Stephen T. Garner

Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.

Stormy Weather One of the most active questions about the effects of global warming is whether, and how, it might affect the frequency and the strength of hurricanes. Some studies have suggested that warming will bring fewer, and less energetic, hurricanes, while others have claimed that we can expect more intense storms. Bender et al. (p. 454; see the news story by Kerr) explore the influence of global warming on hurricane dynamics over the Atlantic Ocean with a state-of-the-art hurricane prediction model. The model predicts that the annual total number of hurricanes in the 21st century will be less than now, but also that the number of the most intense storms per year will increase. The largest increase of the most intense hurricane frequency is predicted in the western Atlantic, which suggests that Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Southeast coast of the United States could be at greater risk. Global warming may increase the frequency of intense hurricanes in the western Atlantic region during the 21st century. Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.

Surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics

The dynamics of quasi-geostrophic flow with uniform potential vorticity reduces to the evolution of buoyancy, or potential temperature, on horizontal boundaries. There is a formal resemblance to two-dimensional flow, with surface temperature playing the role of vorticity, but a different relationship between the flow and the advected scalar creates several distinctive features. A series of examples are described which highlight some of these features: the evolution of an elliptical vortex; the start-up vortex shed by flow over a mountain; the instability of temperature filaments; the ‘edge wave’ critical layer; and mixing in an overturning edge wave. Characteristics of the direct cascade of the tracer variance to small scales in homogeneous turbulence, as well as the inverse energy cascade, are also described. In addition to its geophysical relevance, the ubiquitous generation of secondary instabilities and the possibility of finite-time collapse make this system a potentially important, numerically tractable, testbed for turbulence theories.

Simulation of the Recent Multidecadal Increase of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using an 18-km-Grid Regional Model

In this study, a new modeling framework for simulating Atlantic hurricane activity is introduced. The model is an 18-km-grid nonhydrostatic regional model, run over observed specified SSTs and nudged toward observed time-varying large-scale atmospheric conditions (Atlantic domain wavenumbers 0–2) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Using this “perfect large-scale model” approach for 27 recent August–October seasons (1980–2006), it is found that the model successfully reproduces the observed multidecadal increase in numbers of Atlantic hurricanes and several other tropical cyclone (TC) indices over this period. The correlation of simulated versus observed hurricane activity by year varies from 0.87 for basinwide hurricane counts to 0.41 for U.S. landfalling hurricanes. For tropical storm count, accumulated cyclone energy, and TC power dissipation indices the correlation is ~0.75, for major hurricanes the correlation is 0.69, and for U.S. landfalling tropical st...

Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-Based Scenarios

AbstractTwenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model are further downscaled into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model (9-km inner grid spacing, with ocean coupling) to simulate intense hurricanes at a finer resolution.A significant reduction in tropical storm frequency is projected for the CMIP3 ...

Nucleation Processes in Deep Convection Simulated by a Cloud-System-Resolving Model with Double-Moment Bulk Microphysics

A novel type of limited double-moment scheme for bulk microphysics is presented here for cloud-systemresolving models (CSRMs). It predicts the average size of cloud droplets and crystals, which is important for representing the radiative impact of clouds on the climate system. In this new scheme, there are interactive components for ice nuclei (IN) and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). For cloud ice, the processes of primary ice nucleation, Hallett–Mossop (HM) multiplication of ice particles (secondary ice production), and homogeneous freezing of aerosols and droplets provide the source of ice number. The preferential evaporation of smaller droplets during homogeneous freezing of cloud liquid is represented for the first time. Primary and secondary (i.e., in cloud) droplet nucleation are also represented, by predicting the supersaturation as a function of the vertical velocity and local properties of cloud liquid. A linearized scheme predicts the supersaturation, explicitly predicting rates of condensation and vapor deposition onto liquid (cloud liquid, rain) and ice (cloud ice, snow, graupel) species. The predicted supersaturation becomes the input for most nucleation processes, including homogeneous aerosol freezing and secondary droplet activation. Comparison of the scheme with available aircraft and satellite data is performed for two cases of deep convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. Sensitivity tests are performed with respect to a range of nucleation processes. The HM process of ice particle multiplication has an important impact on the domain-wide ice concentration in the lower half of the mixed-phase region, especially when a lack of upper-level cirrus suppresses homogeneous freezing. Homogeneous freezing of droplets and, especially, aerosols is found to be the key control on number and sizes of cloud particles in the simulated cloud ensemble. Preferential evaporation of smaller droplets during homogeneous freezing produces a major impact on ice concentrations aloft. Aerosols originating from the remote free troposphere become activated in deep convective updrafts and produce most of the supercooled cloud droplets that freeze homogeneously aloft. Homogeneous aerosol freezing is found to occur only in widespread regions of weak ascent while homogeneous droplet freezing is restricted to deep convective updrafts. This means that homogeneous aerosol freezing can produce many more crystals than homogeneous droplet freezing, if conditions in the upper troposphere are favorable. These competing mechanisms of homogeneous freezing determine the overall response of the ice concentration to environmental CCN concentrations in the simulated cloud ensemble. The corresponding sensitivity with respect to environmental IN concentrations is much lower. Nevertheless, when extremely high concentrations of IN are applied, that are typical for plumes of desert dust, the supercooled cloud liquid is completely eliminated in the upper half of the mixed phase region. This shuts down the process of homogeneous droplet freezing.

The Role of Momentum Fluxes in Shaping the Life Cycle of a Baroclinic Wave

The wide disparities in baroclinic wave development between spherical and Cartesian geometry are investigated with the purpose of assessing the role of the eddy momentum fluxes. Differences are already significant at the linear stage, as momentum fluxes are predominantly poleward in spherical geometry and predominantly equatorward in Cartesian geometry. More important, the low-level flux convergence is displaced poleward on the sphere and equatorward on the plane. On the sphere, these circumstances lead to rapid poleward movement of the low-level zonal-mean jet. The anticyclonic horizontal shear region expands as the jet feeds back on the momentum flux. The wave breaks anticyclonically and quickly zonalizes. In the Cartesian life cycle, the equatorward displacement of the flux convergence is counteracted by the mean meridional circulation and there is consequently a weaker feedback with the horizontal shear. The wave breaks, in this case cyclonically, but then takes much longer to zonalize. On the sphere, the angular velocity gradient in uniform westerly or easterly flow adds a separate mechanism for converting eddy kinetic energy to zonal mean, further hastening the zonalization process. It is possible to change the sign of the eddy momentum flux and the sense of the breaking in either geometry by slightly changing the basic flow. For example, cyclonic roll-up on the sphere can be obtained by adding weak cyclonic barotropic shear, as highlighted in a recently published study. Similarly, the addition of anticyclonic barotropic shear in a Cartesian simulation leads to anticyclonic wave breaking. An easterly jet on the sphere allows cyclonic breaking, but the wave still zonalizes rapidly, as in the case of a westerly jet. The persistence of the nonlinear eddies in these diverse experiments is not well correlated with the minimum value of the refractive index for Rossby waves, as suggested in the referenced study. It is proposed that the longevity of residual vortices after wave breaking is determined not by the sign of the vorticity or the breadth of the waveguide, but by the sign of the momentum flux and the geometry of the model.

The roles of wind shear and thermal stratification in past and projected changes of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclone activity has trended upward in recent decades. The increase coincides with favorable changes in local sea surface temperature and other environmental indices, principally associated with vertical shear and the thermodynamic profile. The relative importance of these environmental factors has not been firmly established. A recent study using a high-resolution dynamical downscaling model has captured both the trend and interannual variations in Atlantic storm frequency with considerable fidelity. In the present work, this downscaling framework is used to assess the importance of the large-scale thermodynamic environment relative to other factors influencing Atlantic tropical storms. Separate assessments are done for the recent multidecadal trend (1980–2006) and a model-projected global warming environment for the late 21st century. For the multidecadal trend, changes in the seasonal-mean thermodynamic environment (sea surface temperature and atmospheric temperature profile ...

A Topographic Drag Closure Built on an Analytical Base Flux

Abstract Topographic drag schemes depend on grid-scale representations of the average height, width, and orientation of the subgrid topography. Until now, these representations have been based on a combination of statistics and dimensional analysis. However, under certain physical assumptions, linear analysis provides the exact amplitude and orientation of the drag for arbitrary topography. The author proposes a computationally practical closure based on this analysis. Also proposed is a nonlinear correction for nonpropagating base flux. This is patterned after existing schemes but is better constrained to match the linear solution because it assumes a correlation between mountain height and width. When the correction is interpreted as a formula for the transition to saturation in the wave train, it also provides a way of estimating the vertical distribution of the momentum forcing. The explicit subgrid height distribution causes a natural broadening of the layers experiencing the forcing. Linear drag due...

Boundary Effects in Potential Vorticity Dynamics

Many aspects of geophysical flows can be described compactly in terms of potential vorticity dynamics. Since potential temperature can fluctuate at boundaries, however, the boundary conditions for potential vorticity dynamics are inhomogeneous, which complicates considerations of potential vorticity dynamics when boundary effects are dynamically significant. A formulation of potential vorticity dynamics is presented that encompasses boundary effects. It is shown that, for arbitrary flows, the generalization of the potential vorticity concept to a sum of the conventional interior potential vorticity and a singular surface potential vorticity allows one to replace the inhomogeneous boundary conditions for potential vorticity dynamics by simpler homogeneous boundary conditions (of constant potential temperature). Functional forms of the surface potential vorticity are derived from field equations in which the potential vorticity and a potential vorticity flux appear as sources of flow quantities in the same way in which an electric charge and an electric current appear as sources of fields in electrodynamics. For the generalized potential vorticity of flows that need be neither balanced nor hydrostatic and that can be influenced by diabatic processes and friction, a conservation law holds that is similar to the conservation law for the conventional interior potential vorticity. The conservation law for generalized potential vorticity contains, in the quasigeostrophic limit, the well-known dual relationship between fluctuations of potential temperature at boundaries and fluctuations of potential vorticity in the interior of quasigeostrophic flows. A nongeostrophic effect described by the conservation law is the induction of generalized potential vorticity by baroclinicity at boundaries, an effect that plays a role, for example, in mesoscale flows past topographic obstacles. Based on the generalized potential vorticity concept, a theory is outlined of how a wake with lee vortices can form in weakly dissipative flows past a mountain. Theoretical considerations and an analysis of a simulation show that a wake with lee vortices can form by separation of a generalized potential vorticity sheet from the mountain surface, similar to the separation of a friction-induced vorticity sheet from an obstacle, except that the generalized potential vorticity sheet can be induced by baroclinicity at the surface.

Simulations of the Present and Late-Twenty-First-Century Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity Using a Regional Model

AbstractA high-resolution regional atmospheric model is used to simulate present-day western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) activity and to investigate the projected changes for the late twenty-first century. Compared to observations, the model can realistically simulate many basic features of the WNP TC activity climatology, such as the TC genesis location, track, and lifetime. A number of spatial and temporal features of observed TC interannual variability are captured, although observed variations in basinwide TC number are not. A relatively well-simulated feature is the contrast of years when the Asian summer monsoon trough extends eastward (retreats westward), more (fewer) TCs form within the southeastern quadrant of the WNP, and the corresponding TC activity is above (below) normal over most parts of the WNP east of 125°E. Future projections with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) A1B scenario show a weak tendency for decreases in the number of WNP TCs, and for incr...