Soumia Serrar

Arctic influence on subseasonal midlatitude prediction

Forecast experiments with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model with and without relaxation of the Arctic troposphere toward reanalysis data are carried out in order to explore the influence that improved Arctic forecasts during wintertime would have on the skill of medium-range and extended-range prediction of 500 hPa geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. It turns out that the largest midlatitude improvements are found over eastern Europe, northern Asia, and North America; no discernible impact is found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, where midlatitude and tropical dynamics appear to be more important. The strength of the linkage between the Arctic and the midlatitudes is found to be flow dependent, with anomalous northerly wind leading to a stronger Arctic influence. Finally, the results are discussed in the context of the possible impact of Arctic sea ice decline on midlatitude weather and climate.

Understanding the Anomalously Cold European Winter of 2005/06 Using Relaxation Experiments

Abstract Experiments with the atmospheric component of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) have been carried out to study the origin of the atmospheric circulation anomalies that led to the unusually cold European winter of 2005/06. Experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice fields fail to reproduce the observed atmospheric circulation anomalies suggesting that the role of SST and sea ice was either not very important or the atmospheric response to SST and sea ice was not very well captured by the ECMWF model. Additional experiments are carried out in which certain regions of the atmosphere are relaxed toward analysis data thereby artificially suppressing the development of forecast error. The relaxation experiments suggest that both tropospheric circulation anomalies in the Euro–Atlantic region and the anomalously weak stratospheric polar vortex can be explained by tropical circulation anomalies. Separate relaxation experiments for the tropical stratosphere and tropic...

The oceanic response to mesoscale atmospheric forcing

The response of the oceanic circulation to mesoscale atmospheric forcing is studied by comparing integrations of a global sea ice-ocean model with high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis data (0.4◦) to those with the same forcing coarse grained to a resolution typically employed in climate models and atmospheric reanalyses (1.8◦). It is shown that the representation of mesoscale features in atmospheric forcing fields leads to an increase in the strength of the wind-driven gyres in the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions of about 5–10% of its mean value. An increase of similar magnitude is found for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. From the results of this study it is argued that small-scale atmospheric phenomena such as fronts, mesoscale cyclones, and topographic jets play an important role in driving the mean oceanic circulation.

Fast atmospheric response to a sudden thinning of Arctic sea ice

In order to understand the influence of a thinner Arctic sea ice on the wintertime atmosphere, idealized ensemble experiments with increased sea ice surface temperature have been carried out with the Integrated Forecast System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The focus is on the fast atmospheric response to a sudden “thinning” of Arctic sea ice to disentangle the role of various different processes. We found that boundary layer turbulence is the most important process that distributes anomalous heat vertically. Anomalous longwave radiation plays an important role within the first few days before temperatures in the lower troposphere had time to adjust. The dynamic response tends to balance that due to boundary layer turbulence while cloud processes and convection play only a minor role. Overall the response of the atmospheric large-scale circulation is relatively small with up to 2 hPa in the mean sea level pressure during the first 15 days; the quasi-equilibrium response reached in the second and third month of the integration is about twice as large. During the first few days the response tends to be baroclinic in the whole Arctic. Already after a few days an anti-cyclonic equivalent-barotropic response develops over north-western Siberia and north-eastern Europe. The structure resembles very much that of the atmospheric equilibrium response indicating that fast tropospheric processes such as fewer quasi-barotropic cyclones entering this continental area are key opposed to slower processes such as those involving, for example, stratosphere-troposphere interaction.

Detecting annual and seasonal variations of CO2, CO and N2O from a multi-year collocated satellite-radiosonde data-set using the new Rapid Radiance Reconstruction (3R-N) model

Abstract The NOAA polar meteorological satellites have embarked the TIROS-N operational vertical sounder (TOVS) since 1979. Using radiosondes and NOAA-10 TOVS measurements which are collocated within a narrow space and time window, we have studied the differences between the TOVS measurements and simulated measurements from a new fast, Rapid Radiance Reconstruction Network (3R-N), non-linear radiative transfer model with up to date spectroscopy. Simulations use radiosonde temperature and humidity measurements as the prime input. The radiative transfer model also uses fixed greenhouse gas absorber amounts (CO2,CO,N2O) and reasonable estimates of O3 and of surface temperature. The 3R-N model is first presented and validated. Then, a study of the differences between the simulated and measured radiances shows annual trends and seasonal variations consistent with independent measurements of variations in CO2 and other greenhouse gases atmospheric concentrations. The improved accuracy of 3R-N and a better handling of its deviations with respect to observations allow most of difficulties met in a previous study (J. Climate 15 (2002) 95) to be resolved.

Using NWP to assess the influence of the Arctic atmosphere on midlatitude weather and climate

The influence of the Arctic atmosphere on Northern Hemisphere midlatitude tropospheric weather and climate is explored by comparing the skill of two sets of 14-day weather forecast experiments using the ECMWF model with and without relaxation of the Arctic atmosphere towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data during the integration. Two pathways are identified along which the Arctic influences midlatitude weather: a pronounced one over Asia and Eastern Europe, and a secondary one over North America. In general, linkages are found to be strongest (weakest) during boreal winter (summer) when the amplitude of stationary planetary waves over the Northern Hemisphere is strongest (weakest). No discernible Arctic impact is found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific region, which is consistent with predominantly southwesterly flow. An analysis of the flow-dependence of the linkages shows that anomalous northerly flow conditions increase the Arctic influence on midlatitude weather over the continents. Specifically, an anomalous northerly flow from the Kara Sea towards West Asia leads to cold surface temperature anomalies not only over West Asia but also over Eastern and Central Europe. Finally, the results of this study are discussed in the light of potential midlatitude benefits of improved Arctic prediction capabilities.摘要本文采用ECMWF模式进行了两组14天天气预报试验, 两组试验的区别是积分过程中是否采用趋向ERA再分析数据的北极大气松弛系数, 通过比较来分析北极大气对北半球中纬度对流层天气和气候的影响, 并确定了两条北极影响中纬度天气的路径: 主要路径在亚洲和东欧, 次要路径在北美. 总的来说, 北半球冬季(夏季)静止行星波幅度最大(最弱)的情况下, 关联最强(最弱);北大西洋和北太平洋地区的北极影响很弱, 这与西南气流是一致的. 对气流依赖性的分析表明, 北极异常气流加强了北极对中纬度大陆地区的影响, 具体来说, 喀拉海向西亚的偏北异常气流导致了西亚及东欧和中欧地区的异常低温. 最后, 从改进北极预测能力以利于中纬度的角度讨论了本文的研究结果.