval: 0.69 to 0.77); VA score 0.66 (95% confidence interval: 0.62 to 0.70); and EuroSCORE 0.68 (95% confidence interval: 0.64 to 0.72; p>0.05). CONCLUSIONS The EuroSCORE substantially overestimates perioperative mortality risk in AVR, particularly in patients with low ejection fraction. These data have implications when deciding the appropriate intervention (transaortic valve implantation versus AVR) for high-risk aortic stenosis patients.

Obesity related risk of sudden cardiac death in the atherosclerosis risk in communities study

Objective To examine the association of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist hip ratio (WHR) with sudden cardiac death (SCD) in community dwelling individuals. Methods Data from a multicentre, prospective, cohort study of 14 941 men and women (African American, and white), aged 45–64 years, participating in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study was analysed. Obesity measures were assessed at baseline (1987–1989). SCD was adjudicated by a committee. Results At enrolment mean±SD age of the participants was 54±6 years (55% female; 26% African American). During 12.6±2.5 years of follow-up, 253 SCD occurred (incidence rate 1.34/100 person-years). The association between obesity and SCD differed by smoking status (interaction p≤0.01). In models adjusting for age, sex, race, study centre and education level, SCD risk was positively associated (p<0.001) with BMI, WC and WHR in non-smokers, but not in smokers. WHR was more strongly associated with SCD in non-smokers than was BMI or WC (HR per SD increment (95% CI) 2.00 (1.65 to 2.42); 1.34 (1.15 to 1.56) and 1.49 (1.28 to 1.74), respectively). After adjustment for potential mediators (hypertension, diabetes, lipid profile, prevalent coronary heart disease, heart failure, and LV hypertrophy), non-smokers in the highest WHR category (>0.95 in women; >1.01 in men) had double the risk of SCD (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.19 to 3.46; incidence rate 1.43/1000 person-years) versus those with normal WHR. Conclusions General obesity is associated with increased risk of SCD in middle-aged, non-smoking individuals, mediated by traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Central obesity, however, is independently associated with SCD by pathways that remain to be elucidated.

Sudden cardiac death in heart failure patients with preserved ejection fraction

BACKGROUND Whereas sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk has been recognized in heart failure (HF) patients with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), less is known about SCD risk in HF patients with preserved EF (HFpEF). We examined the incidence and predictors of SCD in HFpEF in a large population sample. METHODS AND RESULTS Medical records of patients discharged with a primary diagnosis of HF from hospitals in Minneapolis-St Paul in 1995 and 2000 were abstracted. HFpEF was defined as EF ≥ 45%. SCD was defined as cardiac arrest or out-of-hospital death due to coronary heart disease (CHD) on death certificates. A total of 2,203 patients (age 70 ± 11 years, 53% male) were included. The 787 patients (36%) with HFpEF were older, more often female and more likely to have hypertension than the 1,416 (64%) with HFrEF. All-cause mortality (52% vs 58%; P = .01) and SCD (6% vs 14%; P < .0001) rates were lower in HFpEF than in HFrEF 5 years after hospital discharge. Age, sex, CHD, and length of index hospitalization were the only independent predictors of SCD in HFpEF. CONCLUSIONS Incidence of SCD in HFpEF is lower than in HFrEF. Present markers of SCD in HFpEF are sparse and insufficient to identify the patient at risk.

Safety and efficacy of the MitraClip® system for severe mitral regurgitation: a systematic review.

The MitraClip® system is a newer percutaneous device that has shown promising results but data on its safety and efficacy in low‐ and high‐surgical risk populations continues to evolve. We performed a systematic review of the published studies reporting the safety and efficacy of MitraClip® implantation for treatment of moderate to severe and severe mitral regurgitation (MR).

Dose dependent effect of statins on postoperative atrial fibrillation after cardiac surgery among patients treated with beta blockers

BackgroundPrevious studies on the effects of Statins in preventing atrial fibrillation (AF) after cardiac surgery have shown conflicting results. Whether statins prevent AF in patients treated with postoperative beta blockers and whether the statin-effect is dose related are unknown.MethodsWe retrospectively studied 1936 consecutive patients who underwent coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) (n = 1493) or valve surgery (n = 443) at the Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Medical Center. All patients were in sinus rhythm before the surgery. Postoperative beta blockers were administered routinely (92% within 24 hours postoperatively).ResultsMean age was 66+10 years and 68% of the patients were taking Statins. Postoperative AF occurred in 588 (30%) patients and led to longer length of stay in the intensive care unit versus those without AF (5.1+7.6 days versus 2.5+2.3 days, p < 0.0001). Patients with a past history of AF had a 5 times higher risk of postoperative AF (odds ratio 5.1; 95% confidence interval 3.4 to 7.7; p < 0.0001). AF occurred in 31% of patients taking statins versus 29% of the others (p = 0.49). In multivariable analysis, statins were not associated with AF (odds ratio (OR) 0.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.7 to 1.2; p = 0.59). However, in a subgroup analysis, the patients treated with Simvastatin >20 mg daily had a 36% reduction in the risk of postoperative AF (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.6; p = 0.03) in comparison to those taking lower dosages.ConclusionAmong cardiac surgery patients treated with postoperative beta blockers Statin treatment reduces the incidence of postoperative AF when used at higher dosages

Development and Validation of a Sudden Cardiac Death Prediction Model for the General Population

Background: Most sudden cardiac death (SCD) events occur in the general population among persons who do not have any prior history of clinical heart disease. We sought to develop a predictive model of SCD among US adults. Methods: We evaluated a series of demographic, clinical, laboratory, electrocardiographic, and echocardiographic measures in participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) (n=13 677) and the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study) (n=4207) who were free of baseline cardiovascular disease. Our initial objective was to derive a SCD prediction model using the ARIC cohort and validate it in CHS. Independent risk factors for SCD were first identified in the ARIC cohort to derive a 10-year risk model of SCD. We compared the prediction of SCD with non-SCD and all-cause mortality in both the derivation and validation cohorts. Furthermore, we evaluated whether the SCD prediction equation was better at predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cardiovascular Disease Pooled Cohort risk equation. Results: There were a total of 345 adjudicated SCD events in our analyses, and the 12 independent risk factors in the ARIC study included age, male sex, black race, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes mellitus, serum potassium, serum albumin, high-density lipoprotein, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and QTc interval. During a 10-year follow-up period, a model combining these risk factors showed good to excellent discrimination for SCD risk (c-statistic 0.820 in ARIC and 0.745 in CHS). The SCD prediction model was slightly better in predicting SCD than the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort risk equations (c-statistic 0.808 in ARIC and 0.743 in CHS). Only the SCD prediction model, however, demonstrated similar and accurate prediction for SCD using both the original, uncalibrated score and the recalibrated equation. Finally, in the echocardiographic subcohort, a left ventricular ejection fraction <50% was present in only 1.1% of participants and did not enhance SCD prediction. Conclusions: Our study is the first to derive and validate a generalizable risk score that provides well-calibrated, absolute risk estimates across different risk strata in an adult population of white and black participants without a clinical diagnosis of cardiovascular disease.

A prediction model for sudden cardiac death in patients with heart failure and preserved ejection fraction

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) accounts for ∼ 25% of all deaths in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). However, strategies to identify HFpEF patients at a higher risk of SCD have not been developed.