Sílvia Helena Galvão de Miranda

Determinantes do comércio Brasil-China de commodities e produtos industriais: uma aplicação VECM

The main objective of this work is to analyze the variables that determine the bilateral trade between Brazil and China, considering a classification proposed for the agricultural and mineral commodities and processed products. A vector-auto regression model with error correction (VECM) was adopted, through the Bernanke decomposition. The analysis period was from 1995 to 2008. The results indicate a high explanatory power of the income variable on the exports dynamics. In addition, the capacity utilization had consistent coefficients for all models estimated showing that this variable was able to capture correctly the effects of the domestic demand on exports.

Globalisation and Obesity

The WHO has recently announced the global obesity epidemic. An economic model is developed in which globalisation factors generate health externalities and contribute to global obesity growth. The unbalanced panel data set contains the information for 79 countries over the period 1986–2008. Fixed‐effects panel data estimation and quantile regression analysis were used to analyse the data. The fixed‐effects panel model results indicate that the impact of trade openness and the globalisation social index (GSI) on global obesity rates is positive and significant, which is consistent with prior expectations, while surprisingly the foreign direct investments (FDI) has no impact on global obesity. While these results are interesting, they are hiding the effect of globalisation processes across the conditional distribution of the obesity variable. The use of quantile regression uncovered that the impact of the FDI and the GSI on low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates in our sample) is positive and significant, while high quantiles are not affected. Since low and average quantiles (low and average obesity rates) are representative of the less‐ and medium‐developed countries, this result implies that social globalisation and FDI adversely impact obesity in less‐to‐medium developed countries. Trade openness generally has no impact on changes in obesity rates across quantiles.

Trade openness and technical efficiency in Brazilian agriculture

This study is conducted (1) to examine the possible link between increased trade openness and technical efficiency in Brazilian agriculture and (2) to contribute to the scholarly debate in the literature by measuring the impact of trade openness on technical efficiency. The analysis is conducted by using the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) method. Our results indicate large and significant impact of capital, and lesser but significant impact of labour on sectorial output, while expanding farmland would not increase the output. The estimates of trade openness are not statistically significant, indicating that it does not impact technical efficiency. Trade liberalization as an underlying motive for increasing technical efficiency does not exist based on our results. The primary markets for Brazilian agricultural commodities are still the domestic markets, which are still relatively well protected from foreign competition. This implies that domestic producers are not forced to use existing inputs more efficiently given the relative lack of competition domestically and enlarged foreign markets expanding primarily in the booming and large Asian economies.

Transmissão de preços e cointegração no mercado brasileiro de arroz

The aim of this study is to evaluate the dynamics of pricing in the domestic market of paddy rice in order to define the process of prices formation and the adjustment intensity (periods in which the price transmission occurs) among the major producing markets (Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso states). The knowledge of price ratios between markets is important for the development of trading contracts (fixed-term and future contracts) for rice and for the formulation (or reformulation) of public policies for the sector. As a methodological tool, we used the modeling of time series (Auto-Regression Models with Vector Error Correction - VEC) and Granger’s causality. The Granger’s causality test indicated that prices in the Rio Grande do Sul state are important to forecast prices in the Mato Grosso state. The model of transference estimated with an error correction term showed that for each 1% of increase in the growth rate for the RS prices, the growth rate of prices in MT will have, on average, a contemporaneous high of 0.44%, and around 0.17% in the following month.

MIBRA-USP, an interregional applied general equilibrium model for the Brazilian economy

On the external side Brazil has experienced since the beginning of the 1990’s an opening process of its economy in a world environment were there have been a wide process of block formation (European Union, Nafta, Mercosur, etc.), on the internal side the Brazilian Real Plan in 1994 has started a period of relative stabilization in the economy that after more than two decades of high inflation has finally brought it under control. The above factors seem to have contributed to structural changes in Brazilian economy. These structural changes were not equally distributed among the sectors and the regions in the Brazilian economy. As an instrument that can be used to evaluate the impact of the economic policies over the regional development in the Brazilian economy, this work presents an interregional Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model, MIBRA-USP, constructed for the 16 most important sectors in the economy as well as for the 5 Brazilian macro-regions (North, Northeast, Central West, Southeast, and South), calibrated for the year of 1995. This model follows in the tradition of the MONASH-MRF (Multiregional Multisectoral Model of Australian Economy) constructed for the Australian economy and as such the model is solved using the GEMPACK software and their solutions are giving in growth rates. This model is a development over two other previous AGE models, in the Australian tradition, constructed for the Brazilian economy: a) the PAPA model (Guilhoto, 1995) that is a national model with a data base in 1980; and b) the B-MARIA model (Haddad, 1998), an interregional model consisting of 3 regions (North, Northeast, and Rest of the Economy) and calibrated for 1985. The simulations conducted with the MIBRA-USP model were chosen in a way to study how the regions and sectors in the Brazilian economy would react to different sets of economic policies.

Exchange Rate Versus Tariff Policies in Brazil: Results from MIBRA-USP, an Interregional Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Brazilian Economy

Since the beginning of the 1990’s Brazil has been experienced an opening process in the economy, which in turn has caused structural changes in the productive structure. In this work it is made an evaluation of the different impacts caused by changes in the exchange rate and in the tariffs over the Brazilian economy and its 5 macro regions. The study is done through the use of an interregional applied general equilibrium model, the MIBRA-USP. The results show that either a devaluation of the exchange rate or an increase in tariffs can cause a rise in the employment level as well as in the economic activity. However, there are differences between the policies, among which it is called attention for the real consumption of the families that decreases with the exchange rate devaluation and increases with higher tariffs.

How much is a pheromone worth

Pheromone-baited traps have been widely used in integrated pest management programs, but their economic value for growers has never been reported. We analyzed the economic benefits of long-term use of traps baited with the citrus fruit borer Gymnandrosoma aurantianum sex pheromone in Central-Southern Brazil. Our analysis show that from 2001 to 2013 citrus growers avoided accumulated pest losses of 132.7 million to 1.32 billion USD in gross revenues, considering potential crop losses in the range of 5 to 50%. The area analyzed, 56,600 to 79,100 hectares of citrus (20.4 to 29.4 million trees), corresponds to 9.7 to 13.5% of the total area planted with citrus in the state of São Paulo. The data show a benefit-to-cost ratio of US

Determinants of obesity in Brazil: the effects of trade liberalization and socio-economic variables

2,655 to US

Economic Impacts of Huanglongbing Disease in São Paulo State

26,548 per dollar spent on research with estimated yield loss prevented in the range of 5-50%, respectively. This study demonstrates that, in addition to the priceless benefits for the environment, sex pheromones are invaluable tools for growers as their use for monitoring populations allows rational and reduced use of insecticides, a win-win situation.

Biofuel Policies in the EU, US and Brazil Les politiques en matière de biocarburants dans l’Union européenne, aux États‐Unis et au Brésil Politikmaßnahmen zu Biokraftstoffen in der EU, den USA und Brasilien

ABSTRACT This article aims to evaluate a possible relation between increased Brazilian trade openness and increasing observed rates of overweight and obesity during the last 25 years. We develop an economic model where formal trade barriers are eliminated, and resulting sociocultural outcomes such as the adoption of westernized lifestyle in traditional non-western countries prevails, which could imply a health externality. In order to empirically analyse the influence of trade flows on overweight and obesity in Brazil, a balanced fixed-effects panel model has been estimated. Data for the 26 Brazilian states plus the Federal District are run for 1988/1989, 2002 and 2008. We found that an increase in trade openness leads to an increase in overweight and obesity ratios in Brazil. Hence results seem to point that there is a health externality in Brazil due to trade liberalization. However, more consistent evidence may be necessary to convince politicians and policymakers that any interference will be necessary to correct this externality.