Stephen Frankel

Birthweight, body-mass index in middle age, and incident coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND Several studies have shown a relation between fetal development, as shown by birthweight, and later coronary heart disease. This study investigated whether this relation is predominantly the consequence of early life exposures, or can best be explained in terms of an interaction between influences in early life and in adulthood. METHODS This prospective study in Caerphilly, South Wales, included 1258 men, aged 45-59 at initial screening, who were able to provide birthweight data. These men are from an initial cohort of 2512 men, from whom information has been obtained in a series of examinations since 1979 on health-related behaviours, incidence of coronary heart disease, and risk factors. The main outcome measure was fatal and non-fatal coronary heart disease during 10 years of follow-up. FINDINGS Higher birthweight was related to lower risk of coronary heart disease during the follow-up period: coronary heart disease occurred in 46 (11.6%) men in the lowest birthweight tertile, 44 (12.0%) of those in the middle tertile, and 38 (9.1%) of those in the highest tertile (p = 0.03). Stratification of the cohort by body-mass index (BMI) revealed a significant interaction such that the inverse association between birthweight and risk of coronary heart disease was restricted to men in the top tertile of BMI (interaction test p = 0.048 adjusted for age, and p = 0.012 fully adjusted). Within the top BMI tertile, coronary heart disease occurred in 19 (16.4%) of men in the lowest birthweight tertile, 13 (12.6%) of those in the middle tertile, and 13 (7.5%) of those in the highest tertile (p = 0.0005). These associations were not changed substantially by adjustment for age, fathers social class, own social class, marital status, fibrinogen and cholesterol concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and smoking history. INTERPRETATION The association between birthweight and risk of coronary heart disease cannot be explained by associations with childhood or adulthood socioeconomic status. Nor do conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in adulthood account for the association. However, there is an important interaction between birthweight and BMI such that the increased risk of coronary heart disease associated with low birthweight is restricted to people who have high BMI in adulthood. Risk of coronary heart disease seems to be defined by the combined effect of early-life and later-life exposures.

Prevention of suicide: aspirations and evidence

The Health of the Nation white paper set a target for 15% reduction in overall suicide rates by the year 2000. If the targets are to be achieved interventions must be identified which are of proved effectiveness. This paper examines the evidence on the available interventions and points of access to the population at risk. No single intervention has been shown in a well conducted randomised controlled trial to reduce suicide. The greatest potential seems to arise from limiting the availability of methods. In particular it is likely that the introduction of the catalytic convertor will lead to reduced lethality of care exhausts and reductions in suicide using this method. General practitioner education programmes, the effectiveness of lithium and maintenance antidepressants, and limits on the quantity of medicines available over the counter or on prescription should all be evaluated. Particular high risk groups include people recently discharged from psychiatric hospitals and those with a history of parasuicide. Many social processes affect suicide rates and these rather than specific interventions may help or hinder the ability to realise the Health of the Nation targets. Well conducted trials are essential to distinguish complex social processes from the effects of specific interventions for suicide prevention. This review of the available evidence offers little support for the aspiration that the posited targets can be achieved on the basis of current knowledge and current policy.

Reporting on quality of life in randomised controlled trials : bibliographic study

Objectives : To examine the frequency and quality of reporting on quality of life in randomised controlled trials. Design : Search of the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register 1980 to 1997 to identify trials from all disciplines, from oncology, and from cardiovascular medicine that reported on quality of life. Assessment of abstracts from articles published from 1993 to 1996. Assessment of a sample of full reports with a standardised instrument. Main outcome measures : Prevalence of reporting on quality of life. Conditions and interventions studied in trials reporting on quality of life. Quality of reporting on quality of life. Results : During 1980-97 reporting on quality of life increased from 0.63% to 4.2% for trials from all disciplines, from 1.5% to 8.2% for cancer trials, and from 0.34% to 3.6% for cardiovascular trials. Of 364 abstracts, 65% reported on drug interventions. Of a sample of 67 full reports, authors of 48 (72%) used 62 established quality of life instruments. In 15 reports (22%) authors developed their own measures, and in 2 (3%) methods were unclear. Response rates were given in 38 (57%), and complete reporting on all items and scales occurred in 31 (46%) Conclusions : Less than 5% of all randomised controlled trials reported on quality of life, and this proportion was below 10% even for cancer trials. A plethora of instruments was used in different studies, and the reporting of methods and results was often inadequate. Standards for the measurement and reporting of quality of life in clinical trials research need to be developed.

Fruit, vegetables, and antioxidants in childhood and risk of adult cancer: the Boyd Orr cohort

Study objective: To examine associations between food and nutrient intake, measured in childhood, and adult cancer in a cohort with over 60 years follow up. Design and setting: The study is based on the Boyd Orr cohort. Intake of fruit and vegetables, energy, vitamins C and E, carotene, and retinol was assessed from seven day household food inventories carried out during a study of family diet and health in 16 rural and urban areas of England and Scotland in 1937–39. Participants: 4999 men and women, from largely working class backgrounds, who had been children in the households participating in the pre-war survey. Analyses are based on 3878 traced subjects with full data on diet and social circumstances. Main results: Over the follow up period there were 483 incident malignant neoplasms. Increased childhood fruit intake was associated with reduced risk of incident cancer. In fully adjusted logistic regression models, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) with increasing quartiles of fruit consumption were 1.0 (reference), 0.66 (0.48 to 0.90), 0.70 (0.51 to 0.97), 0.62 (0.43 to 0.90); p value for linear trend=0.02. The association was weaker for cancer mortality. There was no clear pattern of association between the other dietary factors and total cancer risk. Conclusions: Childhood fruit consumption may have a long term protective effect on cancer risk in adults. Further prospective studies, with individual measures of diet are required to further elucidate these relations.

Childhood leg length and adult mortality: follow up of the Carnegie (Boyd Orr) Survey of Diet and Health in Pre-war Britain.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relation between childhood height, its components--leg length and trunk length--and mortality in adulthood. DESIGN: Cohort study based on the Carnegie (Boyd Orr) Survey of diet and health in pre-war Britain, 1937-9. SETTING: The 14 centres in England and Scotland that participated in the Carnegie Survey and where children were examined. Scottish centres: Aberdeen, Dundee, West Wemyss, Coaltown of Wemyss, Hopeman, Methlick, Tarves, Barthol Chapel. English Centres: Liverpool, York-shire, Barrow in Furness, Wisbech, Fulham, and Bethnal Green. SUBJECTS: 2990 boys and girls aged between 2 years and 14 years 9 months when they were examined in 1937-9. These children were drawn from 1134 families who underwent a one week assessment of family diet and home circumstances. Of these, 2547 (85%) have been traced and flagged using the NHS Central Register. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age adjusted overall, coronary heart disease, and cancer mortality in men and women in relation to age and sex specific z scores for height, leg length, and trunk length. All analyses were adjusted for the possible confounding effects of childhood and adult socioeconomic circumstances and childhood diet. RESULTS: Leg length was the component of childhood height most strongly associated with socioeconomic and dietary exposures. There was no significant relation between childhood height and overall mortality. Height-mortality relations were observed in relation to both coronary heart disease (CHD) and cancer. Leg length was the component of height most strongly related to cause specific mortality. In men and women CHD mortality increased with decreasing childhood leg length. Men in the lowest leg length quintile had a relative risk (RR) of 2.5 (95% CI 1.0 to 6.2) compared to those with the longest legs (linear trend p = 0.14). Similarly, women in the lowest leg length quintile had a RR of 3.9 (95% CI 0.8 to 19.0; linear trend p < 0.01). Adjustment for childhood and adult socioeconomic circumstances had little effect on these trends. In men, but not women, those who as children had long legs experienced increased cancer mortality. The significant relations between anthropometry and both CHD and cancer mortality were restricted to those aged < 8 years when measured. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that adverse diet and living conditions in childhood, for which leg length seems to be a particularly sensitive indicator, are associated with increased risk of CHD in adulthood and possibly reduced cancer risk. It is likely that these influences operate after birth, during the first few years of life.

Why are suicide rates rising in young men but falling in the elderly?-- a time-series analysis of trends in England and Wales 1950-1998

Suicide rates doubled in males aged <45 in England and Wales between 1950 and 1998, in contrast rates declined in older males and females of all ages. Explanations for these divergent trends are largely speculative, but social changes are likely to have played an important role. We undertook a time-series analysis using routinely available age- and sex-specific suicide, social, economic and health data, focussing on the two age groups in which trends have diverged most-25-34 and 60+ year olds. Between 1950 and 1998 there were unfavourable trends in many of the risk factors for suicide: rises in divorce, unemployment and substance misuse and declines in births and marriage. Whilst economic prosperity has increased, so too has income inequality. Trends in suicide risk factors were generally similar in both age-sex groups, although the rises in divorce and markers of substance misuse were most marked in 25-34 year olds and young males experienced the lowest rise in antidepressant prescribing. Statistical modelling indicates that no single factor can be identified as underlying recent trends. The factors most consistently associated with the rises in young male suicide are increases in divorce, declines in marriage and increases in income inequality. These changes have had little effect on suicide in young females. This may be because the drugs commonly used in overdose-their favoured method of suicide-have become less toxic or because they are less affected by the factors underlying the rise in male suicide. In older people declines in suicide were associated with increases in gross domestic product, the size of the female workforce, marriage and the prescribing of antidepressants. Recent population trends in suicide appear to be associated with by a range of social and health related factors. It is possible that some of the patterns observed are due to declining levels of social integration, but such effects do not appear to have adversely influenced patterns in older generations.

Deprivation and cause specific morbidity: evidence from the Somerset and Avon survey of health

Abstract Objective: To investigate the association between cause specific morbidity and deprivation in order to inform the debates on inequalities in health and health services resource allocation. Design: Cross sectional postal questionnaire survey ascertaining self reported health status, with validation of a 20% sample through general practitioner and hospital records. Setting: Inner city, urban, and rural areas of Avon and Somerset. Subjects: Stratified random sample of 28080 people aged 35 and over from 40 general practices. Main outcome measures: Age and sex standardised prevalence of various diseases; Townsend deprivation scores were assigned by linking postcodes to enumeration districts. Relative indices of inequality were calculated to estimate the magnitude of the association between socioeconomic position and morbidity. Results: The response rate was 85.3%. The prevalence of most of the conditions rose with increasing material deprivation. The relative index of inequality, for both sexes combined, was greater than 1 for all conditions except diabetes. The conditions most strongly associated with deprivation were diabetic eye disease (relative index of inequality 3.21; 95% confidence interval 1.84 to 5.59), emphysema (2.72; 1.67 to 4.43) and bronchitis (2.27; 1.92 to 2.68). The relative index of inequality was significantly higher in women for asthma (P<0.05) and in men for depression (P<0.01). The mean reporting of prevalent conditions was 1.07 for the most deprived fifth of respondents and 0.77 in the most affluent fifth (P<0.001). Conclusions: Material deprivation is strongly linked with many common diseases. NHS resource allocation should be modified to reflect such morbidity differentials. Key messages Key messages The relative index of inequality is a useful tool for analysing self reported morbidity and informing debates on inequalities in health Diabetic eye disease, bronchitis, and emphysema are most closely associated with deprivation Broader socioenvironmental factors may also be implicated and merit increased attention The heavy burden of disease in the most deprived groups, particularly among elderly people, warrants attention in planning of the health service and resource allocation

Screening for Prostate Cancer

Scientific studies have found no consistent correlation of prostate cancer with diet, venereal disease, sexual habits, smoking, or occupational exposure. However, there does seem to be correlation with higher serum testosterone levels. It also appears that there may be a familial tendency for the development of prostate cancer, although no chromosomal abnormalities have been discovered that can predict whether or not an individual will develop prostate cancer.

Childhood energy intake and adult mortality from cancer: the boyd orr cohort study

Abstract Objective: To examine the relation between energy intake in childhood and adult mortality from cancer. Study design: Cohort study. Setting: 16 rural and urban centres in England and Scotland. Subjects: 3834 people who took part in Lord Boyd Orrs Carnegie survey of family diet and health in prewar Britain between 1937 and 1939 who were followed up with the NHS central register. Standardised methods were used to measure household dietary intake during a one week period. Main outcome measures: Cancer mortality. Results: Significant associations between childhood energy intake and cancer mortality were seen when the confounding effects of social variables were taken into account in proportional hazards models (relative hazard for all cancer mortality 1.15 (95% confidence interval 1.06 to 1.24), P=0.001, for every MJ increase in adult equivalent daily intake in fully adjusted models). This effect was essentially limited to cancers not related to smoking (relative hazard 1.20; 1.07 to 1.34; P=0.001), with similar effects seen in men and women. Conclusion: This positive association between childhood energy intake and later cancer is consistent with animal evidence linking energy restriction with reduced incidence of cancer and the association between height and human cancer, implying that higher levels of energy intake in childhood increase the risk of later development of cancer. This evidence for long term effects of early diet confirm the importance of optimal nutrition in childhood and suggest that the unfavourable trends seen in the incidence of some cancers may have their origins in early life. Key messages Animal studies have shown that energy restriction results in a reduced risk of cancer. Some cancers are more common in taller people, suggesting that the same effect may be important in humans The association between diet in childhood and later cancer was examined on the basis of detailed dietary data collected from a cohort of children in the late 1930s A positive association emerged between childhood energy intake and later cancer (other than cancer related to smoking), once adjustment for socioeconomic variables had been made This evidence for long term effects of early diet confirms the importance of optimal childhood nutrition by implying that higher levels of energy intake in childhood increase the risk of the later development of cancer

Smoking and Ill Health: Does Lay Epidemiology Explain the Failure of Smoking Cessation Programs Among Deprived Populations?

The resistance of disadvantaged groups to anti-smoking advice is remarkable. In relation to the study of differing cultures, there is a long-standing academic tradition assuming that behavior that may otherwise be difficult to understand is indeed rational within particular cultural contexts. Persistent smoking among the most deprived members of society may represent a rational response to their life chances informed by a lay epidemiology. Health promotion initiatives designed to reduce smoking among members of these groups may continue to fail unless the general health and life chances of such individuals are first improved.