Stefan Rahmstorf

Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

The term “tipping point” commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term “tipping element” to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.

Global sea level linked to global temperature.

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880–2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990–2100.

Rapid changes of glacial climate simulated in a coupled climate model.

Abrupt changes in climate, termed Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events, have punctuated the last glacial period (∼100–10 kyr ago) but not the Holocene (the past 10 kyr). Here we use an intermediate-complexity climate model to investigate the stability of glacial climate, and we find that only one mode of Atlantic Ocean circulation is stable: a cold mode with deep water formation in the Atlantic Ocean south of Iceland. However, a ‘warm’ circulation mode similar to the present-day Atlantic Ocean is only marginally unstable, and temporary transitions to this warm mode can easily be triggered. This leads to abrupt warm events in the model which share many characteristics of the observed Dansgaard–Oeschger events. For a large freshwater input (such as a large release of icebergs), the models deep water formation is temporarily switched off, causing no strong cooling in Greenland but warming in Antarctica, as is observed for Heinrich events. Our stability analysis provides an explanation why glacial climate is much more variable than Holocene climate.

Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years

Oceans cover more than two-thirds of our blue planet. The waters move in a global circulation system, driven by subtle density differences and transporting huge amounts of heat. Ocean circulation is thus an active and highly nonlinear player in the global climate game. Increasingly clear evidence implicates ocean circulation in abrupt and dramatic climate shifts, such as sudden temperature changes in Greenland on the order of 5–10 °C and massive surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean — events that have occurred repeatedly during the last glacial cycle.

Simulation of modern and glacial climates with a coupled global model of intermediate complexity

A global coupled ocean–atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is used to simulate the equilibrium climate of both today and the Last Glacial Maximum, around 21,000 years ago. The model successfully predicts the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, temperature distribution, hydrological cycle and sea-ice cover of both periods without using ‘flux adjustments’. Changes in oceanic circulation, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean, play an important role in glacial cooling.

CLIMBER-2: A climate system model of intermediate complexity. Part I: Model description and performance for present climate

Abstract A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its performance for present climate conditions are presented. The model consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vegetation cover, and global carbon cycle. The modules interact through the fluxes of momentum, energy, water and carbon. The model has a coarse spatial resolution, nevertheless capturing the major features of the Earths geography. The model describes temporal variability of the system on seasonal and longer time scales. Due to the fact that the model does not employ flux adjustments and has a fast turnaround time, it can be used to study climates significantly different from the present one and to perform long-term (multimillennia) simulations. The comparison of the model results with present climate data show that the model successfully describes the seasonal variability of a large set of characteristics of the climate system, including radiative balance, temperature, precipitation, ocean circulation and cryosphere.

On the driving processes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Because of its relevance for the global climate the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) has been a major research focus for many years. Yet the question of which physical mechanisms ultimately drive the AMOC, in the sense of providing its energy supply, remains a matter of controversy. Here we review both observational data and model results concerning the two main candidates: vertical mixing processes in the oceans interior and wind-induced Ekman upwelling in the Southern Ocean. In distinction to the energy source we also discuss the role of surface heat and freshwater fluxes, which influence the volume transport of the meridional overturning circulation and shape its spatial circulation pattern without actually supplying energy to the overturning itself in steady state. We conclude that both wind-driven upwelling and vertical mixing are likely contributing to driving the observed circulation. To quantify their respective contributions, future research needs to address some open questions, which we outline.

Thermohaline circulation hysteresis: a model intercomparison

We present results from an intercomparison of 11 different climate models of intermediate complexity, in which the North Atlantic Ocean was subjected to slowly varying changes in freshwater input. All models show a characteristic hysteresis response of the thermohaline circulation to the freshwater forcing; which can be explained by Stommels salt advection feedback. The width of the hysteresis curves varies between 0.2 and 0.5 Sv in the models. Major differences are found in the location of present-day climate on the hysteresis diagram. In seven of the models, present-day climate for standard parameter choices is found in the bi-stable regime, in four models this climate is in the mono-stable regime. The proximity of the present-day climate to the Stommel bifurcation point, beyond which North Atlantic Deep Water formation cannot be sustained, varies from less than 0.1 Sv to over 0.5 Sv.

Climate related sea-level variations over the past two millennia

We present new sea-level reconstructions for the past 2100 y based on salt-marsh sedimentary sequences from the US Atlantic coast. The data from North Carolina reveal four phases of persistent sea-level change after correction for glacial isostatic adjustment. Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.

Long-Term Global Warming Scenarios Computed with an Efficient Coupled Climate Model

We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000, beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentrations. The thermohaline ocean circulation declines strongly in all our scenarios over the next 50 years due to a thermal effect. Changes in the hydrological cycle determine whether the circulation recovers or collapses in the long run. Both outcomes are possible within present uncertainty limits. In case of a collapse, a substantial long-lasting cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying of Europe is simulated.