Morris A. Bender

Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.

Stormy Weather One of the most active questions about the effects of global warming is whether, and how, it might affect the frequency and the strength of hurricanes. Some studies have suggested that warming will bring fewer, and less energetic, hurricanes, while others have claimed that we can expect more intense storms. Bender et al. (p. 454; see the news story by Kerr) explore the influence of global warming on hurricane dynamics over the Atlantic Ocean with a state-of-the-art hurricane prediction model. The model predicts that the annual total number of hurricanes in the 21st century will be less than now, but also that the number of the most intense storms per year will increase. The largest increase of the most intense hurricane frequency is predicted in the western Atlantic, which suggests that Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and the Southeast coast of the United States could be at greater risk. Global warming may increase the frequency of intense hurricanes in the western Atlantic region during the 21st century. Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.

Real-Case Simulations of Hurricane–Ocean Interaction Using A High-Resolution Coupled Model: Effects on Hurricane Intensity

In order to investigate the effect of tropical cyclone‐ocean interaction on the intensity of observed hurricanes, the GFDL movable triply nested mesh hurricane model was coupled with a high-resolution version of the Princeton Ocean Model. The ocean model had 1 /68 uniform resolution, which matched the horizontal resolution of the hurricane model in its innermost grid. Experiments were run with and without inclusion of the coupling for two cases of Hurricane Opal (1995) and one case of Hurricane Gilbert (1988) in the Gulf of Mexico and two cases each of Hurricanes Felix (1995) and Fran (1996) in the western Atlantic. The results confirmed the conclusions suggested by the earlier idealized studies that the cooling of the sea surface induced by the tropical cyclone will have a significant impact on the intensity of observed storms, particularly for slow moving storms where the SST decrease is greater. In each of the seven forecasts, the ocean coupling led to substantial improvements in the prediction of storm intensity measured by the storm’s minimum sea level pressure. Without the effect of coupling the GFDL model incorrectly forecasted 25-hPa deepening of Gilbert as it moved across the Gulf of Mexico. With the coupling included, the model storm deepened only 10 hPa, which was much closer to the observed amount of 4 hPa. Similarly, during the period that Opal moved very slowly in the southern Gulf of Mexico, the coupled model produced a large SST decrease northwest of the Yucatan and slow deepening consistent with the observations. The uncoupled model using the initial NCEP SSTs predicted rapid deepening of 58 hPa during the same period. Improved intensity prediction was achieved both for Hurricanes Felix and Fran in the western Atlantic. For the case of Hurricane Fran, the coarse resolution of the NCEP SST analysis could not resolve Hurricane Edouard’s wake, which was produced when Edouard moved in nearly an identical path to Fran four days earlier. As a result, the operational GFDL forecast using the operational SSTs and without coupling incorrectly forecasted 40-hPa deepening while Fran remained at nearly constant intensity as it crossed the wake. When the coupled model was run with Edouard’s cold wake generated by imposing hurricane wind forcing during the ocean initialization, the intensity prediction was significantly improved. The model also correctly predicted the rapid deepening that occurred as Fran began to move away from the cold wake. These results suggest the importance of an accurate initial SST analysis as well as the inclusion of the ocean coupling, for accurate hurricane intensity prediction with a dynamical model. Recently, the GFDL hurricane‐ocean coupled model used in these case studies was run on 163 forecasts during the 1995‐98 seasons. Improved intensity forecasts were again achieved with the mean absolute error in the forecast of central pressure reduced by about 26% compared to the operational GFDL model. During the 1998 season, when the system was run in near‐real time, the coupled model improved the intensity forecasts for all storms with central pressure higher than 940 hPa although the most significant improvement (;60%) occurred in the intensity range of 960‐970 hPa. These much larger sample sets confirmed the conclusion from the case studies, that the hurricane‐ocean interaction is an important physical mechanism in the intensity of observed tropical cyclones.

An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification

Abstract A scheme is presented to improve the representation of a tropical cyclone in the initial condition of a high-resolution hurricane model. In the proposed method, a crudely resolved tropical cyclone in the large-scale analysis is replaced by a vortex that is properly specified for use in the prediction model. Appropriate filters are used to remove the vortex from the large-scale analysis so that a smooth environmental field remains. The new specified bogus vortex takes the form of a deviation from this environmental held so that it can be easily merged with the latter field at the correct position. The specified vortex consists of both axisymmetric and asymmetric components. The symmetric component is generated by the time integration of an axisymmetric version of the hurricane prediction model. This ensures dynamical and thermodynamical consistency in the vortex structure, including the moisture field, and also compatibility of the vortex with the resolution and physics of the hurricane model. In ...

Improvements in the GFDL Hurricane Prediction System

Abstract The hurricane model initialization scheme developed at GFDL was modified to improve the representation of the environmental fields in the initial condition. The filter domain defining the extent of the tropical cyclone in the global analysis is determined from the distribution of the low-level disturbance winds. The shape of the domain is generally not circular in order to minimize the removal of important nonhurricane features near the storm region. An optimum interpolation technique is used to determine the environmental fields within the filter domain. Outside of the domain, the environmental fields are identical to the original global analysis. The generation process of the realistic and model-compatible vortex has also undergone some minor modifications so that reasonable vortices are produced for various data conditions. The upgraded hurricane prediction system was tested for a number of cases and compared against the previous version and yielded an overall improvement in the forecasts of s...

Numerical simulations of tropical cyclone‐ocean interaction with a high‐resolution coupled model

The tropical cyclone-ocean interaction was investigated using a high-resolution tropical cyclone ocean coupled model. The model design consisted of the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory tropical cyclone prediction model which was coupled with a multilayer primitive equation ocean model. Coupling between the hurricane and the ocean models was carried out by passing into the ocean model the wind stress, heat, and moisture fluxes computed in the hurricane model. The new sea surface temperature (SST) calculated by the ocean model was then used in the tropical cyclone model. A set of idealized numerical experiments were performed in which a tropical cyclone vortex was embedded in both easterly and westerly basic flows of 2.5, 5, and 7.5 m s−1 with a fourth experiment run with no basic flow specified initially. The profile of the tangential wind for Hurricane Gloria at 1200 UTC 22, September 1985 was used as the initial condition of the tropical cyclone for each of the experiments. The model ocean was initially horizontally homogenous and quiescent. To clarify the impact of the ocean response to the hurricanes behavior, analogous experiments were also carried out with the SST kept constant (control cases). The experiments indicated that the cooling of the sea surface induced by the tropical cyclone resulted in a significant impact on the ultimate storm intensity due to the reduction of total heat flux directed into the tropical cyclone above the regions of decreased SST. The sea surface cooling produced by the tropical cyclones was found to be larger when the storms moved slower. In the experiments run without an initial basic flow, the maximum SST anomaly was about −5.6°C with a resulting difference in the minimum sea level pressure and maximum surface winds of 16.4 hPa and −7 m s−1, respectively. In contrast, in the experiments run with the 7.5 m s −1 basic flow, the maximum SST anomalies ranged from about 2.6° to 3.0°C with a difference in the minimum sea level pressure and maximum surface winds of about 7.3 hPa and −2.7 m s−1. The tropical cyclone-ocean coupling significantly influenced the storm track only for the case with no basic flow and the 2.5 m s−1 easterly flow. In these cases the storm with the ocean interaction turned more to the north and east (no basic flow) or the north (2.5 m s−1 easterly flow) of the experiments with constant SST. In the first case, the storm by 72 hours was located over 70 km to the east-southeast of the control case. A possible explanation for this track deviation is related to a systematic weakening of the mean tangential flow at all radii of the storm due to the interaction with the ocean and resulting alteration of the beta drift.

The Operational GFDL Coupled Hurricane–Ocean Prediction System and a Summary of Its Performance

Abstract The past decade has been marked by significant advancements in numerical weather prediction of hurricanes, which have greatly contributed to the steady decline in forecast track error. Since its operational implementation by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in 1995, the best-track model performer has been NOAA’s regional hurricane model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The purpose of this paper is to summarize the major upgrades to the GFDL hurricane forecast system since 1998. These include coupling the atmospheric component with the Princeton Ocean Model, which became operational in 2001, major physics upgrades implemented in 2003 and 2006, and increases in both the vertical resolution in 2003 and the horizontal resolution in 2002 and 2005. The paper will also report on the GFDL model performance for both track and intensity, focusing particularly on the 2003 through 2006 hurricane seasons. During this period, the GFDL track errors were the lowest of all the...

The Effect of Relative Flow on the Asymmetric Structure in the Interior of Hurricanes

Abstract Asymmetric structure of tropical cyclones simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory high-resolution triply nested movable-mesh hurricane model was analyzed. Emphasis was placed on the quasi-steady component of the asymmetric structure in the region of the eyewall. It was found that the asymmetry was primarily caused by the relative wind, that is, the flow entering and leaving the storm region relative to the moving storm. A set of idealized numerical experiments was first performed both with a constant and a variable Coriolis parameter ( f ) and the addition of basic flows that were either constant or sheared with height. Analysis was then made for one case of Hurricane Gilbert (1988) to demonstrate that the quasi-steady asymmetric structure analyzed in the idealized studies could be identified in this real data case. Vorticity analysis in the variable f experiment indicated that quasi-steady asymmetries resulted in the eyewall region through the effect of vorticity advection due to ...

The GFDL Hurricane Prediction System and Its Performance in the 1995 Hurricane Season

Abstract The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Hurricane Prediction System was adopted by the U.S. National Weather Service as an operational hurricane prediction model in the 1995 hurricane season. The framework of the prediction model is described with emphasis on its unique features. The model uses a multiply nested movable mesh system to depict the interior structure of tropical cyclones. For cumulus parameterization, a soft moist convective adjustment scheme is used. The model initial condition is defined through a method of vortex replacement. It involves generation of a realistic hurricane vortex by a scheme of controlled spinup. Time integration of the model is carried out by a two-step iterative method that has a characteristic of frequency-selective damping. The outline of the prediction system is presented and the system performance in the 1995 hurricane season is briefly summarized. Both in the Atlantic and the eastern Pacific, the average track forecast errors are substantially red...

Dynamical Downscaling Projections of Twenty-First-Century Atlantic Hurricane Activity: CMIP3 and CMIP5 Model-Based Scenarios

AbstractTwenty-first-century projections of Atlantic climate change are downscaled to explore the robustness of potential changes in hurricane activity. Multimodel ensembles using the phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3)/Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B (SRES A1B; late-twenty-first century) and phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)/representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5; early- and late-twenty-first century) scenarios are examined. Ten individual CMIP3 models are downscaled to assess the spread of results among the CMIP3 (but not the CMIP5) models. Downscaling simulations are compared for 18-km grid regional and 50-km grid global models. Storm cases from the regional model are further downscaled into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) hurricane model (9-km inner grid spacing, with ocean coupling) to simulate intense hurricanes at a finer resolution.A significant reduction in tropical storm frequency is projected for the CMIP3 ...

Improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts using the GFDL initialization system

Abstract The initialization scheme designed at GFDL to specify a more realistic initial storm structure of tropical cyclones was tested on four real data cases using the GFDL high-resolution multiply nested movable mesh hurricane model. Three of the test cases involved Hurricane Gloria (1985) in the Atlantic basin; the fourth involved Hurricane Gilbert (1988) in the Gulf of Mexico. The initialization scheme produced an initial vortex that was well adapted to the forecast model and was much more realistic in size and intensity than the storm structure obtained from the NMC T80 global analysis. As a result, the erratic storm motion seen in previous integrations of the GFDL model has been nearly eliminated with dramatic improvements in track forecasts during the first 48 h of the prediction. Using the new scheme, the average 24-h and 48-h forecast error for the four test cases was 58 and 94 km, respectively, compared with 143 and 191 km for the noninitalized forecasts starting from the global analysis. The a...