Stephen F. Corfidi

Cold Pools and MCS Propagation: Forecasting the Motion of Downwind-Developing MCSs

The primary factors that affect the direction of propagation and overall movement of surface-based mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are discussed. It is shown that although propagation is indeed related to the strength and direction of the low-level jet as previous studies have shown, it is more specifically dependent upon the degree of cold-pool-relative flow and to the distribution of conditional instability present along a system’s gust front. An updated technique that may be used to forecast the short-term (3‐6 h) motion of MCS centroids based on these concepts is introduced. The procedure builds on the long-established observation that MCS motion is a function of 1) the advection of existing cells by the mean wind and 2) the propagation of new convection relative to existing storms. Observed wind and thermodynamic data, in conjunction with anticipated cold-pool motion and orientation, are used to assess the speed and direction of cell propagation, that is, whether propagation will be upwind, downwind, or some combination of the two. The technique ultimately yields an estimate of overall system movement and has application regardless of scale, season, or synoptic regime.

Discrimination of Mesoscale Convective System Environments Using Sounding Observations

Abstract The prediction of the strength of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is a major concern to operational meteorologists and the public. To address this forecast problem, this study examines meteorological variables derived from sounding observations taken in the environment of quasi-linear MCSs. A set of 186 soundings that sampled the beginning and mature stages of the MCSs are categorized by their production of severe surface winds into weak, severe, and derecho-producing MCSs. Differences in the variables among these three MCS categories are identified and discussed. Mean low- to upper-level wind speeds and deep-layer vertical wind shear, especially the component perpendicular to the convective line, are excellent discriminators among all three categories. Low-level inflow relative to the system is found to be an excellent discriminator, largely because of the strong relationship of system severity to system speed. Examination of the mean wind and shear vectors relative to MCS motion suggests th...

Forecasting the Maintenance of Quasi-Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract The problem of forecasting the maintenance of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is investigated through an examination of observed proximity soundings. Furthermore, environmental variables that are statistically different between mature and weakening MCSs are input into a logistic regression procedure to develop probabilistic guidance on MCS maintenance, focusing on warm-season quasi-linear systems that persist for several hours. Between the mature and weakening MCSs, shear vector magnitudes over very deep layers are the best discriminators among hundreds of kinematic and thermodynamic variables. An analysis of the shear profiles reveals that the shear component perpendicular to MCS motion (usually parallel to the leading line) accounts for much of this difference in low levels and the shear component parallel to MCS motion accounts for much of this difference in mid- to upper levels. The lapse rates over a significant portion of the convective cloud layer, the convective available potential en...

A five-year climatology of elevated severe convective storms in the united states east of the rocky mountains

Abstract A 5-yr climatology of elevated severe convective storms was constructed for 1983–87 east of the Rocky Mountains. Potential cases were selected by finding severe storm reports on the cold side of surface fronts. Of the 1826 days during the 5-yr period, 1689 (91%) had surface fronts east of the Rockies. Of the 1689 days with surface fronts, 129 (8%) were associated with elevated severe storm cases. Of the 1066 severe storm reports associated with the 129 elevated severe storm cases, 624 (59%) were hail reports, 396 (37%) were wind reports, and 46 (4%) were tornado reports. A maximum of elevated severe storm cases occurred in May with a secondary maximum in September. Elevated severe storm cases vary geographically throughout the year, with a maximum over the south-central United States in winter to a central and eastern U.S. maximum in spring and summer. A diurnal maximum of elevated severe storm cases occurred at 2100 UTC, which coincided with the diurnal maximum of hail reports. The wind reports ...

Elevated Convection and Castellanus: Ambiguities, Significance, and Questions

Abstract The term elevated convection is used to describe convection where the constituent air parcels originate from a layer above the planetary boundary layer. Because elevated convection can produce severe hail, damaging surface wind, and excessive rainfall in places well removed from strong surface-based instability, situations with elevated storms can be challenging for forecasters. Furthermore, determining the source of air parcels in a given convective cloud using a proximity sounding to ascertain whether the cloud is elevated or surface based would appear to be trivial. In practice, however, this is often not the case. Compounding the challenges in understanding elevated convection is that some meteorologists refer to a cloud formation known as castellanus synonymously as a form of elevated convection. Two different definitions of castellanus exist in the literature—one is morphologically based (cloud formations that develop turreted or cumuliform shapes on their upper surfaces) and the other is p...

Environment and Early Evolution of the 8 May 2009 Derecho-Producing Convective System

AbstractThis study documents the complex environment and early evolution of the remarkable derecho that traversed portions of the central United States on 8 May 2009. Central to this study is the comparison of the 8 May 2009 derecho environment to that of other mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that occurred in the central United States during a similar time of year. Synoptic-scale forcing was weak and thermodynamic instability was limited during the development of the initial convection, but several mesoscale features of the environment appeared to contribute to initiation and upscale growth, including a mountain wave, a midlevel jet streak, a weak midlevel vorticity maximum, a “Denver cyclone,” and a region of upper-tropospheric inertial instability.The subsequent MCS developed in an environment with an unusually strong and deep low-level jet (LLJ), which transported exceptionally high amounts of low-level moisture northward very rapidly, destabilized the lower troposphere, and enhanced frontogenetica...

Views on Applying RKW Theory: An Illustration Using the 8 May 2009 Derecho-Producing Convective System

AbstractThis work presents an analysis of the vertical wind shear during the early stages of the remarkable 8 May 2009 central U.S. derecho-producing convective system. Comments on applying Rotunno–Klemp–Weisman (RKW) theory to mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) of this type also are provided. During the formative stages of the MCS, the near-surface-based shear vectors ahead of the leading convective line varied with time, location, and depth, but the line-normal component of the shear in any layer below 3 km ahead of where the strong bow echo developed was relatively small (6–9 m s−1). Concurrently, the midlevel (3–6 km) line-normal shear component had magnitudes mostly >10 m s−1 throughout.In a previous companion paper, it was hypothesized that an unusually strong and expansive low-level jet led to dramatic changes in instability, shear, and forced ascent over mesoscale areas. These mesoscale effects may have overwhelmed the interactions between the cold pool and low-level shear that modulate system st...

Revisiting the 3–4 April 1974 Super Outbreak of Tornadoes

Abstract The Super Outbreak of tornadoes over the central and eastern United States on 3–4 April 1974 remains the most outstanding severe convective weather episode on record in the continental United States. The outbreak far surpassed previous and succeeding events in severity, longevity, and extent. In this paper, surface, upper-air, radar, and satellite data are used to provide an updated synoptic and subsynoptic overview of the event. Emphasis is placed on identifying the major factors that contributed to the development of the three main convective bands associated with the outbreak, and on identifying the conditions that may have contributed to the outstanding number of intense and long-lasting tornadoes. Selected output from a 29-km, 50-layer version of the Eta forecast model, a version similar to that available operationally in the mid-1990s, also is presented to help depict the evolution of thermodynamic stability during the event.

The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center

Abstract An overview of the birth and development of the National Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center, formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, is presented. While the center’s immediate history dates to the middle of the twentieth century, the nation’s first centralized severe weather forecast effort actually appeared much earlier with the pioneering work of Army Signal Corps officer J. P. Finley in the 1870s. Little progress was made in the understanding or forecasting of severe convective weather after Finley until the nascent aviation industry fostered an interest in meteorology in the 1920s. Despite the increased attention, forecasts for tornadoes remained a rarity until Air Force forecasters E. J. Fawbush and R. C. Miller gained notoriety by correctly forecasting the second tornado to strike Tinker Air Force Base in one week on 25 March 1948. The success of this and later Fawbush and Miller efforts led the Weather Bureau (predecessor to the National Weather Service) to est...

Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak

Abstract Forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) were faced with many challenges during the 3 May 1999 tornado outbreak. Operational numerical forecast models valid during the outbreak gave inaccurate, inconsistent, and/or ambiguous guidance to forecasters, most notably with varying convective precipitation forecasts and underforecast wind speeds in the middle and upper troposphere, which led forecasters (in the early convective outlooks) to expect a substantially reduced tornado threat as compared with what was observed. That, combined with relatively weak forecast and observed low-level convergence along a dryline, contributed to much uncertainty regarding timing and location of convective initiation. As a consequence, as the event approached, observational diagnosis and analysis became more important and were critical in identification of the evolution of the outbreak. Tornadic supercells ultimately developed earlier, were more numerous, and produced more significant tornadoes than anticipated...