Sigrid Denver

Cost-Effectiveness of a New Nordic Diet as a Strategy for Health Promotion

Inappropriate diets constitute an important health risk and an increasing environmental burden. Healthy regional diets may contribute to meeting this dual challenge. A palatable, healthy and sustainable New Nordic diet (NND) based on organic products from the Nordic region has been developed. This study assesses whether a large-scale introduction of NND is a cost-effective health promotion strategy by combining an economic model for estimating the utility-maximizing composition of NND, a life cycle assessment model to assess environmental effects of the dietary change, and a health impact model to assess impacts on the disease burden. Consumer expenditure for food and beverages in the NND is about 16% higher than currently, with the largest relative difference in low-income households. Environmental loads from food consumption are 15%–25% lower, and more than 18,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) will be saved per year in Denmark. NND exhibits a cost-effectiveness ratio of about €73,000–94,000 per DALY saved. This cost-effectiveness improves considerably, if the NND’s emphasis on organic and Nordic-origin products is relaxed.

The Stability and Instability of Organic Expenditures in Denmark, Great Britain, and Italy

This article concerns demand for organic foods in 3 European countries: Denmark, Great Britain, and Italy. Based on extensive sets of household panel data we categorize households into 4 groups according to their levels of organic consumption. Importance of sociodemographics is estimated by applying multinomial logit models. In all 3 countries a high organic consumption is mainly found among the more well-situated households in urban areas. Although the relative size of the user groups is fairly stable over time, we find variation in the organic consumption of individual households.

Consumers’ Grouping of Organic and Conventional Food Products—Implications for the Marketing of Organics

A detailed account of the way consumers choose to group different varieties of organic and conventional food produce might have practical implications in terms of improved space management in supermarkets and better targeted promotions of organic products. The results presented here were obtained in a case study using a web-based questionnaire and 849 Danish consumers. The consumers were asked to group the contents of a virtual basket of organic and non-organic fruits and vegetables into two smaller baskets. A significant share of the consumers grouped the food products according to whether or not they were organic. These consumers were found to have significantly higher levels of confidence in the benefits of organic produce, to state significantly higher levels of organic consumption and higher willingness to pay for organoleptic attributes of fresh milk, than consumers who placed fruits in one basket and vegetables in the other.

Consumer preferences for pig welfare – Can the market accommodate more than one level of welfare pork?

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate the market potential of pork labelled to indicate medium and high levels of animal welfare. The paper asks, in particular, whether there is a risk that Danish consumers will abandon high level welfare pork if less expensive products with a medium level of animal welfare became available. The study was based on an online questionnaire with a choice experiment involving 396 Danish respondents. The results indicated that the Danish market could accommodate more than one pork product with a welfare label but the price differential separating medium and high level animal welfare pork will have to be quite narrow. In addition, full willingness-to-pay of consumers who want to buy high level welfare pork cannot be relied upon to incentivise new consumers to buy medium welfare pork. Further, raising brand awareness in the shopping situation and improving consumers understanding of brand attributes for high level welfare brands were found to be vital.

The costs of preventive activities for exotic contagious diseases—A Danish case study of foot and mouth disease and swine fever

The present paper provides an overview of the costs of preventive activities, currently undertaken in Denmark, related to foot and mouth disease (FMD) and classical and African swine fever (SF). Only costs held between outbreaks were included. Costs were divided into public costs and costs paid by the pig and cattle industries, respectively. Data were retrieved from multiple sources such as databases, legal documents, official statistics, yearly reports and expert opinions. As no previous studies have assessed such costs, data collection and estimation procedures were discussed and decided upon in a group of experts from universities, industry, and public authorities. The costs of each preventive activity were related to the type of activity, the number of times the activity was carried out and the share of costs that could be associated with FMD or SF. Uncertainty about parameters was incorporated in the analysis by assuming that the FMD/SF shares of costs as well as total costs for each activity could take on a most likely as well as a minimum and maximum value. A high degree of transparency was prioritized in the cost analysis, which enables reproducibility and easy access to conducting sensitivity analyses. A total of 27 FMD/SF preventive activities were identified. The estimated median (minimum-maximum) of total costs amounted to €32 (18-50) million in 2013. The single most costly FMD/SF related activity, amounting to €8 (5-13) million or 26% of total costs, was a national legal requirement to clean lorries immediately after transportation of live animals. The distribution of costs between stakeholders was estimated to be as follows: pig industry 63%, cattle industry 27%, and the public authorities 10%. Most of the activities focused on reducing the probability of spreading FMD/SF, while only a few activities were directed mainly towards reducing the probability of introduction. Legally required FMD/SF activities (mainly based on EU legislation) accounted for 60% of the activities, while FMD/SF related measures agreed on at sector level and measures implemented due to individual initiatives, such as farmers investment in specially built delivery facilities, each accounted for 20%.

Economic analysis of activities to prevent foot and mouth disease in Denmark

(05/11/2019) Economic analysis of activities to prevent foot and mouth disease in Denmark The latest foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Denmark dates back to 1982-1983. Hence, Denmark has not experienced an FMD outbreak in more than 30 years. Still this disease poses a serious threat either as a risk of introduction and spread in Denmark or as a risk of a ban on Danish export of pigs, pork, cattle, beef and milk products due to an outbreak in another country within the EU. It is estimated that a middle sized outbreak of FMD would cost around € 1 billion. It is evident that even though the probability of introducing FMD is very low the consequences are devastating for the agricultural sector and society because the expected costs are so enormous. Therefore, the industry and the public authority have implemented a number of mitigating and preventive activities. The costs of FMD and swine fever related activities in Denmark in 2013 were estimated to be approximately € 32 million. The purpose of the present study is to estimate how changes in resources allocated to the FMD related activities may affect the costs of an FMD outbreak. Nine alternative scenarios describing changes in the contingency plan were formulated by a group of experts from the livestock industry, universities and public authorities. A modified version of Davis Animal Disease Simulation model (DADS version 0.05) was used to estimate costs of FMD outbreaks in each of these alternative scenarios. The modified and updated version by the technical university of Denmark (DTU) is called DTU-DADS. The model simulations indicate that some changes in risk-reducing activities may significantly affect expected costs of an outbreak while other changes have no effect. Our results suggest that increased efforts in terms of efficiently restricting low-risk contacts between farms, such as non-professional visitors and trucks, might reduce the size and costs of an FMD outbreak. In addition, simulations indicate that current resources allocated to depopulation and surveillance could – but only to some extent – be reduced without affecting the size and costs of an outbreak.