Craig S. Weaver

Fore-arc migration in Cascadia and its neotectonic significance

Neogene deformation, paleomagnetic rotations, and sparse geodetic data suggest the Cascadia fore arc is migrating northward along the coast and breaking up into large rotating blocks. Deformation occurs mostly around the margins of a large, relatively aseismic Oregon coastal block composed of thick, accreted seamount crust. This 400-km-long block is moving slowly clockwise with respect to North America about a Euler pole in eastern Washington, thus increasing convergence rates along its leading edge near Cape Blanco, and creating an extensional volcanic arc on its trailing edge. Northward movement of the block breaks western Washington into smaller, seismically active blocks and compresses them against the Canadian Coast Mountains restraining bend. Arc-parallel transport of fore-arc blocks is calculated to be up to 9 mm/yr, sufficient to produce damaging earthquakes in a broad deformation zone along block margins.

High-resolution lidar topography of the Puget Lowland, Washington - A bonanza for earth science

More than 10,000 km2 of high-resolution, public-domain topography acquired by the Puget Sound Lidar Consortium is revolutionizing investigations of active faulting, continental glaciation, landslides, and surficial processes in the seismically active Puget Lowland. The Lowland—the population and economic center of the Pacific Northwest—presents special problems for hazards investigations, with its young glacial topography, dense forest cover, and urbanization. Lidar mapping during leaf-off conditions has led to a detailed digital model of the landscape beneath the forest canopy. The surface thus revealed contains a rich and diverse record of previously unknown surface-rupturing faults, deep-seated landslides, uplifted Holocene and Pleistocene beaches, and subglacial and periglacial features. More than half a dozen suspected postglacial fault scarps have been identified to date. Five scarps that have been trenched show evidence of large, Holocene, surfacerupturing earthquakes.

Predicting Eruptions at Mount St. Helens, June 1980 Through December 1982

Thirteen eruptions of Mount St. Helens between June 1980 and December 1982 were predicted tens of minutes to, more generally, a few hours in advance. The last seven of these eruptions, starting with that of mid-April 1981, were predicted between 3 days and 3 weeks in advance. Precursory seismicity, deformation of the crater floor and the lava dome, and, to a lesser extent, gas emissions provided telltale evidence of forthcoming eruptions. The newly developed capability for prediction reduced risk to life and property and influenced land-use decisions.

Location, structure, and seismicity of the Seattle fault zone, Washington: Evidence from aeromagnetic anomalies, geologic mapping, and seismic-reflection data

A high-resolution aeromagnetic survey of the Puget Lowland shows details of the Seattle fault zone, an active but largely concealed east-trending zone of reverse faulting at the southern margin of the Seattle basin. Three elongate, east-trending magnetic anomalies are associated with north- dipping Tertiary strata exposed in the hanging wall; the magnetic anomalies indicate where these strata continue beneath glacial deposits. The northernmost anomaly, a narrow, elongate magnetic high, precisely correlates with magnetic Miocene volcanic conglomerate. The middle anomaly, a broad magnetic low, correlates with thick, nonmagnetic Eocene and Oligocene marine and fluvial strata. The southern anomaly, a broad, complex magnetic high, correlates with Eocene volcanic and sedimentary rocks. This tripartite package of anomalies is especially clear over Bainbridge Island west of Seattle and over the region east of Lake Washington. Although attenuated in the intervening region, the pattern can be correlated with the mapped strike of beds following a northwest-striking anticline beneath Seattle. The aeromagnetic and geologic data define three main strands of the Seattle fault zone identified in marine seismic-reflection profiles to be subparallel to mapped bedrock trends over a distance of >50 km. The locus of faulting coincides with a diffuse zone of shallow crustal seismicity and the region of uplift produced by the M 7 Seattle earthquake of a.d. 900–930.

Earthquake Swarms and Local Crustal Spreading Along Major Strike-slip Faults in California

Earthquake swarms in California are often localized to areas within dextral offsets in the linear trend in active fault strands, suggesting a relation between earthquake swarms and local crustal spreading. Local crustal spereading is required by the geometry of dextral offsets when, as in the San Andreas system, faults have dominantly strike-slip motion with right-lateral displacement. Three clear examples of this relation occur in the Imperial Valley, Coso Hot Springs, and the Danville region, all in California. The first two of these areas are known for their Holocene volcanism and geothermal potential, which is consistent with crustal spreading and magmatic intrusion. The third example, however, shows no evidence for volcanism or geothermal activity at the surface.

The southern Whidbey Island fault: An active structure in the Puget Lowland, Washington

Information from seismic-reflection profiles, outcrops, boreholes, and potential field surveys is used to interpret the structure and history of the southern Whidbey Island fault in the Puget Lowland of western Washington. This northwest-trending fault comprises a broad (as wide as 6–11 km), steep, northeast-dipping zone that includes several splays with inferred strike-slip, reverse, and thrust displacement. Transpressional deformation along the southern Whidbey Island fault is indicated by along-strike variations in structural style and geometry, positive flower structure, local unconformities, out-of-plane displacements, and juxtaposition of correlative sedimentary units with different histories. The southern Whidbey Island fault represents a segment of a boundary between two major crustal blocks. The Cascade block to the northeast is floored by diverse assemblages of pre-Tertiary rocks; the Coast Range block to the southwest is floored by lower Eocene marine basaltic rocks of the Crescent Formation. The fault probably originated during the early Eocene as a dextral strike-slip fault along the eastern side of a continental-margin rift. Bending of the fault and transpressional deformation began during the late middle Eocene and continues to the present. Oblique convergence and clockwise rotation along the continental margin are the inferred driving forces for ongoing deformation. Evidence for Quaternary movement on the southern Whidbey Island fault includes (1) offset and disrupted upper Quaternary strata imaged on seismic-reflection profiles; (2) borehole data that suggests as much as 420 m of structural relief on the Tertiary-Quaternary boundary in the fault zone; (3) several meters of displacement along exposed faults in upper Quaternary sediments; (4) late Quaternary folds with limb dips of as much as ≈9°; (5) large-scale liquefaction features in upper Quaternary sediments within the fault zone; and (6) minor historical seismicity. The southern Whidbey Island fault should be considered capable of generating large earthquakes (M s ≥7) and represents a potential seismic hazard to residents of the Puget Lowland.

Holocene fault scarps near Tacoma, Washington, USA

Airborne laser mapping confirms that Holocene active faults traverse the Puget Sound metropolitan area, northwestern continental United States. The mapping, which detects forest-floor relief of as little as 15 cm, reveals scarps along geophysical lineaments that separate areas of Holocene uplift and subsidence. Along one such line of scarps, we found that a fault warped the ground surface between A.D. 770 and 1160. This reverse fault, which projects through Tacoma, Washington, bounds the southern and western sides of the Seattle uplift. The northern flank of the Seattle uplift is bounded by a reverse fault beneath Seattle that broke in A.D. 900–930. Observations of tectonic scarps along the Tacoma fault demonstrate that active faulting with associated surface rupture and ground motions pose a significant hazard in the Puget Sound region.

Seismic Precursors to the Mount St. Helens Eruptions in 1981 and 1982

Six categories of seismic events are recognized on the seismograms from stations in the vicinity of Mount St. Helens. Two types of high-frequency earthquakes occur near the volcano and under the volcano at depths of more than 4 kilometers. Medium- and low-frequency earthquakes occur at shallow depths (less than 3 kilometers) within the volcano and increase in number and size before eruptions. Temporal changes in the energy release of the low-frequency earthquakes have been used in predicting all the eruptions since October 1980. During and after eruptions, two types of low-frequency emergent surface events occur, including rockfalls and steam or gas bursts from the lava dome.

Forecasts and predictions of eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, USA: 1975–1984

Abstract Public statements about volcanic activity at Mount St. Helens include factual statements, forecasts, and predictions. A factual statement describes current conditions but does not anticipate future events. A forecast is a comparatively imprecise statement of the time, place, and nature of expected activity. A prediction is a comparatively precise statement of the time, place, and ideally, the nature and size of impending activity. A prediction usually covers a shorter time period than a forecast and is generally based dominantly on interpretations and measurements of ongoing processes and secondarily on a projection of past history. The three types of statements grade from one to another, and distinctions are sometimes arbitrary. Forecasts and predictions at Mount St. Helens became increasingly precise from 1975 to 1982. Stratigraphic studies led to a long-range forecast in 1975 of renewed eruptive activity at Mount St. Helens, possibly before the end of the century. On the basis of seismic, geodetic and geologic data, general forecasts for a landslide and eruption were issued in April 1980, before the catastrophic blast and landslide on 18 May 1980. All extrusions except two from June 1980 to the end of 1984 were predicted on the basis of integrated geophysical, geochemical, and geologic monitoring. The two extrusions that were not predicted were preceded by explosions that removed a substantial part of the dome, reducing confining pressure and essentially short-circuiting the normal precursors.

Amplification of Seismic Waves by the Seattle Basin, Washington State

Recordings of the 1999 M w 7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake, two local earthquakes, and five blasts show seismic-wave amplification over a large sedimentary basin in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. For weak ground motions from the Chi-Chi earthquake, the Seattle basin amplified 0.2- to 0.8-Hz waves by factors of 8 to 16 relative to bedrock sites west of the basin. The amplification and peak frequency change during the Chi-Chi coda: the initial S -wave arrivals (0–30 sec) had maximum amplifications of 12 at 0.5–0.8 Hz, whereas later arrivals (35–65 sec) reached amplifications of 16 at 0.3–0.5 Hz. Analysis of local events in the 1.0- to 10.0-Hz frequency range show fourfold amplifications for 1.0-Hz weak ground motion over the Seattle basin. Amplifications decrease as frequencies increase above 1.0 Hz, with frequencies above 7 Hz showing lower amplitudes over the basin than at bedrock sites. Modeling shows that resonance in low-impedance deposits forming the upper 550 m of the basin beneath our profile could cause most of the observed amplification, and the larger amplification at later arrival times suggests surface waves also play a substantial role. These results emphasize the importance of shallow deposits in determining ground motions over large basins.