Seth C. Britch

Prediction of a Rift Valley fever outbreak

El Niño/Southern Oscillation related climate anomalies were analyzed by using a combination of satellite measurements of elevated sea-surface temperatures and subsequent elevated rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index data. A Rift Valley fever (RVF) risk mapping model using these climate data predicted areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa from December 2006 to May 2007. The predictions were subsequently confirmed by entomological and epidemiological field investigations of virus activity in the areas identified as at risk. Accurate spatial and temporal predictions of disease activity, as it occurred first in southern Somalia and then through much of Kenya before affecting northern Tanzania, provided a 2 to 6 week period of warning for the Horn of Africa that facilitated disease outbreak response and mitigation activities. To our knowledge, this is the first prospective prediction of a RVF outbreak.

Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006-2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies

Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over the RVF endemic areas of Africa. Using satellite measurements of global and regional elevated sea surface temperatures, elevated rainfall, and satellite derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted with lead times of 2-4 months areas where outbreaks of RVF in humans and animals were expected and occurred in the Horn of Africa, Sudan, and Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions were confirmed by entomological field investigations of virus activity and by reported cases of RVF in human and livestock populations. This represents the first series of prospective predictions of RVF outbreaks and provides a baseline for improved early warning, control, response planning, and mitigation into the future.

Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks

Background Recent clusters of outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases (Rift Valley fever and chikungunya) in Africa and parts of the Indian Ocean islands illustrate how interannual climate variability influences the changing risk patterns of disease outbreaks. Although Rift Valley fever outbreaks have been known to follow periods of above-normal rainfall, the timing of the outbreak events has largely been unknown. Similarly, there is inadequate knowledge on climate drivers of chikungunya outbreaks. We analyze a variety of climate and satellite-derived vegetation measurements to explain the coupling between patterns of climate variability and disease outbreaks of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. Methods and Findings We derived a teleconnections map by correlating long-term monthly global precipitation data with the NINO3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly index. This map identifies regional hot-spots where rainfall variability may have an influence on the ecology of vector borne disease. Among the regions are Eastern and Southern Africa where outbreaks of chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004–2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data anomalies to understand associations between specific anomaly patterns in ecological and climate variables and disease outbreak patterns through space and time. From these maps we explored associations among Rift Valley fever disease occurrence locations and cumulative rainfall and vegetation index anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that reported outbreaks of Rift Valley fever occurred after ∼3–4 months of sustained above-normal rainfall and associated green-up in vegetation, conditions ideal for Rift Valley fever mosquito vectors. For chikungunya we explored associations among surface air temperature, precipitation anomalies, and chikungunya outbreak locations. We found that chikungunya outbreaks occurred under conditions of anomalously high temperatures and drought over Eastern Africa. However, in Southeast Asia, chikungunya outbreaks were negatively correlated (p<0.05) with drought conditions, but positively correlated with warmer-than-normal temperatures and rainfall. Conclusions/Significance Extremes in climate conditions forced by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to severe droughts or floods, ideal ecological conditions for disease vectors to emerge, and may result in epizootics and epidemics of Rift Valley fever and chikungunya. However, the immune status of livestock (Rift Valley fever) and human (chikungunya) populations is a factor that is largely unknown but very likely plays a role in the spatial-temporal patterns of these disease outbreaks. As the frequency and severity of extremes in climate increase, the potential for globalization of vectors and disease is likely to accelerate. Understanding the underlying patterns of global and regional climate variability and their impacts on ecological drivers of vector-borne diseases is critical in long-range planning of appropriate disease and disease-vector response, control, and mitigation strategies.

Recent weather extremes and impacts on agricultural production and vector-borne disease outbreak patterns.

We document significant worldwide weather anomalies that affected agriculture and vector-borne disease outbreaks during the 2010–2012 period. We utilized 2000–2012 vegetation index and land surface temperature data from NASAs satellite-based Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to map the magnitude and extent of these anomalies for diverse regions including the continental United States, Russia, East Africa, Southern Africa, and Australia. We demonstrate that shifts in temperature and/or precipitation have significant impacts on vegetation patterns with attendant consequences for agriculture and public health. Weather extremes resulted in excessive rainfall and flooding as well as severe drought, which caused ∼10 to 80% variation in major agricultural commodity production (including wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum) and created exceptional conditions for extensive mosquito-borne disease outbreaks of dengue, Rift Valley fever, Murray Valley encephalitis, and West Nile virus disease. Analysis of MODIS data provided a standardized method for quantifying the extreme weather anomalies observed during this period. Assessments of land surface conditions from satellite-based systems such as MODIS can be a valuable tool in national, regional, and global weather impact determinations.

Rift Valley Fever: An Emerging Mosquito-Borne Disease*

Rift Valley fever (RVF), an emerging mosquito-borne zoonotic infectious viral disease caused by the RVF virus (RVFV) (Bunyaviridae: Phlebovirus), presents significant threats to global public health and agriculture in Africa and the Middle East. RVFV is listed as a select agent with significant potential for international spread and use in bioterrorism. RVFV has caused large, devastating periodic epizootics and epidemics in Africa over the past ∼60 years, with severe economic and nutritional impacts on humans from illness and livestock loss. In the past 15 years alone, RVFV caused tens of thousands of human cases, hundreds of human deaths, and more than 100,000 domestic animal deaths. Cattle, sheep, goats, and camels are particularly susceptible to RVF and serve as amplifying hosts for the virus. This review highlights recent research on RVF, focusing on vectors and their ecology, transmission dynamics, and use of environmental and climate data to predict disease outbreaks. Important directions for future research are also discussed.

Rift Valley Fever Risk Map Model and Seroprevalence in Selected Wild Ungulates and Camels from Kenya

Since the first isolation of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in the 1930s, there have been multiple epizootics and epidemics in animals and humans in sub-Saharan Africa. Prospective climate-based models have recently been developed that flag areas at risk of RVFV transmission in endemic regions based on key environmental indicators that precede Rift Valley fever (RVF) epizootics and epidemics. Although the timing and locations of human case data from the 2006–2007 RVF outbreak in Kenya have been compared to risk zones flagged by the model, seroprevalence of RVF antibodies in wildlife has not yet been analyzed in light of temporal and spatial predictions of RVF activity. Primarily wild ungulate serum samples from periods before, during, and after the 2006–2007 RVF epizootic were analyzed for the presence of RVFV IgM and/or IgG antibody. Results show an increase in RVF seropositivity from samples collected in 2007 (31.8%), compared to antibody prevalence observed from 2000–2006 (3.3%). After the epizootic, average RVF seropositivity diminished to 5% in samples collected from 2008–2009. Overlaying maps of modeled RVF risk assessments with sampling locations indicated positive RVF serology in several species of wild ungulate in or near areas flagged as being at risk for RVF. Our results establish the need to continue and expand sero-surveillance of wildlife species Kenya and elsewhere in the Horn of Africa to further calibrate and improve the RVF risk model, and better understand the dynamics of RVFV transmission.

Potential for Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) From Florida to Transmit Rift Valley Fever Virus

ABSTRACT We evaluated Aedes atlanticus Dyar and Knab, Aedes infirmatus Dyar and Knab, Aedes vexans (Meigen), Anopheles crucians Wiedemann, Coquillettidia perturbans (Walker), Culex nigripalpus Theobald, Mansonia dyari Belkin, Heinemann, and Page, and Psorophora ferox (Von Humboldt) from Florida to determine which of these species should be targeted for control should Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) be detected in North America. Female mosquitoes that had fed on adult hamsters inoculated with RVFV were incubated for 7–21 d at 26°C, then allowed to refeed on susceptible hamsters, and tested to determine infection, dissemination, and transmission rates. We also inoculated mosquitoes intrathoracically, held them for 7 d, and then allowed them to feed on a susceptible hamster to check for a salivary gland barrier. When exposed to hamsters with viremias ≥107.6 plaque-forming units per milliliter of blood, at least some individuals in each of the species tested became infected; however, Cx. nigripalpus, An. crucians, and Ae. infirmatus were essentially incompetent vectors in the laboratory because of either a midgut escape or salivary gland barrier. Each of the other species should be considered as potential vectors and would need to be controlled if RVFV were introduced into an area where they were found. Additional studies need to be conducted with other geographic populations of these species and to determine how environmental factors affect transmission.

Evaluation of ULV and Thermal Fog Mosquito Control Applications in Temperate and Desert Environments

Abstract Ultra-low-volume (ULV) and thermal fog aerosol dispersals of pesticides have been used against mosquitoes and other insects for half a century. Although each spray technology has advantages and disadvantages, only 7 studies have been identified that directly compare their performance in the field. US military personnel currently operating in hot-arid environments are impacted by perpetual nuisance and disease vector insect problems, despite adulticide operations using modern pesticide-delivery equipment such as ULV. None of the identified comparative studies has looked at the relative feasibility and efficacy of ULV and thermal fog equipment against mosquitoes in hot-arid environments. In this study we examine the impact of ULV and thermal fog applications of malathion against caged sentinel mosquitoes in the field in a warm temperate area of Florida, followed by a similar test in a hot-dry desert area of southern California. Patterns of mortality throughout 150 m × 150 m grids of sentinel mosquitoes indicate greater efficacy from the thermal fog application in both environments under suboptimal ambient weather conditions. We discuss the implications of these findings for future military preventive medicine activities and encourage further investigations into the relative merits of the 2 technologies for force health protection.

Global climate anomalies and potential infectious disease risks: 2014-2015.

Background: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that impacts human infectious disease risk worldwide through droughts, floods, and other climate extremes. Throughout summer and fall 2014 and winter 2015, El Niño Watch, issued by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, assessed likely El Niño development during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, persisting into spring 2015. Methods: We identified geographic regions where environmental conditions may increase infectious disease transmission if the predicted El Niño occurs using El Niño indicators (Sea Surface Temperature [SST], Outgoing Longwave Radiation [OLR], and rainfall anomalies) and literature review of El Niño-infectious disease associations. Results: SSTs in the equatorial Pacific and western Indian Oceans were anomalously elevated during August-October 2014, consistent with a developing weak El Niño event. Teleconnections with local climate is evident in global precipitation patterns, with positive OLR anomalies (drier than average conditions) across Indonesia and coastal southeast Asia, and negative anomalies across northern China, the western Indian Ocean, central Asia, north-central and northeast Africa, Mexico/Central America, the southwestern United States, and the northeastern and southwestern tropical Pacific. Persistence of these conditions could produce environmental settings conducive to increased transmission of cholera, dengue, malaria, Rift Valley fever, and other infectious diseases in regional hotspots as during previous El Niño events. Discussion and Conclusions: The current development of weak El Niño conditions may have significant potential implications for global public health in winter 2014-spring 2015. Enhanced surveillance and other preparedness measures in predicted infectious disease hotspots could mitigate health impacts.

Evaluation of Barrier Treatments on Native Vegetation in A Southern California Desert Habitat

Abstract Treating perimeters with residual insecticides for protection from mosquito vectors has shown promise. These barrier treatments are typically evaluated in temperate or tropical areas using abundant vegetation as a substrate. However, there is an emerging interest to develop this technology to protect deployed US troops in extreme desert environments with sparse vegetation. We used a remote desert area in the Coachella Valley, California, to 1) evaluate bifenthrin barrier treatments on native xeric vegetation and 2) compare treatments applied with electrostatic and conventional spray technologies. Through a combination of laboratory bioassays on treated and control vegetation sampled at specific intervals over 63 days, synchronized with field surveillance of mosquitoes, we measured the temporal pattern of bioactivity of bifenthrin barriers under natural hot, dry, and dusty desert conditions. Regardless of spray technology, mosquito catch in treated plots was about 80% lower than the catch in control plots 1 day after treatment. This reduction in mosquito numbers in treated plots declined each week after treatment but remained at about 40% lower than control plots after 28 days. Field data were corroborated by results from bioassays that showed significantly higher mosquito mortality on treated vegetation over controls out to 28 days postspray. We concluded that barrier treatments in desert environments, when implemented as part of a suite of integrated control measures, may offer a significant level of protection from mosquitoes for deployed troops. Given the comparable performance of the tested spray technologies, we discuss considerations for choosing a barrier treatment sprayer for military scenarios.