Shawei He

Water Diversion Conflicts in China: A Hierarchical Perspective

To address China’s large population and uneven distribution of water storage, the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) aims at transferring water from the Yangtze River (Changjiang) Basin to the North China Plain. This project is being implemented over three different routes, referred to as the Eastern, Central, and Western routes, each of which is giving rise to strategic conflicts. In this paper, the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is used to systematically investigate these conflicts and obtain strategic insights into them. The Chinese Central Government is involved in each conflict, together with local decision makers, making the entire conflict hierarchical. The conflict is analyzed both as an overall graph model and as three local conflicts, and the resulting equilibria are compared. The Central Government’s preferences, which can be fully elaborated in the single or overall model, account for the differences in equilibria between the overall model and the three local models. The Central Government, which utilizes different strategies in planning, modifying, and building these routes, may be able to control the overall project as it wishes, thereby reaching separate agreements with the relevant decision makers along each route.

A general hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution with application to greenhouse gas emission disputes between USA and China

The general hierarchical graph model, a significant expansion of the graph model for conflict resolution methodology, is designed to analyze interrelated conflicts with hierarchical structures. In a general hierarchical graph model, there are common decision makers, who take part in all related subconflicts, and local decision makers, who participate in only one subconflict. In this paper, preference structures for decision makers in a hierarchical graph model are established, and theorems are developed that elucidate the relationship between stabilities in the overall (hierarchical) model and stabilities in the component submodels. To illustrate, the hierarchical graph model is applied to greenhouse gas emission disputes between USA and China, where local decision makers in the USA are the two parties in Congress, and local decision makers in China are state-owned energy companies. The stability results suggest potential strategic resolutions of bilateral disputes, and how parties can attain them.

A Basic Hierarchical Graph Model for Conflict Resolution with Application to Water Diversion Conflicts in China

Abstract A basic hierarchical graph model with three decision makers is developed and used to analyze a water diversion conflict in China. This hierarchical graph model combines two component graph models. The theoretical framework of the combined model is constructed using the decision makers, states, moves, and preference structures from the component models. Theorems are developed to relate stable states in the hierarchical model to stable states in local graph models. This novel approach can avoid direct calculation for four hierarchical stabilities. This methodology is applied to a water diversion conflict in China, consisting of conflicts at two locations where it is proposed to divert water from the south to the north of the country. The analytical results show how decision makers can obtain strategic resolutions for the entire conflict.

A price forecast method of commercial aircraft based on I-GM(0,N) model

This paper presents a commercial aircraft price forecast method based on the construction of I-GM(0,N) model. As a modification of conventional GM(0,N), the I-GM(0,N) model is established mainly for Cross sectional data simulation and forecast. After selecting price-affecting factors as well as selecting the Benchmark Ranking Sequence based on Grey Relational Analysis(GRA), the listing prices of some current commercial aircrafts are simulated by I-GM(0,N) model. Then, the price of B767-400ER has been forecasted using I-GM(0,N) with accuracy analysis on forecast result. Proved to have ideal error in simulation and forecast as well as less sensitivity to position of interior forecast point in the sequence, I-GM(0,N) is very effective in the price forecast of newly-designed commercial aircraft with better accuracy in the conceptual design phase.

Matrix Representation of a Basic Hierarchical Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

A basic hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution is proposed to handle a hierarchical conflict with two smaller conflicts as components. The hierarchical model can be represented in matrices and its stabilities calculated. This novel methodology is applied to water diversion conflicts in China, where the two subconflicts are caused by the construction of two local subprojects. Strategic analysis can provide decision makers (DMs) with a comprehensive understanding of a conflict and guidance for action. For basic hierarchical graph model, the matrix approach is an effective and convenient way to represent the model, calculate stability results, and predict equilibria.

A hierarchical approach to study supply chain conflicts between Airbus and Boeing.

Supply chain conflicts between Airbus and Boeing, along with potential suppliers are investigated using a hierarchical approach to obtain the strategic resolutions for all stakeholders. Two giant commercial aircraft makers, Airbus and Boeing, complete for better deals by selecting components for their newly designed aircraft, incurring conflicts due to their rivalry and the clash of interests with suppliers. To control the costs of their next generation aircraft and shorten the production period, both manufacturers demand better deals from potential suppliers with lower prices and more output. A conflict arises among the manufacturers and potential suppliers in the negotiation of the contract in each supply chain. To investigate these conflicts comprehensively, a hierarchical approach is adopted by constructing a Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) with a hierarchical structure. The stakeholders may obtain strategic resolutions according to possible outcomes indicated by stability results. These findings in the hierarchical graph model are further compared to those obtained when each conflict is investigated separately.

Water diversion conflict in Danjiangkou, China

A water diversion conflict in the Danjiangkou area, China, is systematically studied in order to obtain an understanding of its strategic impacts. To address the large population and uneven distribution of water storage in China, the South-North Water Distribution Project (SNWDP) is being constructed to transfer water from the Yangtze River Basin to the North China Plain where there is a severe water shortage. The implementation of this project may not only affect water usage in the Danjiangkou area, which is the largest headwater region in the central route of SNWDP, but also have environmental impacts, resulting in conflict between local communities and the government which initiated this project. To formally investigate this conflict, the methodology of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) is utilized. The equilibrium determined from a stability analysis indicates that the strategy used by the government benefits the residents, but neglects the environmental impacts. To understand these discrepancies, changes are made in the governments preferences to obtain an equilibrium which reflects the governments desire to achieve both economic equality and environmental sustainability.

A hierarchical Graph Model of a two-level carbon emission conflict in China

A two-level carbon emission conflict is investigated using Graph Model for Conflict Resolution. Chinese central government has conflict with local authorities at provincial levels regarding the implementation of new carbon emission reduction policy. As the conflict takes place in multiple regions, the governments at a higher level should form strategies to interact with governments at the lower level. The resolution of this conflict obtained by calculating the stabilities in the corresponding graph model can be used as guidance of actions for each decision maker to follow. The stabilities indicate that the central government should form distinct strategies to deal with provinces with different levels of economic development. Hierarchical graph model can provide decision makers a comprehensive understanding of the carbon emission conflict taking place at different locations.

A Hierarchical Approach to Study Water Diversion Conflicts in China

Water diversion conflicts in China are studied using a hierarchical approach to obtain the strategic resolutions. To address the large population and uneven water distribution in China, the South-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) is being constructed to transfer water from the Yangtze River Basin to the North China Plain where there is a severe water shortage. As the eastern route of the project nears completion, conflicts have arisen along the central and western routes where the Chinese Central Government has to decide how to proceed. To obtain possible resolutions to these conflicts, a hierarchical approach is adopted by which conflicts along the two routes are analyzed separately using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR). The possible outcomes determined indicate that the central project can be fully initiated in spite of opposition, while the western route cannot be resumed without the agreement of the neighboring countries. These findings from the two separate conflicts are compared to those obtained when the two disputes are investigated as one larger conflict.

The study on model of functional zero-sum game and its solution based on grey information

Although profits of players in game cannot be accurately known in advance, such issue can be regarded as the mapping game with certain conditions and variables (time, etc.). Based on the fundamental principles of standard grey intervals, the functional zero-sum game has been established. Thereafter, it is the discussion of absolute strategies, mixed strategies, optimal strategies, and the condition of their existence. Finally, a case study of anti-piracy combat is applied to verify, modify, and validate the theory and approach proposed in this paper.