Eduardo Luiz Gonçalves Rios-Neto

Background familiar versus perfil escolar do município: qual possui maior impacto no resultado educacional dos alunos brasileiros?

Na trajetoria escolar das pessoas, varios fatores podem influenciar seu sucesso, entre os quais se destacam aqueles relacionados ao ambiente familiar e a disponibilidade e qualidade da infra-estrutura da escola e seus professores. No Brasil, a maioria dos trabalhos demonstra a grande importância da familia na educacao de seus filhos, indicando a forte estratificacao educacional. Porem, resta saber como a qualidade da escola e dos seus docentes pode diminuir essa estratificacao. Esse artigo busca investigar os determinantes do resultado educacional nos niveis de ensino fundamental e medio no Brasil, considerando fatores relacionados ao background familiar e a estrutura escolar dos municipios. Essa analise e importante por examinar quais fatores do perfil escolar dos municipios podem diminuir a importância do ambiente familiar, no sentido de reduzir a estratificacao educacional, ou seja, a relacao entre a trajetoria escolar do individuo e sua origem social.

Diferenças intertemporais na média e distribuição do desempenho escolar no Brasil: o papel do nível socioeconômico, 1997 a 2005

It is general consensus in the literature on the evaluation of education that the socioeconomic level of students is the most important factor for explaining, at any given moment, the variations in the school performance of students evaluated by the Basic Education Evaluation System (SAEB). It is not known, however, how strongly temporal change in socioeconomic conditions affect changes in averages and distributions of school performance among the several different cycles of the SAEB. To investigate this question we used the method of counter-factual decomposition, developed by Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (1993). This method enables researchers isolate the contribution of the variation in the composition and return of socioeconomic level on the variation in the averages and distributions of school performance. The data used was taken from the Saeb applied in 1997 to 2005 to the cohort of students in the fourth grade of elementary education evaluated in mathematics. The main findings show that the increase in school coverage in the late 1990s lowered the average socioeconomic level of the students, was a factor in the reduction of a rise in inequality in school performance (composition effect). At the same time, there were reductions in the sensitivity of school performance to socioeconomic level (return effect). This result has ambiguous implications. On the one hand, it contributes to a reduction in average school performance and, on the other, helps equalize the distribution of scores between 1997 and 2005.

Tendências da desigualdade salarial para coortes de mulheres brancas e negras no Brasil

We analyze trends of wage inequality of the Brazilian female labor force, by race, during the 1980s and 1990s. Increasing returns to skills and increasing demand for skilled labor result in a divergence of wages growth between high and low skilled workers. This increasing gap results in an increase of wage inequality by race. In order to interpret trends, we take into account race differences in marriage patterns, fertility, household arrangements, educational levels, labor market participation, skill levels, occupational location and earnings, distinguishing between period and cohort measures. We use 1987-1999 Brazilian Household Sample Surveys data to examine the importance of within- and between-cohort changes for black and white women. Earnings functions are estimated from the pooled time-series of these cross-section data, using OLS and quantile regressions.

A relação entre parturição e trabalho feminino no Brasil

The objective here is to analyze the effect of having children on women’s share in the economically active population, observing the temporal evolution of this effect during the 1990s. In addition, based on the fact that each child may exert a different effect on a mother’s decision to work or not, the effect of the first, the second and the third (or more) children on this woman’s share in the economically active population were estimated. In general the findings suggest that, regardless of order of birth, children reduce the likelihood of women to participate in the labor market. Also, during the 1990s and the decade of 2000 the negative effect of the first and second children on women’s share in the labor market fell in impact, whereas the effect of a third child took on some importance.

Adiamento do ingresso no mercado de trabalho sob o enfoque demográfico: uma análise das regiões metropolitanas brasileiras

The article analyzes late entry into the labor market among Brazilian youth, using two demographic techniques: the singulate mean age, and survival tables. The data basis used is the Monthly Employment Survey (PME) carried out and published by the Brazilian Census Office (IBGE). The analysis considers six metropolitan areas (Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre and Recife) in 1983 and 2001. The findings show that men enter the labor market later than women, even though they begin their professional life before women. There is also evidence of changes in the age pattern of transition, as there was a fall in the number of people under age 17 entering in the labor market.

Análise do dividendo demográfico na matrícula escolar no Brasil numa abordagem hierárquica e hierárquica-espacial

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of attendance at elementary and secondary schools in Brazil, combining two traditions in educational studies. The first tradition has to do with the demographic dividend and the second with studies on educational determinants based on the theoretical approach of Educational Production Function. This article takes into account spatial dynamics in educational analysis by constructing an alternative methodology that combines spatial and hierarchical models. The main results show that, on the elementary level, lower demographic pressure is among the most important contextual factors that influence enrolment of children in schools. On the other hand, educational supply, represented by the ratio between the number of teachers and the school-age population, is the most important aspect in cities. The hierarchical-spatial model shows that the dependency ratio, together with the additional contextual variables in adjacent cities, has an influence on school enrollment of any given municipality.

Fecundidade na adolescência e religião em Belo Horizonte: um primeiro exercício

O projeto “Fecundidade na adoles-cencia e religiao em Belo Horizonte, MG”, financiado pela Coordenacao de Aperfei-coamento de Pessoal de Nivel Superior – Capes, por meio de acordo de cooperacao internacional, esta sendo desenvolvido pelo Centro de Desenvolvimento e Planejamento Regional – Cedeplar, da Universidade Fede-ral de Minas Gerais, e a University of Texas at Austin, desde agosto de 2008. A motivacao deste projeto e a consta-tacao de que, desde os anos 1970, o Brasil vem experimentando, por um lado, uma acentuada queda da fecundidade e um re-juvenescimento no seu padrao (BERQUO; CAVENAGHI, 2004) e, por outro, fortes mu-dancas ligadas a religiao, com reducao na proporcao de catolicos (de 92% para 74%) e aumento entre os declarados evangelicos (de 5,2% para 15,6%) (ALVES; NOVELLINO, 2006). Dados da pesquisa Saude Reprodutiva, Sexualidade e Raca/cor – SRSR, realizada pelo Cedeplar em 2002, para Belo Horizonte, indicam que 83,9% do total de mulheres de 15 a 59 anos afirmaram ter sido criadas na religiao catolica, mas apenas 61,3% delas se declararam catolicas no momento da entrevista. Ja entre as adolescentes de 15 a 19 anos, 76,9% disseram ter sido criadas na religiao catolica e 51,7% se declararam catolicas, sugerindo importante mudanca de filiacao religiosa ao longo da vida. Nao sao muitos os estudos que buscam verificar, de alguma maneira, a relacao entre fecundidade na adolescencia e religiao no Brasil. Uma revisao da literatura identificou trabalhos de um numero reduzido de auto-res, utilizando quatro fontes de dados: os censos demograficos (POTTER et al., 2005; COSTA et al., 2005; ALVES; NOVELLINO, 2006 e 2008; MCKINNON et al., 2007 e 2008), a PNDS – Pesquisa Nacional sobre Demografia e Saude de 1996 (GUPTA; LEITE, 1999; LEITE et al., 2004; CESARE; VIGNOLI, 2006), a pesquisa GRAVAD – Gra-videz na Adolescencia: Estudo Multicentrico sobre Jovens, Sexualidade e Reproducao no Brasil

Comparação entre metodologias de idade-período-coorte para o estudo de uma medida da progressão escolar no Brasil

The aim of this article is to conduct a comparative methodological essay of two estimators of ageperiod-cohort models: the conventional estimator obtained by the generalized linear restricted models (MLGR) and the so-called intrinsic estimator (EI). The objects are contributions of age, period and cohort effects to temporal changes in the progression probability to the 5th grade of elementary school for Brazilian women. The APC modeling is justified because age, period and cohort effects may significantly affect the probability of grade progression: age effects reflect both the minimal age of school entry and the trade-off between study and work; period effects are associated with different economical and political conjunctures, as well as with current educational policies; finally, cohort effects reflect social attributes unique to a group. Both are juxtaposed in terms of the efficiency, significance and parameter estimates. The results reveal the potentiality of the solution to the age-period-cohort model based on intrinsic estimator, which presents parameters with smaller variance than those estimated from generalized linear restricted models. Therefore, projections of grade progression probabilities based on the extrapolation of standard errors of the intrinsic estimator can be promising.

Emigração internacional de brasileiros para os Estados Unidos: as redes sociais e o papel de intermediação nos deslocamentos exercido pelas agências de turismo

This article analyzes the role of “intermediary mechanisms” (especially the active role of tourist agencies) in the international emigration process of Brazilians to the USA. First a dynamic and relational approach to the understanding of the migration phenomenon is established. Next, a formal structural analysis (grounded on Social Network Analysis and Graph Theory) was carried out to facilitate understanding of emigration by considering its basic structural characteristics. The final analysis suggests that tourist agencies play an important role of structural mediation for migrants entering the country. The action of such agencies is decisive in regulating migratory flows through well-established social networks in the Brazilian international migration system.

O efeito trabalhador adicional para filhos no Brasil

The aim of this paper was to test the hypothesis of the existence of the effect of the added worker for children in Brazil. The paper aims to identify whether a situation of unemployment of the head of the household will lead some daughter or son in the family to enter the economically active population (EAP). The database used was the Monthly Employment Survey conducted by IBGE, which allows the construction of panels for longitudinal data analysis. The hypothesis was tested for at least one child aged 10 to 18, between 2002 and 2013, for the metropolitan areas of Belo Horizonte, Salvador, Porto Alegre, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Recife, which make up the area covered by the Monthly Employment Survey (PME). This study accepts the existence of differential by gender of the head of the household for the added worker effect for children ages 10-18. The results showed that there was a greater positive effect for male heads of household than for female heads of household. The variable of transition of the son or daughter to employed activity showed no statistical significance that would allow us to assume the existence of the effect. The hypothesis of the existence of a differential by gender was confirmed, but in the opposite direction from the original hypothesis.