Simon Hall

A New Approach to Assessing Risks to Financial Stability

The Bank’s July 2006 Financial Stability Report (FSR) included a new approach to assessing risks to the stability of the UK financial system. This paper explains the methodology and analysis behind this work and outlines what is being done to improve and extend it. Section 1 of the paper sets out the conceptual rationale for this approach. Section 2 describes its practical implementation in the July 2006 FSR, with further detail on methodology provided in a series of annexes. Section 3 concludes by discussing how this framework is being developed over time to improve the analysis of risks to the UK financial system and to strengthen the management of these risks by the financial sector.

Financial Accelerator Effects in UK Business Cycles

This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model incorporating financial accelerator effects to examine interactions between corporate investment and financial conditions in recent UK business cycles. The paper notes correspondences in recent recessions between the behaviour of business investment, the financial health of the corporate sector and some indicators of the availability of finance. It then investigates whether a financial accelerator model, developed by Bernanke, Gertier and Gilchrist (1999), can shed light on key features of recent recessions. The model is calibrated to broadly match UK financial conditions prevailing at the start of recent recessions, and is simulated with and without its financial accelerator mechanism. Simulations of the model incorporating financial accelerator effects seem consistent with some of the observed features of corporate real and financial behaviour in previous downturns.

Are There Downward Nominal Rigidities in Product Markets

This paper looks at disaggregated price data in the UK to see if there is evidence of downward nominal rigidity: are prices less likely to fall after a downward shock than they are to rise after an upward shock? The test is to see if, as the mean inflation rate falls, the skewness, or the tendency for price changes to bunch-up at zero, rises. The paper finds no convincing evidence of downward nominal rigidity.

The Role of Corporate Balance Sheets and Bank Lending Policies in a Financial Accelerator Framework

In this paper the popular Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (BGG) model is used to explore links between the financial health of the non-financial corporate sector and bank lending behaviour on the one hand, and the effectiveness of monetary policy on the other. The models microeconomic contracting framework is used to generate specific financial scenarios, defined in terms of steady-state credit spreads, bank lending policies and corporate sector financial health. These scenarios are embedded in the macroeconomic BGG model, and an investigation carried out into how they affect dynamic responses of the real economy to monetary and real shocks. The simulations show that in the context of the BGG model, the balance sheet positions of the financial and non-financial corporate sectors can affect the monetary transmission mechanism. It is illustrated that in certain financial scenarios in the model the financial accelerator mechanism is very potent, whereas in others it has little incremental impact. This implies that, for a given shock, monetary policy can be less or more proactive, respectively. In addition, the model simulation results suggest that certain parameters may merit particular attention. For example, the sensitivity of bank lending policy to news about corporate financial health has an especially marked impact in the models dynamics. And as illustrated in previous work, corporate leverage also plays an important role in amplifying and propagating shocks.

Crisis spillovers in emerging market economies: interlinkages, vulnerabilities and investor behaviour

Many emerging market economy (EME) financial crises in the 1990s quickly spread to other countries. By contrast, spillovers from the Argentina crisis in 2001-02 appear to have been much more limited. Why do some crises spread widely and others do not? In this paper the joint importance of intra-EME linkages, related country-specific vulnerabilities and investor behaviour are stressed. This framework provides insights into some potential reasons behind the differing extent of spillovers in two case studies - Asia 1997-98 and Argentina 2001-02. It also highlights the need for further analysis of the less easily measurable elements of the framework, in particular changes in investor behaviour.