Simon A. Müller

Oceanic sources, sinks, and transport of atmospheric CO2

We synthesize estimates of the contemporary net air-sea CO2 flux on the basis of an inversion of interior ocean carbon observations using a suite of 10 ocean general circulation models (Mikaloff Fletcher et al., 2006, 2007) and compare them to estimates based on a new climatology of the air-sea difference of the partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2008). These two independent flux estimates reveal a consistent description of the regional distribution of annual mean sources and sinks of atmospheric CO2 for the decade of the 1990s and the early 2000s with differences at the regional level of generally less than 0.1 Pg C a−1. This distribution is characterized by outgassing in the tropics, uptake in midlatitudes, and comparatively small fluxes in thehigh latitudes. Both estimates point toward a small (∼ −0.3 Pg C a−1) contemporary CO2 sink in the Southern Ocean (south of 44°S), a result of the near cancellation between a substantial outgassing of natural CO2 and a strong uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A notable exception in the generally good agreement between the two estimates exists within the Southern Ocean: the ocean inversion suggests a relatively uniform uptake, while the pCO2-based estimate suggests strong uptake in the region between 58°S and 44°S, and a source in the region south of 58°S. Globally and for a nominal period between 1995 and 2000, the contemporary net air-sea flux of CO2 is estimated to be −1.7 ± 0.4 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.4 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology), respectively, consisting of an outgassing flux of river-derived carbon of ∼+0.5 Pg C a−1, and an uptake flux of anthropogenic carbon of −2.2 ± 0.3 Pg C a−1 (inversion) and −1.9 ± 0.7 Pg C a−1 (pCO2-climatology). The two flux estimates also imply a consistent description of the contemporary meridional transport of carbon with southward ocean transport throughout most of the Atlantic basin, and strong equatorward convergence in the Indo-Pacific basins. Both transport estimates suggest a small hemispheric asymmetry with a southward transport of between −0.2 and −0.3 Pg C a−1 across the equator. While the convergence of these two independent estimates is encouraging and suggests that it is now possible to provide relatively tight constraints for the net air-sea CO2 fluxes at the regional basis, both studies are limited by their lack of consideration of long-term changes in the ocean carbon cycle, such as the recent possible stalling in the expected growth of the Southern Ocean carbon sink.

Inverse estimates of anthropogenic CO2 uptake, transport, and storage by the ocean

deviation of the models weighted by a CFC-based model skill score, which reduces the error range and emphasizes those models that have been shown to reproduce observed tracer concentrations most accurately. The greatest anthropogenic CO2 uptake occurs in the Southern Ocean and in the tropics. The flux estimates imply vigorous northward transport in the Southern Hemisphere, northward cross-equatorial transport, and equatorward transport at high northern latitudes. Compared with forward simulations, we find substantially more uptake in the Southern Ocean, less uptake in the Pacific Ocean, and less global uptake. The large-scale spatial pattern of the estimated flux is generally insensitive to possible biases in the data and the models employed. However, the global uptake scales approximately linearly with changes in the global anthropogenic CO2 inventory. Considerable uncertainties remain in some regions, particularly the Southern Ocean.

Water Mass Distribution and Ventilation Time Scales in a Cost-Efficient, Three-Dimensional Ocean Model

A cost-efficient, seasonally forced three-dimensional frictional geostrophic balance ocean model (Bern3D) has been developed that features isopycnal diffusion and Gent–McWilliams transport parameterization, 32 depth layers, and an implicit numerical scheme for the vertical diffusion. It has been tuned toward observed chlorofluorocarbon (CFC-11) inventories and deep ocean radiocarbon signatures to reproduce the ventilation time scales of the thermocline and the deep ocean. Model results are consistent with the observed large-scale distributions of temperature, salinity, natural and bomb-produced radiocarbon, CFC-11, anthropogenic carbon, 39 Ar/Ar, and estimates of the meridional heat transport. Root-mean-square errors for the temperature and salinity fields are 1 K and 0.2 psu, comparable to results from the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. Global inventories of CFC-11 and anthropogenic carbon agree closely with observation-based estimates. Model weaknesses include a too-weak formation and propagation of Antarctic Intermediate Water and of North Atlantic Deep Water. The model has been applied to quantify the recent carbon balance, surface-to-deep transport mechanisms, and the importance of vertical resolution for deep equatorial upwelling. Advection is a dominant surface-to-deep transport mechanism, whereas explicit diapycnal mixing is of little importance for passive tracers and contributes less than 3% to the modeled CFC-11 inventory in the Indo-Pacific. Decreasing the vertical resolution from 32 to 8 layers causes deep equatorial upwelling to increase by more than a factor of 4. Modeled ocean uptake of anthropogenic carbon is 19.7 GtonC over the decade from 1993 to 2003, comparable to an estimate from atmospheric oxygen data of 22.4 6.1 GtonC.

Modeling the relationship between 231Pa/230Th distribution in North Atlantic sediment and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Down-core variations in North Atlantic 231Paxs/230Thxs have been interpreted as changes in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). This modeling study confirms that hypothetical changes in the AMOC would indeed be recorded as changes in the distribution of sedimentary 231Paxs/230Thxs. At different sites in the North Atlantic the changes in sedimentary 231Pa/230Th that we simulate are diverse and do not reflect a simple tendency for 231Paxs/230Thxs to increase toward the production ratio (0.093) when the AMOC strength reduces but instead are moderated by the particle flux. In its collapsed or reduced state the AMOC does not remove 231Pa from the North Atlantic: Instead, 231Pa is scavenged to the North Atlantic sediment in areas of high particle flux. In this way the North Atlantic 231Paxs/230Thxs during AMOC shutdown follows the same pattern as 231Paxs/230Thxs in modern ocean basins with reduced rates of meridional overturning (i.e., Pacific or Indian oceans). We suggest that mapping the spatial distribution of 231Paxs/230Thxs across several key points in the North Atlantic is an achievable and practical qualitative indicator of the AMOC strength in the short term. Our results indicate that additional North Atlantic sites where down-core observations of 231Paxs/230Thxs would be useful coincide with locations which were maxima in the vertical particle flux during these periods. Reliable estimates of the North Atlantic mean 231Paxs/230Thxs should remain a goal in the longer term. Our results hint at a possible ‘‘seesaw-like’’ behavior in 231Pa/230Th in the South Atlantic.