Stefan R. M. Ligtenberg

A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance

Warming and Melting Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise. The mass balance of the polar ice sheets is estimated by combining the results of existing independent techniques. We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.

Antarctic ice-sheet loss driven by basal melting of ice shelves

Accurate prediction of global sea-level rise requires that we understand the cause of recent, widespread and intensifying glacier acceleration along Antarctic ice-sheet coastal margins. Atmospheric and oceanic forcing have the potential to reduce the thickness and extent of floating ice shelves, potentially limiting their ability to buttress the flow of grounded tributary glaciers. Indeed, recent ice-shelf collapse led to retreat and acceleration of several glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. But the extent and magnitude of ice-shelf thickness change, the underlying causes of such change, and its link to glacier flow rate are so poorly understood that its future impact on the ice sheets cannot yet be predicted. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and modelling of the surface firn layer to reveal the circum-Antarctic pattern of ice-shelf thinning through increased basal melt. We deduce that this increased melt is the primary control of Antarctic ice-sheet loss, through a reduction in buttressing of the adjacent ice sheet leading to accelerated glacier flow. The highest thinning rates occur where warm water at depth can access thick ice shelves via submarine troughs crossing the continental shelf. Wind forcing could explain the dominant patterns of both basal melting and the surface melting and collapse of Antarctic ice shelves, through ocean upwelling in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, and atmospheric warming on the Antarctic Peninsula. This implies that climate forcing through changing winds influences Antarctic ice-sheet mass balance, and hence global sea level, on annual to decadal timescales.

A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009

Melting Away We assume the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets are the main drivers of global sea-level rise, but how large is the contribution from other sources of glacial ice? Gardner et al. (p. 852) synthesize data from glacialogical inventories to find that glaciers in the Arctic, Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia contribute approximately as much melt water as the ice sheets themselves: 260 billion tons per year between 2003 and 2009, accounting for about 30% of the observed sea-level rise during that period. The contribution of glaciers to sea level rise is nearly as much as that of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets combined. Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets are losing large amounts of water to the world’s oceans. However, estimates of their contribution to sea level rise disagree. We provide a consensus estimate by standardizing existing, and creating new, mass-budget estimates from satellite gravimetry and altimetry and from local glaciological records. In many regions, local measurements are more negative than satellite-based estimates. All regions lost mass during 2003–2009, with the largest losses from Arctic Canada, Alaska, coastal Greenland, the southern Andes, and high-mountain Asia, but there was little loss from glaciers in Antarctica. Over this period, the global mass budget was –259 ± 28 gigatons per year, equivalent to the combined loss from both ice sheets and accounting for 29 ± 13% of the observed sea level rise.

Dynamic thinning of glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula

Increasingly rapid ice sheet melting Glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula have begun losing mass at a rapid and accelerating rate. Wouters et al. documented the dramatic thinning of the land-based ice, which began in 2009, using satellite altimetry and gravity observations. The melting and weakening of ice shelves reduce their buttressing effect, allowing the glaciers to flow more quickly to the sea. Science, this issue p. 899 Glaciers on the Southern Antarctic Peninsula are disappearing at increasing rates. Growing evidence has demonstrated the importance of ice shelf buttressing on the inland grounded ice, especially if it is resting on bedrock below sea level. Much of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula satisfies this condition and also possesses a bed slope that deepens inland. Such ice sheet geometry is potentially unstable. We use satellite altimetry and gravity observations to show that a major portion of the region has, since 2009, destabilized. Ice mass loss of the marine-terminating glaciers has rapidly accelerated from close to balance in the 2000s to a sustained rate of –56 ± 8 gigatons per year, constituting a major fraction of Antarctica’s contribution to rising sea level. The widespread, simultaneous nature of the acceleration, in the absence of a persistent atmospheric forcing, points to an oceanic driving mechanism.

Oceanic controls on the mass balance of Wilkins Ice Shelf, Antarctica

� 0.8 m a � 1 , driven by a mean basal melt rate of 〈wb〉 = 1.3 � 0.4 m a � 1 . Interannual variability was large, associated with changes in both surface mass accumulation and 〈wb〉. Basal melt rate declined significantly around 2000 from 1.8 � 0.4 m a � 1 for 1992–2000 to � 0.75 � 0.55 m a � 1 for 2001–2008; the latter value corresponding to approximately steady-state ice-shelf mass. Observations of ocean temperature T obtained during 2007–2009 by instrumented seals reveal a cold, deep halo of Winter Water (WW; T ≈ � 1.6°C) surrounding WIS. The base of the WW in the halo is � 170 m, approximately the mean ice draft for WIS. We hypothesize that the transition in 〈wb〉 in 2000 was caused by a small perturbation (� 10–20 m) in the relative depths of the ice base and the bottom of the WW layer in the halo. We conclude that basal melting of thin ice shelves like WIS is very sensitive to upper-ocean and coastal processes that act on shorter time and space scales than those affecting basal melting of thicker West Antarctic ice shelves such as George VI and Pine Island Glacier.

Observed thinning of Totten Glacier is linked to coastal polynya variability

Analysis of ICESat-1 data (2003-2008) shows significant surface lowering of Totten Glacier, the glacier discharging the largest volume of ice in East Antarctica, and less change on nearby Moscow University Glacier. After accounting for firn compaction anomalies, the thinning appears to coincide with fast-flowing ice indicating a dynamical origin. Here, to elucidate these observations, we apply high-resolution ice-ocean modelling. Totten Ice Shelf is simulated to have higher, more variable basal melting rates. We link this variability to the volume of cold water, originating in polynyas upon sea ice formation, reaching the sub-ice-shelf cavity. Hence, we propose that the observed increased thinning of Totten Glacier is due to enhanced basal melting caused by a decrease in cold polynya water reaching its cavity. We support this hypothesis with passive microwave data of polynya extent variability. Considering the widespread changes in sea ice conditions, this mechanism could be contributing extensively to ice-shelf instability.

A high‐resolution record of Greenland mass balance

We map recent Greenland Ice Sheet elevation change at high spatial (5 km) and temporal (monthly) resolution using CryoSat-2 altimetry. After correcting for the impact of changing snowpack properties associated with unprecedented surface melting in 2012, we find good agreement (3 cm/yr bias) with airborne measurements. With the aid of regional climate and firn modeling, we compute high spatial and temporal resolution records of Greenland mass evolution, which correlate (R = 0.96) with monthly satellite gravimetry and reveal glacier dynamic imbalance. During 2011–2014, Greenland mass loss averaged 269 ± 51 Gt/yr. Atmospherically driven losses were widespread, with surface melt variability driving large fluctuations in the annual mass deficit. Terminus regions of five dynamically thinning glaciers, which constitute less than 1% of Greenland’s area, contributed more than 12% of the net ice loss. This high-resolution record demonstrates that mass deficits extending over small spatial and temporal scales have made a relatively large contribution to recent ice sheet imbalance.

Explaining the presence of perennial liquid water bodies in the firn of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Recent observations have shown that the firn layer on the Greenland Ice Sheet features subsurface bodies of liquid water at the end of the winter season. Using a model with basic firn hydrology, thermodynamics, and compaction in one dimension, we find that a combination of moderate to strong surface melt and a high annual accumulation rate is required to form such a perennial firn aquifer. The high accumulation rate ensures that there is pore space available to store water at a depth where it is protected from the winter cold. Low-accumulation sites cannot provide sufficiently deep pore space to store liquid water. However, for even higher accumulation rates, the total cold content of the winter accumulation becomes sufficient to refreeze the total amount of liquid water. As a consequence, wintertime or springtime observations of subsurface liquid water in these specific accumulation conditions cannot distinguish between a truly perennial firn aquifer and water layers that will ultimately refreeze completely.

Quantifying the seasonal"breathing"of the Antarctic ice sheet

[1] One way to estimate the mass balance of an ice sheet is to convert satellite observed surface elevation changes into mass changes. In order to do so, elevation and mass changes due to firn processes must be taken into account. Here, we use a firn densification model to simulate seasonal variations in depth and mass of the Antarctic firn layer, and assess their influence on surface elevation. Forced by the seasonal cycle in temperature and accumulation, a clear seasonal cycle in average firn depth of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) is found with an amplitude of 0.026 m, representing a volume oscillation of 340 km3. The phase of this oscillation is rather constant across the AIS: the ice sheet volume increases in austral autumn, winter and spring and quickly decreases in austral summer. Seasonal accumulation differences are the major driver of this annual ‘breathing’, with temperature fluctuations playing a secondary role. The modeled seasonal elevation signal explains 31% of the seasonal elevation signal derived from ENVISAT radar altimetry, with both signals having similar phase.

Channelized Melting Drives Thinning Under a Rapidly Melting Antarctic Ice Shelf

Ice shelves play a vital role in regulating loss of grounded ice and in supplying freshwater to coastal seas. However, melt variability within ice shelves is poorly constrained and may be instrumental in driving ice shelf imbalance and collapse. High-resolution altimetry measurements from 2010 to 2016 show that Dotson Ice Shelf (DIS), West Antarctica, thins in response to basal melting focused along a single 5 km-wide and 60 km-long channel extending from the ice shelfs grounding zone to its calving front. If focused thinning continues at present rates, the channel will melt through, and the ice shelf collapse, within 40–50 years, almost two centuries before collapse is projected from the average thinning rate. Our findings provide evidence of basal melt-driven sub-ice shelf channel formation and its potential for accelerating the weakening of ice shelves.