Sri Hartoyo

ANALYSIS OF PROBABILITY FOR ACHIEVING THE REDUCTION OF DEFORESTATION RATE: FOREST TRANSITION THEORY APPROACH

Indonesia is a decentralized country so that each region implements its own development policy. The economic activity imposed by the regions has implications on the diverse dynamics of forest cover, indicated by the different rates of deforestation.. This paper aims to describe the dynamics of Indonesian forest cover by using forest transition hypothesis framework and analyze the factors that accelerate the decline in deforestation rates. Refering to land cover data for period of 2000-2013 and economic variables, model of ordered logistic regression (OLR) was developed by using maximum likelihood estimation method. The result showed that, provinces in Indonesia can be classified into three groups: high, medium and low. Share of forest cover and population density increase the probability in achieving low deforestation rate. Conversely, income per capita is indicated to be a factor that inhibits the decline in deforestation rates. Acceleration of the achievement of the decrease in deforestation rates can be done through (1) enhancing the clarity of tenure, (2) improving environmental policies such as development of environmental reward system, (3) increasing value added output to improve product competitiveness; (4) conservation and reforestation, and (5) improving agricultural technology.

TRANSMISI HARGA JAGUNG DI PROVINSI LAMPUNG

Corn is one of the leading commodities in Lampung Province. The average corn price received by farmers (producers) from January 2009 to December 2014 amounted to Rp 1.820 per kilogram, while the average price of corn at the consumer level was at Rp 3.205 per kilogram. Corn prices at the consumer level are more volatile when compared with the price of corn at the producer level. The purpose of this study are to analyze the transmission of corn prices from the consumer level to the producer level in Lampung Province. The data used was a monthly time series data from January 2009 to December 2014 (72 month). Asymmetric Error Correction Model (AECM) developed by von Cramon-Taubadel and Loy (1996) was used to analyze corn price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level. Causality test results indicate that corn prices at the consumer level affect the formation of corn prices at the producer level. From AECM estimates obtained, the short run corn price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level was asymmetric. However, the long-run transmission of corn prices from the consumer level to the producer was symmetric. After the Wald test, results obtained showed that there was no prove of asymmetric price transmission from the consumer level to the producer level in the long run.

Dampak Kebijakan Input, Output, dan Perdagangan Beras terhadap Diversifikasi Pangan Pokok

EnglishAs one of the five most populous countries in the world, Indonesia has a big challenge to meet the food needs of its people. Food diversification has long been an important agenda of the national agricultural development planning program, but the achievement, however, remains disappointing. This paper aims to analyze the impacts of rice input, output and trade policy on diversification of major staple food consumption and production. This study analyzes four main staple foods, i.e. rice, maize, cassava, and wheat using national series data for the period of 1981-2013. The System of Simultaneous Equations Model consisting of 22 structural equations and 31 identity equations were estimated using a Two-Stage Least Square method. The results show that single policy instrument of reducing fertilizer and seed subsidies and increasing the government purchasing price policy increase diversification of food consumption and production. Increasing rice import tariff is not effective to improve either consumption nor production diversification, but rice import ban could improve consumption diversification. Increasing the government purchasing price is not quite effective as the compensation for the fertilizer subsidy reduction. The fertilizer subsidy reduction policy should be conducted gradually. Seed subsidy reduction combined with rice import ban is considered as an alternative to the existing policy. IndonesianSebagai salah satu dari lima negara dengan penduduk terbesar di dunia, Indonesia mempunyai tantangan cukup besar dalam pemenuhan konsumsi pangan penduduknya. Diversifikasi pangan sudah lama menjadi salah satu agenda penting dalam program nasional pembangunan pertaniani namun pencapaiannya masih jauh dari yang diharapkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan input, output, dan perdagangan beras terhadap diversifikasi produksi dan konsumsi pangan pokok yaitu, beras, jagung, ubi kayu, dan terigu, untuk data tingkat nasional tahun 1981–2013. Penelitian ini menggunakan model persamaan simultan, terdiri atas 22 persamaan struktural dan 31 persamaan identitas yang diestimasi dengan metode Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). Hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan tunggal baik pengurangan subsidi pupuk dan benih, maupun kebijakan menaikkan Harga Pembelian Pemerintah mampu meningkatkan diversifikasi produksi dan konsumsi pangan pokok. Kebijakan tarif impor beras tidak efektif untuk meningkatkan diversifikasi konsumsi dan produksi pangan pokok, tetapi kebijakan pelarangan impor dapat meningkatkan diversifikasi konsumsi pangan. Kebijakan peningkatan harga pembelian pemerintah terbukti kurang efektif sebagai kompensasi pengurangan subsidi pupuk. Kebijakan pengurangan subsidi pupuk harus diterapkan secara bertahap. Pengurangan subsidi benih yang disertai dengan pelarangan impor dapat menjadi kebijakan alternatif saat ini.

ANALISIS KONTRAK BERJANGKA OLEIN DI BURSA BERJANGKA JAKARTA

Study about efficient market hypothesis is a common object for many financial researchers. Nevertheless, there are still limited studies about futures contract market particularly in the emerging market. The purposes of this study were to test the weak form efficiency of the Olein futures contract in the Jakarta Futures Exchange and to seek factors that can affect the fluctuation of Olein futures contract price. ARIMA and GARCH models were used as the basis for the analyses. Results of the study indicated that using weekly data, the weak form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for the Olein futures contract in the Jakarta Futures Exchange, meaning that the market was in efficient.This implies that some one will be able to outperform the market using technical analysis for predicting future price changes. Furthermore, using monthly data, the fluctuation of Olein futures contract returnis influenced significantly by interest rate, exchange rate and CPO price.